The best evidence right now suggests that B.1.1.7 is significantly more trasmissible, but doesn't produce less (or more!) serious cases. (See the cohort matchin

The best evidence right now suggests that B.1.1.7 is significantly more trasmissible, but doesn't produce less (or more!) serious cases. (See the cohort matching study in this week's PHE report on the variant[0]). Maybe a statistically significant difference will emerge once we have more data, but at least for now it's better to not assume that. But let's say for argument's sake that the new variant is indeed half as serious, while being 70% more transmissive. That gives you one single multiplicative change in hospital utilization, but a permanent change to the exponent of the epidemic growth curve. The multiplicative benefit will basically get nullified by the increased growth in a week or two, and after that it is all downside. [0] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948152/Technical_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...