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How far do we think human drivers' safety level ranges? Like most drivers I'm falsely convinced I'm a safer driver than most, but still I expect quite a large r

How far do we think human drivers' safety level ranges? Like most drivers I'm falsely convinced I'm a safer driver than most, but still I expect quite a large range (say a factor 10 between 10th and 90th percentile?). It seems reasonable for self-driving cars to be expected to improve safety over human driving for the large majority of drivers, not just half of them.

dougmwne 6y ago
But how false is that impression that we are safer than average? I don't drive drunk, drugged, tired or distracted. I avoid driving in bad weather. I make sure I have good tires and brakes. I don't intentionally speed. I bet most accidents are caused by the above. I'm not interested in a self-driving car that drives like it's checking its cellphone after 3 beers.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  Exactly this. Some people think that Tesla's autopilot is just great, better than a human driver much of the time. As a Tesla owner, I am flabbergasted by that. At best, AP drives like I do. That is, perfectly straight and between the lines down a straight road. With any curves, and sometimes just on straight roads, it drives like a high-functioning alcoholic. I can't imagine how some people drive normally where they think that qualifies as 'good driving.' Some of us are very attentive drivers -- I never look at my cell phone, I never drink and drive, I don't drive when I'm tired, I avoid driving in inclement weather or at night unless strictly necessary, I am a very defensive driver. I don't get tickets, I don't get in wrecks, and this is by design -- I take great pains to reduce my exposure to these risks. Personally I think the old joke about how 90% of drivers think they're better than average is both true, and also just a funny joke. We see a lot of perfectly good drivers on the road, but we don't notice them ... because they're perfectly good. There's only a few lanes on any given road, though, so if 10% of drivers in near proximity are crappy drivers then it practically shuts down the road. We notice that, and assume that most drivers are crap. Wrong.
  - sliken 6y ago
    I have a Tesla and I agree that it drives somewhat poorly compared to a Human ... when there's no surprises. Handling lanes and turns just moderately well, but not great. However it frequently notices things before I do. Lane splitting motorcycles approaching for the rear for example. Or a car in front of me slowing down, but not using the brake lights. It also does quite well when a car brakes in front of me, especially if it's a surprising slow down like on an onramp where I'm looking over my shoulder to merge. So while I've not had an accident of any kind in over 25 years, I do appreciate the car noticing before I do. So while I don't let the Tesla drive autonomously, I do feel like I'm a much safer driver with the active assistance from the car and that the Tesla (even with the same sensors) will continue to improve. Not sure if they will hit full autonmous on the current hardware, they might need another revision (to add CPU and better sensors) before they drive better than most humans.
    - rootusrootus 6y ago
      I don't disagree that at times AP has been helpful to me. The sensors do pick up on things, and if you are actively paying attention and ready to take over at a moment's notice, it is probably a net positive. Though on average, for me, things like the forward collision warning tend to be more nuisance than help. Startling, and of the half dozen times it's activated for me, once was me needing to notice that traffic ahead and suddenly stopped, the rest are things like right-turning drivers that are way out of the way but the car panics about them. Even on 'late' mode. The technology will certainly improve, however. Probably going to be quite a while, if ever, before I let it do all the driving, though :). At least partly because I enjoy driving.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
the8472 6y ago
> It seems reasonable for self-driving cars to be expected to improve safety over human driving for the large majority of drivers, not just half of them. Depends, do you want to save lives? Then self-driving cars only need to be a little safer than the drivers they replace. Which means if infrequent drivers with little experience that get replaced by robotaxis of average reliability could be a net-win in saved lives. Delaying their deployment until technology arrives that beats the most conservative drivers just means accepting a higher death toll.
- stkdump 6y ago
  > if infrequent drivers with little experience that get replaced by robotaxis of average reliability could be a net-win in saved lives. I don't know if frequent drivers are inherently safer drivers than infrequent drivers. There might be the negative effect of reduced attention due to more 'routine'. But I seriously doubt that frequent drivers drive so much safer that they negate the effect of being exposed to the risk so much more. Is a person that drives 10x more than the average driver more than 10x safer? Why replace cars first, that don't get on the street a lot? And how do you organize deploying SDCs to infrequent drivers first? Unless those people don't own the cars anymore, but rent them, in which case I agree. That would increase utilizations of these cars.
  - the8472 6y ago
    > Unless those people don't own the cars anymore, but rent them Yeah, that was the idea (hence robotaxis, not owned ones). It seems feasible especially in urban areas where car ownership is not essential so the remaining uses could be replaced by rented autonomous ones.
amanaplanacanal 6y ago
If you never drive after drinking or while sleepy, you probably are a safer driver than most.

