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> Sweden tried this with catastrophic end results. Tried what? They shut care homes as an afterthought, not as part of a plan to protect people (closing care h

by noja 6y ago

> Sweden tried this with catastrophic end results. Tried what? They shut care homes as an afterthought, not as part of a plan to protect people (closing care homes came later).

vesinisa 6y ago
Sweden initially tried to achieve herd immunity. It failed because it is impossible to stop the virus from spreading to the vulnerable population.
- polack 6y ago
  Stop spreading lies. No official source have EVER said they where trying to achieve herd immunity, they have only denied it.
  - vesinisa 6y ago
    Nope, that's what they kind of started saying after the herd immunity experiment failed. Back in May they were still happy to go on record to say that herd immunity was part of the Swedish strategy: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-... But by July antibody tests showed that herd immunity was still very far away. Tegnell has since claimed it was never their goal, which to me sounds like hand washing. EDIT: As pointed, Swedish representatives later asked the article to state that herd immunity was not their goal after all - you could almost forgive the journalist for the confusion. Here is Tegnell instead strategizing in private about letting the virus spread in school children to hasten herd immunity: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-...
    - cygx 6y ago
      But note the correction at the bottom of that page: April 27, 2020 An earlier version of this story said the Swedish government is pursuing a strategy of "herd immunity." Swedish officials say their plan was to impose limited restrictions instead of a lockdown but have denied they were purposely pursuing a strategy of herd immunity.
    - polack 6y ago
      Herd immunity is a potential side-effect of a virus hitting a population, it was never the strategy! If you have a pandemic with a new virus it would be kind off incompetent of the epidemiologists to not try to calculate if the population will reach herd immunity or not. That does NOT mean that heard immunity is the goal. So where is your source on herd immunity strategy? Or will you just keep on spreading lies? EDIT: Off course Sweden, just as Finland admits, calculated and talked about herd immunity. But there is not a single shred of proof that they picked that as a strategy. Do you really think everyone at the FHM (health agency) colluded on doing this behind the backs of the population and then they all keep it a secret? Why? What would there motives be?
      - scoopertrooper 6y ago
        The Guardian article definitely gives the game away. I made a comment earlier featuring some of the more damning quotes from the architect of the Swedish strategy. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25580518 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25580518
  - scoopertrooper 6y ago
    They most certainly did try to pursue herd immunity, but didn't message it publically. This can be seen from emails recently unveiled by a freedom of information request. In which, Anders Tegnell states “One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster”. When a colleague stated that such measures might increase the elderly death rate, he replied “10% might be worth it?”. A number of other emails were deleted by Tegnell because “I delete a lot of emails that I do not consider relevant in a way that needs to be recorded”. We can only speculate what Tegnell deemed unworthy of our consideration. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-... https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/01410768209452...
    - brmgb 6y ago
      > They most certainly did try to pursue herd immunity, but didn't message it publically. The email published by The Guardian don't support this. He is mainly discussing the impact of keeping school open balancing the potential death in the elderly population against the immunity boost. The official message from Sweden has always been they were trying to keep the virus manageable while minimizing the impact on society. This seems to have resulted in more deaths that their direct neighbors (but less than other countries in Europe). History will be able to judge with the full data. As an aside, The Guardian coverage on coronavirus is generally awful. They usually deeply misrepresent/misunderstand what's happening in France for example.
