5 ms·

Would this baseline include all the accidents from distracted drivers, drunk drivers, drug drivers etc.? Or is it referring to an average human driver who isn't

by rozab 6y ago

Would this baseline include all the accidents from distracted drivers, drunk drivers, drug drivers etc.? Or is it referring to an average human driver who isn't intentionally breaking the law? If the baseline includes all these sorts of human error, I see no issue with holding robots to a higher standard. Imagine if we rolled out robot policemen who only executed black people for no reason at the same rate as humans do.

maxerickson 6y ago
Without meaning to comment on how possible it would be to carry out on a policy level, replacing the worst human drivers with robot drivers that match average human drivers should be an improvement for everyone. It also potentially opens up policy options, or at least makes them easier to choose.
- lftl 6y ago
  Interesting idea. I think there may be feasible political routes to accomplishing that. Tighten up the points system that basically every state uses for deciding when to suspend your license, and simply force those who would normally lose their license into robot driving.
- ksk 6y ago
  What does "worst" mean? Did they get into an accident once or twice, but drive just fine on otherwise? Do they drive bad every single day? etc etc.
  - StanislavPetrov 6y ago
    One easy way to start would be to give basic reflex and reaction tests. On one of my last trips to the supermarket early this year before the COVID lockdowns started, I was on line behind a very elderly old woman (who for some reason had chosen the self-checkout line). She had trouble merely attempting to lift her groceries out of her basket and scan them. She was entirely unable to feed her bills into the feeder without assistance. As I was leaving the supermarket I watched her struggle to open her car door before slowly getting into her car. I sat in my car for a few minutes watching as she struggled mightily to simply back her car out of her parking spot. Here in New York, the roads are filled with elderly people like this. Mental acuity aside, they do not possess anywhere near the reflexes or dexterity to drive a car safely. Nonetheless, they are out there on the roads every day. It would be a trivial issue to implement basic physical and mental acuity tests that should be required in order to have a driver's license. Unfortunately this remains implausible because of the lack of an alternative means of transportation available to these elderly people (which could potentially be provided by self-driving vehicles).
    - ksk 6y ago
      Well, but the point was that human performance on any task has a lot of variability. Therefore - 'worst' - as a label, does not strictly apply in the qualitative sense. Maybe a probabilistic risk model would be more appropriate. What complicates things is that you cannot compare a human to an AV algorithm apples-apples. For even the worst human driver is extremely unlikely to confuse a human on the road with a paper bag - something that a ML classifier algorithm can (if there was a bug). > As I was leaving the supermarket I watched her struggle to open her car door before slowly getting into her car. I sat in my car for a few minutes watching as she struggled mightily to simply back her car out of her parking spot. That is your cue to stay away from such drivers for your own safety. Just like if you see an idiot swerving on the freeway. Or if you hear loud honking and cars braking there is probably something going on. An AV would likely miss such cues unless it was specifically programmed to do so.
aaaxyz 6y ago
>Imagine if we rolled out robot policemen who only executed black people for no reason at the same rate as humans do. Human cops still have to do the killing for now, but that's called predictive policing
superkuh 6y ago
Behaving as a human would is often more important than staying strictly in line with absolute and relative positioning with a road. The semi-permanent snow cover on many roads in 1/3 of the USA that lasts weeks if not months in duration. Humans driving on these snow covered roads form emergent lanes having little to do with absolute positioning or even relative positioning of the curb. They form lanes based on what other humans do. Self-driving cars that depend on knowing absolutely where they are and relatively where they are simply don't and won't function. We need self-driving cars that can behave as a human will for that. And that is a long way off. No autonomous car has shown it can handle these common situations. Until then self-driving cars should not be approved nationally and probably be restricted to the arid and warm states that do not have winter.
- randmeerkat 6y ago
  Tesla just dropped a snow driving beta: https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for-self-driving-performance-in-snowy-conditions/ https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for...
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  I think this is a good point. The best lesson my dad ever gave me back when I was learning how to drive was to 'be predictable.' People don't get in wrecks when everyone behaves as expected. And the rules of the road are largely aimed at guiding that predictability. But in the end, regardless of the written rules, humans behave as humans and a robot driver should behave like other drivers. And it may change based on locality.
- cmrdporcupine 6y ago
  Yes, exactly, this is always the same example I give (in my case the 401 here in Ontario, Canada) -- blizzard in the middle of February, lane markings covered, highly unpredictable road surface, spontaneous temporary lanes, cars working at a crawl, snow plows coming through that you have to move over for, and can't pass, cars or trucks jack-knifed or half in the ditch. This kind of thing happens to varying degrees at least once a year, and I honestly don't think that these scenarios are actually properly in the imagination of the primarily-California-based engineers who work on self-driving. For context, the greater Toronto region is 6 million people, and Great Lakes region from here over to Chicago is multiples of that. Winter is 4-6 months. This is not an insignificant edge case for a small population, and if self-driving can't handle it, no thanks from this driver.
nelsonenzo 6y ago
Sadly, the news around facial recognition and AI seems to imply the government has been happy to roll out exactly that. I guess when the government contractors can profit off self-driving murders we will be good to go. /s
ianhorn 6y ago
I think I read that ninety something perfect of driving deaths or accidents are people being irresponsible in the manner you said, but can’t find a source again, so take it with a grain of salt. I was able to find one that of the 37k driving deaths in 2016, 10-11k involved BAC over .08 and about the same involved speeding. Not knowing the overlap, 10-22k/30k is 27-59% of deaths involving drunk driving or speeding. If it was on the high end of that, then to do better than speeding and/or drinking alone, you have to be at least 2.5x safer than human. I wish there were better stats on the safety of the sort of driver you would let drive you around (e.g. you wouldn’t get in the car with your drunk friend behind the wheel).
kube-system 6y ago
Exactly. For the benefit of passengers, self driving cars should drive as well as a sober, attentive, well-behaving driver. When I get into a car as a passenger today, I already get the benefit of riding with a better than average driver — I can identify and choose not to ride with people who are drunk, inattentive, reckless, etc. That’s the comparison that is a more reasonable baseline expectation.

