3 ms·

>All in all the result is a vaccine much faster but with all the usual rigor. It's not all the usual rigor because vaccines can have side effects that only sho

>All in all the result is a vaccine much faster but with all the usual rigor. It's not all the usual rigor because vaccines can have side effects that only show up one or more years later, and it's literally impossible to test for such side effects without observing people who've taken the vaccine for at least a year afterwards.

arcticbull 6y ago
Pretty much anything can have side effects that can only show up at a time interval longer than the measured time interval, that’s kind of the Nyquist theorem, the thing is, these kinds of vaccines have understood risk profiles. Yes literally anything can happen literally anytime, but we can guide our fears based on past experiences. I would turn it around and say unless you have some reason why you would think that this particular vaccine design methodology will lead itself to having longer lead time side effects, a year of study is just fine.
- LarvaFX 6y ago
  > literally anything can happen literally anytime, but we can guide our fears based on past experiences Excellent.
  - biotico 6y ago
    Not so fast... fear / gauging safety isn’t strictly based on past experience, it’s also based on past inexperience. The reason humans range from support of radical change to support of status quo when it comes to the known and unknown is a level of awareness that logic and experience can be defied for a better outcome in some situations. Our level of scientific understanding during our lifetime may always be as that of those that believed that Earth was generally flat or those that had only just accepted that the Earth revolved around the Sun in what seemed to be a circle; both theories were and still may be held by some as truths, and perhaps to some benefit, but both are widely accepted to be incorrect now. Fear is the mind-killer, but don’t confuse our innate questioning of what seems best and obvious to some for ignorant lack of acceptance of known truth. We can neither say there is no truth, nor that we know it, until we know it, and the jury is out about who knows it, except for those that believe in it being able to be known by someone.
oblio 6y ago
At the current rate of infection, that would probably mean at least 80 million infected (more like 400-500 million in 1 year, since the infection rate now is much, much higher than that in February), and at least 1 million dead (again, more like 5-10 million due to the increased infection rate). Even the worst vaccines we have had a defect/side effect rate much lower than that, I think the narcolepsy inducing one did it 1:10000 or even less. And it was narcolepsy, not death. Bad vaccines seem to be better than Covid by several orders of magnitude...

arcticbull 6y ago

Pretty much anything can have side effects that can only show up at a time interval longer than the measured time interval, that’s kind of the Nyquist theorem, the thing is, these kinds of vaccines have understood risk profiles. Yes literally anything can happen literally anytime, but we can guide our fears based on past experiences. I would turn it around and say unless you have some reason why you would think that this particular vaccine design methodology will lead itself to having longer lead time side effects, a year of study is just fine.

LarvaFX 6y ago
> literally anything can happen literally anytime, but we can guide our fears based on past experiences Excellent.
- biotico 6y ago
  Not so fast... fear / gauging safety isn’t strictly based on past experience, it’s also based on past inexperience. The reason humans range from support of radical change to support of status quo when it comes to the known and unknown is a level of awareness that logic and experience can be defied for a better outcome in some situations. Our level of scientific understanding during our lifetime may always be as that of those that believed that Earth was generally flat or those that had only just accepted that the Earth revolved around the Sun in what seemed to be a circle; both theories were and still may be held by some as truths, and perhaps to some benefit, but both are widely accepted to be incorrect now. Fear is the mind-killer, but don’t confuse our innate questioning of what seems best and obvious to some for ignorant lack of acceptance of known truth. We can neither say there is no truth, nor that we know it, until we know it, and the jury is out about who knows it, except for those that believe in it being able to be known by someone.

oblio 6y ago

At the current rate of infection, that would probably mean at least 80 million infected (more like 400-500 million in 1 year, since the infection rate now is much, much higher than that in February), and at least 1 million dead (again, more like 5-10 million due to the increased infection rate). Even the worst vaccines we have had a defect/side effect rate much lower than that, I think the narcolepsy inducing one did it 1:10000 or even less. And it was narcolepsy, not death. Bad vaccines seem to be better than Covid by several orders of magnitude...