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More Americans will die of covid in 2021 than have in 2020. The newly-available vaccines will help, but lots of people won't take them just as lots of people h

More Americans will die of covid in 2021 than have in 2020. The newly-available vaccines will help, but lots of people won't take them just as lots of people haven't worn and still don't wear masks. The effective reproduction number won't be less than one anytime in the near future. The important point is that in January 2020 the percentage of the general public who were contagious was very low. Still, 350,000 people died this year. In January of 2021, the contagious percentage will be much higher. That more people will die in the following year is simple arithmetic.

snuxoll 6y ago
And yet people will continue to say “but only 0.x% of people die”.
- xref 6y ago
  Or “just require at-risk groups to isolate so the rest of us can get back to our lives.” Sometimes the callousness and selfishness is truly heartbreaking.
  - jessaustin 6y ago
    Keep in mind that such things are said by people who are themselves hurting. In functioning societies, the government provides material support to citizens when it halts commerce. Wealthy and powerful people choose that USA does not have such a functioning society. They are our true enemies, and they only benefit when we confuse them with people like ourselves who are in untenable situations.
  - ketamine__ 6y ago
    I personally think it is callous and selfish to force healthy people not to work and stay inside.
silexia 6y ago
To add to this - I have heard people say, "There is just more testing being done, which is why you have more positives." I personally needed a Covid test yesterday when I had a number of symptoms. I live in the liberal / Democratic state of Washington, where most of the public officials have taken Covid seriously. To my horror, I discovered it was VERY difficult to get a Covid test. I searched online for facilities that did testing, and called 10 of them. Most of them either put me into eternal hold or told me I wasn't an existing patient. Finally, I drove to a Walgreens after being told by a rep that I would be tested there. Nope, pharmacist refused. Finally, I went o a private testing company. I spent 4-5 hours calling and driving just to get this done. Imagine how many people are quitting sooner than I did and actually have it.
- michaelmrose 6y ago
  You can schedule a test online. Took me 3 days to get tested and 1 day to get the results.
- james2441139 6y ago
  I liner is WA too (Bothell), and got a test scheduled very fast, within 24 hours I got tested. Got results within 12 hours. My provider is Kaiser Permanente, so perhaps they are better in getting testing done quickly.
slowmovintarget 6y ago
The reasons to wait for the vaccine are very different (and legitimate) than the reasons not to wear masks. The vaccines seem to be causing serious side effects. People are going into anaphylaxis (at higher rates than usual) with the vaccines. Bell's palsy, 105 degree fevers... This isn't like the annual flu shot, or getting vaccinated for measles, where you get the shot and that's it. Holding off on vaccinations for SARS-COV-2 is not at all the same as the stupidity of not wearing a mask.
- sofixa 6y ago
  > The vaccines seem to be causing serious side effects. People are going into anaphylaxis (at higher rates than usual) with the vaccines. Bell's palsy, 105 degree fevers... This isn't like the annual flu shot, or getting vaccinated for measles, where you get the shot and that's it. Source? I'd had heard about very rare allergic reactions, but all the rest is news to me.
  - slowmovintarget 6y ago
    Bell's Palsy: https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20201217/fda-says-vaccine-recipients-should-be-monitored-for-facial-paralysis https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2020121... https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/coronavirus-vaccine-side-effects.html https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/... Fever: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2773790 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...
    - jessaustin 6y ago
      First link: ...the rate of Bell’s palsy in the clinical trials is lower than the overall rate in the general population... Second: FDA scientists have said that the documented cases of Bell’s palsy are “consistent with the expected background rate in the general population”... Third: The adverse effects of the vaccine—even if, at worst, they all happen at once—are transient and a normal sign of reactogenicity signaling an effective immune response. But I worry that they could be a major barrier to vaccine uptake. Reading is fundamental.

snuxoll 6y ago

And yet people will continue to say “but only 0.x% of people die”.

xref 6y ago
Or “just require at-risk groups to isolate so the rest of us can get back to our lives.” Sometimes the callousness and selfishness is truly heartbreaking.
- jessaustin 6y ago
  Keep in mind that such things are said by people who are themselves hurting. In functioning societies, the government provides material support to citizens when it halts commerce. Wealthy and powerful people choose that USA does not have such a functioning society. They are our true enemies, and they only benefit when we confuse them with people like ourselves who are in untenable situations.
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  I personally think it is callous and selfish to force healthy people not to work and stay inside.

silexia 6y ago

To add to this - I have heard people say, "There is just more testing being done, which is why you have more positives." I personally needed a Covid test yesterday when I had a number of symptoms. I live in the liberal / Democratic state of Washington, where most of the public officials have taken Covid seriously. To my horror, I discovered it was VERY difficult to get a Covid test. I searched online for facilities that did testing, and called 10 of them. Most of them either put me into eternal hold or told me I wasn't an existing patient. Finally, I drove to a Walgreens after being told by a rep that I would be tested there. Nope, pharmacist refused. Finally, I went o a private testing company. I spent 4-5 hours calling and driving just to get this done. Imagine how many people are quitting sooner than I did and actually have it.

michaelmrose 6y ago
You can schedule a test online. Took me 3 days to get tested and 1 day to get the results.
james2441139 6y ago
I liner is WA too (Bothell), and got a test scheduled very fast, within 24 hours I got tested. Got results within 12 hours. My provider is Kaiser Permanente, so perhaps they are better in getting testing done quickly.

slowmovintarget 6y ago

The reasons to wait for the vaccine are very different (and legitimate) than the reasons not to wear masks. The vaccines seem to be causing serious side effects. People are going into anaphylaxis (at higher rates than usual) with the vaccines. Bell's palsy, 105 degree fevers... This isn't like the annual flu shot, or getting vaccinated for measles, where you get the shot and that's it. Holding off on vaccinations for SARS-COV-2 is not at all the same as the stupidity of not wearing a mask.

sofixa 6y ago
> The vaccines seem to be causing serious side effects. People are going into anaphylaxis (at higher rates than usual) with the vaccines. Bell's palsy, 105 degree fevers... This isn't like the annual flu shot, or getting vaccinated for measles, where you get the shot and that's it. Source? I'd had heard about very rare allergic reactions, but all the rest is news to me.
- slowmovintarget 6y ago
  Bell's Palsy: https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20201217/fda-says-vaccine-recipients-should-be-monitored-for-facial-paralysis https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2020121... https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/coronavirus-vaccine-side-effects.html https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/... Fever: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2773790 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...
  - jessaustin 6y ago
    First link: ...the rate of Bell’s palsy in the clinical trials is lower than the overall rate in the general population... Second: FDA scientists have said that the documented cases of Bell’s palsy are “consistent with the expected background rate in the general population”... Third: The adverse effects of the vaccine—even if, at worst, they all happen at once—are transient and a normal sign of reactogenicity signaling an effective immune response. But I worry that they could be a major barrier to vaccine uptake. Reading is fundamental.