by rozab 6y ago

maxerickson 6y ago

Without meaning to comment on how possible it would be to carry out on a policy level, replacing the worst human drivers with robot drivers that match average human drivers should be an improvement for everyone. It also potentially opens up policy options, or at least makes them easier to choose.

lftl 6y ago
Interesting idea. I think there may be feasible political routes to accomplishing that. Tighten up the points system that basically every state uses for deciding when to suspend your license, and simply force those who would normally lose their license into robot driving.
ksk 6y ago
What does "worst" mean? Did they get into an accident once or twice, but drive just fine on otherwise? Do they drive bad every single day? etc etc.
- StanislavPetrov 6y ago
  One easy way to start would be to give basic reflex and reaction tests. On one of my last trips to the supermarket early this year before the COVID lockdowns started, I was on line behind a very elderly old woman (who for some reason had chosen the self-checkout line). She had trouble merely attempting to lift her groceries out of her basket and scan them. She was entirely unable to feed her bills into the feeder without assistance. As I was leaving the supermarket I watched her struggle to open her car door before slowly getting into her car. I sat in my car for a few minutes watching as she struggled mightily to simply back her car out of her parking spot. Here in New York, the roads are filled with elderly people like this. Mental acuity aside, they do not possess anywhere near the reflexes or dexterity to drive a car safely. Nonetheless, they are out there on the roads every day. It would be a trivial issue to implement basic physical and mental acuity tests that should be required in order to have a driver's license. Unfortunately this remains implausible because of the lack of an alternative means of transportation available to these elderly people (which could potentially be provided by self-driving vehicles).
  - ksk 6y ago
    Well, but the point was that human performance on any task has a lot of variability. Therefore - 'worst' - as a label, does not strictly apply in the qualitative sense. Maybe a probabilistic risk model would be more appropriate. What complicates things is that you cannot compare a human to an AV algorithm apples-apples. For even the worst human driver is extremely unlikely to confuse a human on the road with a paper bag - something that a ML classifier algorithm can (if there was a bug). > As I was leaving the supermarket I watched her struggle to open her car door before slowly getting into her car. I sat in my car for a few minutes watching as she struggled mightily to simply back her car out of her parking spot. That is your cue to stay away from such drivers for your own safety. Just like if you see an idiot swerving on the freeway. Or if you hear loud honking and cars braking there is probably something going on. An AV would likely miss such cues unless it was specifically programmed to do so.

