3 ms·

> looking at current UK mortality rates. These are now rivalling the first wave Are you sure? This is the data I'm looking at: https://ourworldindata.org/coro

by lucb1e 6y ago

> looking at current UK mortality rates. These are now rivalling the first wave Are you sure? This is the data I'm looking at: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-02-22..latest&country=NLD~DEU~ESP~GBR&region=Europe&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases_per_million&pickerSort=desc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS... This link goes to "confirmed deaths" per million people, see also the "case fatality rate" setting. The former is about 6.8 now versus 13.8 at the peak in April; the latter is 3% versus 15% at the peak in April. There are half as many deaths and a fifth of the deaths per case. That's not even close to "rivaling it despite being geared up", at least from this data. Is this data wrong?

oakesm9 6y ago
Here’s the official UK data: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths Deaths are a bit lower. Cases are higher. Hospitalisations are about the same as the previous peek, but heading further up.
- grey-area 6y ago
  Cases can't really be compared with the first wave because of significantly higher testing (450k per day now vs 60k per day in May, or 20k per day in April at the peak of hospitalisations).
  - oakesm9 6y ago
    Yes, that’s true, but neither can deaths as more is known about how to treat severe cases.
  - gsnedders 6y ago
    Note that the official data on deaths only includes those confirmed (through a positive test) to have COVID-19; this almost certainly understates the total number of deaths in the first wave due to lack of testing capacity.
    - lucb1e 6y ago
      There's no almost about it, if you look at the percentage of positive tests.
- rjknight 6y ago
  Deaths are also a lagging indicator. This happened in the first wave too.
  - grey-area 6y ago
    If you look at the charts you’ll see a marked difference in outcomes after hospitalisation. Deaths are significantly lower this time, probably a combination of the most vulnerable dying in the first wave and better treatments.

by lucb1e 6y ago

oakesm9 6y ago

Here’s the official UK data: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths Deaths are a bit lower. Cases are higher. Hospitalisations are about the same as the previous peek, but heading further up.

grey-area 6y ago
Cases can't really be compared with the first wave because of significantly higher testing (450k per day now vs 60k per day in May, or 20k per day in April at the peak of hospitalisations).
- oakesm9 6y ago
  Yes, that’s true, but neither can deaths as more is known about how to treat severe cases.
- gsnedders 6y ago
  Note that the official data on deaths only includes those confirmed (through a positive test) to have COVID-19; this almost certainly understates the total number of deaths in the first wave due to lack of testing capacity.
  - lucb1e 6y ago
    There's no almost about it, if you look at the percentage of positive tests.
rjknight 6y ago
Deaths are also a lagging indicator. This happened in the first wave too.
- grey-area 6y ago
  If you look at the charts you’ll see a marked difference in outcomes after hospitalisation. Deaths are significantly lower this time, probably a combination of the most vulnerable dying in the first wave and better treatments.