dougmwne 6y ago

But how false is that impression that we are safer than average? I don't drive drunk, drugged, tired or distracted. I avoid driving in bad weather. I make sure I have good tires and brakes. I don't intentionally speed. I bet most accidents are caused by the above. I'm not interested in a self-driving car that drives like it's checking its cellphone after 3 beers.

rootusrootus 6y ago
Exactly this. Some people think that Tesla's autopilot is just great, better than a human driver much of the time. As a Tesla owner, I am flabbergasted by that. At best, AP drives like I do. That is, perfectly straight and between the lines down a straight road. With any curves, and sometimes just on straight roads, it drives like a high-functioning alcoholic. I can't imagine how some people drive normally where they think that qualifies as 'good driving.' Some of us are very attentive drivers -- I never look at my cell phone, I never drink and drive, I don't drive when I'm tired, I avoid driving in inclement weather or at night unless strictly necessary, I am a very defensive driver. I don't get tickets, I don't get in wrecks, and this is by design -- I take great pains to reduce my exposure to these risks. Personally I think the old joke about how 90% of drivers think they're better than average is both true, and also just a funny joke. We see a lot of perfectly good drivers on the road, but we don't notice them ... because they're perfectly good. There's only a few lanes on any given road, though, so if 10% of drivers in near proximity are crappy drivers then it practically shuts down the road. We notice that, and assume that most drivers are crap. Wrong.
- sliken 6y ago
  I have a Tesla and I agree that it drives somewhat poorly compared to a Human ... when there's no surprises. Handling lanes and turns just moderately well, but not great. However it frequently notices things before I do. Lane splitting motorcycles approaching for the rear for example. Or a car in front of me slowing down, but not using the brake lights. It also does quite well when a car brakes in front of me, especially if it's a surprising slow down like on an onramp where I'm looking over my shoulder to merge. So while I've not had an accident of any kind in over 25 years, I do appreciate the car noticing before I do. So while I don't let the Tesla drive autonomously, I do feel like I'm a much safer driver with the active assistance from the car and that the Tesla (even with the same sensors) will continue to improve. Not sure if they will hit full autonmous on the current hardware, they might need another revision (to add CPU and better sensors) before they drive better than most humans.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    I don't disagree that at times AP has been helpful to me. The sensors do pick up on things, and if you are actively paying attention and ready to take over at a moment's notice, it is probably a net positive. Though on average, for me, things like the forward collision warning tend to be more nuisance than help. Startling, and of the half dozen times it's activated for me, once was me needing to notice that traffic ahead and suddenly stopped, the rest are things like right-turning drivers that are way out of the way but the car panics about them. Even on 'late' mode. The technology will certainly improve, however. Probably going to be quite a while, if ever, before I let it do all the driving, though :). At least partly because I enjoy driving.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

the8472 6y ago

> It seems reasonable for self-driving cars to be expected to improve safety over human driving for the large majority of drivers, not just half of them. Depends, do you want to save lives? Then self-driving cars only need to be a little safer than the drivers they replace. Which means if infrequent drivers with little experience that get replaced by robotaxis of average reliability could be a net-win in saved lives. Delaying their deployment until technology arrives that beats the most conservative drivers just means accepting a higher death toll.

stkdump 6y ago
> if infrequent drivers with little experience that get replaced by robotaxis of average reliability could be a net-win in saved lives. I don't know if frequent drivers are inherently safer drivers than infrequent drivers. There might be the negative effect of reduced attention due to more 'routine'. But I seriously doubt that frequent drivers drive so much safer that they negate the effect of being exposed to the risk so much more. Is a person that drives 10x more than the average driver more than 10x safer? Why replace cars first, that don't get on the street a lot? And how do you organize deploying SDCs to infrequent drivers first? Unless those people don't own the cars anymore, but rent them, in which case I agree. That would increase utilizations of these cars.
- the8472 6y ago
  > Unless those people don't own the cars anymore, but rent them Yeah, that was the idea (hence robotaxis, not owned ones). It seems feasible especially in urban areas where car ownership is not essential so the remaining uses could be replaced by rented autonomous ones.

amanaplanacanal 6y ago

If you never drive after drinking or while sleepy, you probably are a safer driver than most.