      - scoopertrooper 6y ago
        > The email published by The Guardian don't support this. He is mainly discussing the impact of keeping school open balancing the potential death in the elderly population against the immunity boost. What is this "immunity boost" you speak of? It sounds like a less intellectually brave version of herd immunity to me. Tegnell, unlike some, did not mince words when he said “One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster”. He obviously had that as an object in mind when making decisions. Herd immunity (or 'immunity boosting') was a disastrous policy and the link below goes into some detail as to the basic conceit of the position. > This is especially clear in Sweden, where the authorities publicly predicted 40% seroconversion in Stockholm by May 2020; the actual IgG seroprevalence was around 15% https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/01410768209452...
- Reason077 6y ago
  Another reason why herd immunity won't work is because natural Covid-19 immunity seems to have a pretty short duration based on my own experience. Source: Had Covid in March 2020, then again in December 2020. Only the second time was confirmed by PCR test (tests were not readily available back in March), but the symptoms are exactly the same so I'm convinced I've had it twice now. Immunity doesn't last 9 months!
  - hef19898 6y ago
    Covid shares a lot of symptoms with other diseases. It is impossible to reliably say you already had Covid back in March, it could be a lot different things.
    - Reason077 6y ago
      Yes, I cannot prove anything with certainty. But the symptoms are very distinctive to me (quite different from a 'flu, for example), and like I said, I experienced virtually identical symptoms and progression both times. So, personally, I'm highly convinced I've had Covid twice.
  - refurb 6y ago
    Wow. You’re sharing you personal anecdote based on symptoms (not a confirm diagnosis) and claiming we should be changing our global approach to Covid? Don’t do that please.
    - Reason077 6y ago
      Wait, what? I never said anything about "changing our global approach to Covid". And just to be clear, I have a PCR-confirmed diagnosis.
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        You have a single PCR confirmed diagnosis. For your anecdote to be useful, you need two.
      - 6y ago
- catears 6y ago
  This is incorrect, please refer to the press conferences held by FHM between march and june. I think every other one had a question about herd immunity (mostly from international media) and that herd immunity was not the strategy that sweden focused on.
  - dessant 6y ago
    What goal was Sweden pursuing by taking no real action in the beginning of the pandemic? The reasons might be unclear, but the lack of action has been properly documented.
    - catears 6y ago
      I think this is actually incorrect. Again, there is so much misinformation about this that I don't blame anyone. I think there was quite a lot of things being done. I believe the goal was to keep people informed about the dangers of the virus and how to protect themselves, the most important parts being to wash your hands and social distance. I think they also provide information tailored to different sectors (like healthcare) and advise them on how to fight the virus. It's then up to the different sectors how they handle their specific situation. I think that Sweden is perceived to not take action when it did. I think this comes from the politicians stepping aside and "transferring the leadership" to FHM (doing the opposite would be political suicide in Sweden). In some other countries you have had politicians boasting how good their response is. I've even seen politicians claim that people of their race just handle the disease better. FHM doesn't have the same vested interest in looking good.