aaaxyz 6y ago

>Imagine if we rolled out robot policemen who only executed black people for no reason at the same rate as humans do. Human cops still have to do the killing for now, but that's called predictive policing

superkuh 6y ago

Behaving as a human would is often more important than staying strictly in line with absolute and relative positioning with a road. The semi-permanent snow cover on many roads in 1/3 of the USA that lasts weeks if not months in duration. Humans driving on these snow covered roads form emergent lanes having little to do with absolute positioning or even relative positioning of the curb. They form lanes based on what other humans do. Self-driving cars that depend on knowing absolutely where they are and relatively where they are simply don't and won't function. We need self-driving cars that can behave as a human will for that. And that is a long way off. No autonomous car has shown it can handle these common situations. Until then self-driving cars should not be approved nationally and probably be restricted to the arid and warm states that do not have winter.

randmeerkat 6y ago
Tesla just dropped a snow driving beta: https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for-self-driving-performance-in-snowy-conditions/ https://www.teslaoracle.com/2020/12/29/fsd-beta-8-tested-for...
rootusrootus 6y ago
I think this is a good point. The best lesson my dad ever gave me back when I was learning how to drive was to 'be predictable.' People don't get in wrecks when everyone behaves as expected. And the rules of the road are largely aimed at guiding that predictability. But in the end, regardless of the written rules, humans behave as humans and a robot driver should behave like other drivers. And it may change based on locality.
cmrdporcupine 6y ago
Yes, exactly, this is always the same example I give (in my case the 401 here in Ontario, Canada) -- blizzard in the middle of February, lane markings covered, highly unpredictable road surface, spontaneous temporary lanes, cars working at a crawl, snow plows coming through that you have to move over for, and can't pass, cars or trucks jack-knifed or half in the ditch. This kind of thing happens to varying degrees at least once a year, and I honestly don't think that these scenarios are actually properly in the imagination of the primarily-California-based engineers who work on self-driving. For context, the greater Toronto region is 6 million people, and Great Lakes region from here over to Chicago is multiples of that. Winter is 4-6 months. This is not an insignificant edge case for a small population, and if self-driving can't handle it, no thanks from this driver.

nelsonenzo 6y ago

Sadly, the news around facial recognition and AI seems to imply the government has been happy to roll out exactly that. I guess when the government contractors can profit off self-driving murders we will be good to go. /s

ianhorn 6y ago

I think I read that ninety something perfect of driving deaths or accidents are people being irresponsible in the manner you said, but can’t find a source again, so take it with a grain of salt. I was able to find one that of the 37k driving deaths in 2016, 10-11k involved BAC over .08 and about the same involved speeding. Not knowing the overlap, 10-22k/30k is 27-59% of deaths involving drunk driving or speeding. If it was on the high end of that, then to do better than speeding and/or drinking alone, you have to be at least 2.5x safer than human. I wish there were better stats on the safety of the sort of driver you would let drive you around (e.g. you wouldn’t get in the car with your drunk friend behind the wheel).

kube-system 6y ago

Exactly. For the benefit of passengers, self driving cars should drive as well as a sober, attentive, well-behaving driver. When I get into a car as a passenger today, I already get the benefit of riding with a better than average driver — I can identify and choose not to ride with people who are drunk, inattentive, reckless, etc. That’s the comparison that is a more reasonable baseline expectation.