by noja 6y ago

> Sweden tried this with catastrophic end results. Tried what? They shut care homes as an afterthought, not as part of a plan to protect people (closing care homes came later).

vesinisa 6y ago

Sweden initially tried to achieve herd immunity. It failed because it is impossible to stop the virus from spreading to the vulnerable population.

polack 6y ago
Stop spreading lies. No official source have EVER said they where trying to achieve herd immunity, they have only denied it.
- vesinisa 6y ago
  Nope, that's what they kind of started saying after the herd immunity experiment failed. Back in May they were still happy to go on record to say that herd immunity was part of the Swedish strategy: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-... But by July antibody tests showed that herd immunity was still very far away. Tegnell has since claimed it was never their goal, which to me sounds like hand washing. EDIT: As pointed, Swedish representatives later asked the article to state that herd immunity was not their goal after all - you could almost forgive the journalist for the confusion. Here is Tegnell instead strategizing in private about letting the virus spread in school children to hasten herd immunity: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-...
  - cygx 6y ago
    But note the correction at the bottom of that page: April 27, 2020 An earlier version of this story said the Swedish government is pursuing a strategy of "herd immunity." Swedish officials say their plan was to impose limited restrictions instead of a lockdown but have denied they were purposely pursuing a strategy of herd immunity.
  - polack 6y ago
    Herd immunity is a potential side-effect of a virus hitting a population, it was never the strategy! If you have a pandemic with a new virus it would be kind off incompetent of the epidemiologists to not try to calculate if the population will reach herd immunity or not. That does NOT mean that heard immunity is the goal. So where is your source on herd immunity strategy? Or will you just keep on spreading lies? EDIT: Off course Sweden, just as Finland admits, calculated and talked about herd immunity. But there is not a single shred of proof that they picked that as a strategy. Do you really think everyone at the FHM (health agency) colluded on doing this behind the backs of the population and then they all keep it a secret? Why? What would there motives be?
    - scoopertrooper 6y ago
      The Guardian article definitely gives the game away. I made a comment earlier featuring some of the more damning quotes from the architect of the Swedish strategy. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25580518 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25580518
- scoopertrooper 6y ago
  They most certainly did try to pursue herd immunity, but didn't message it publically. This can be seen from emails recently unveiled by a freedom of information request. In which, Anders Tegnell states “One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster”. When a colleague stated that such measures might increase the elderly death rate, he replied “10% might be worth it?”. A number of other emails were deleted by Tegnell because “I delete a lot of emails that I do not consider relevant in a way that needs to be recorded”. We can only speculate what Tegnell deemed unworthy of our consideration. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-... https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/01410768209452...
  - brmgb 6y ago
    > They most certainly did try to pursue herd immunity, but didn't message it publically. The email published by The Guardian don't support this. He is mainly discussing the impact of keeping school open balancing the potential death in the elderly population against the immunity boost. The official message from Sweden has always been they were trying to keep the virus manageable while minimizing the impact on society. This seems to have resulted in more deaths that their direct neighbors (but less than other countries in Europe). History will be able to judge with the full data. As an aside, The Guardian coverage on coronavirus is generally awful. They usually deeply misrepresent/misunderstand what's happening in France for example.
    - scoopertrooper 6y ago
      > The email published by The Guardian don't support this. He is mainly discussing the impact of keeping school open balancing the potential death in the elderly population against the immunity boost. What is this "immunity boost" you speak of? It sounds like a less intellectually brave version of herd immunity to me. Tegnell, unlike some, did not mince words when he said “One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster”. He obviously had that as an object in mind when making decisions. Herd immunity (or 'immunity boosting') was a disastrous policy and the link below goes into some detail as to the basic conceit of the position. > This is especially clear in Sweden, where the authorities publicly predicted 40% seroconversion in Stockholm by May 2020; the actual IgG seroprevalence was around 15% https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/01410768209452...
Reason077 6y ago
Another reason why herd immunity won't work is because natural Covid-19 immunity seems to have a pretty short duration based on my own experience. Source: Had Covid in March 2020, then again in December 2020. Only the second time was confirmed by PCR test (tests were not readily available back in March), but the symptoms are exactly the same so I'm convinced I've had it twice now. Immunity doesn't last 9 months!
- hef19898 6y ago
  Covid shares a lot of symptoms with other diseases. It is impossible to reliably say you already had Covid back in March, it could be a lot different things.
  - Reason077 6y ago
    Yes, I cannot prove anything with certainty. But the symptoms are very distinctive to me (quite different from a 'flu, for example), and like I said, I experienced virtually identical symptoms and progression both times. So, personally, I'm highly convinced I've had Covid twice.
- refurb 6y ago
  Wow. You’re sharing you personal anecdote based on symptoms (not a confirm diagnosis) and claiming we should be changing our global approach to Covid? Don’t do that please.
  - Reason077 6y ago
    Wait, what? I never said anything about "changing our global approach to Covid". And just to be clear, I have a PCR-confirmed diagnosis.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      You have a single PCR confirmed diagnosis. For your anecdote to be useful, you need two.
    - 6y ago
catears 6y ago
This is incorrect, please refer to the press conferences held by FHM between march and june. I think every other one had a question about herd immunity (mostly from international media) and that herd immunity was not the strategy that sweden focused on.
- dessant 6y ago
  What goal was Sweden pursuing by taking no real action in the beginning of the pandemic? The reasons might be unclear, but the lack of action has been properly documented.
  - catears 6y ago
    I think this is actually incorrect. Again, there is so much misinformation about this that I don't blame anyone. I think there was quite a lot of things being done. I believe the goal was to keep people informed about the dangers of the virus and how to protect themselves, the most important parts being to wash your hands and social distance. I think they also provide information tailored to different sectors (like healthcare) and advise them on how to fight the virus. It's then up to the different sectors how they handle their specific situation. I think that Sweden is perceived to not take action when it did. I think this comes from the politicians stepping aside and "transferring the leadership" to FHM (doing the opposite would be political suicide in Sweden). In some other countries you have had politicians boasting how good their response is. I've even seen politicians claim that people of their race just handle the disease better. FHM doesn't have the same vested interest in looking good.