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How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? They got a lot of coverage in [social] media, but what's the marginal impact they have, given their

How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? They got a lot of coverage in [social] media, but what's the marginal impact they have, given their frequency? It's important to establish the actual significant causes of issues, so we now how to improve in future. Actions of those on opposing political sides would be a convenient and perhaps comforting significant cause, so we should be careful in prematurely concluding that.

mattzito 6y ago
My suspicion is that these events directly contributed very little overall. However, they normalized non-compliance and increased the number of people who don't wear masks as a point of resistance.
- basicneo 6y ago
  I agree it will have had some effects, both directly and indirectly. It's not clear to me how significant the effects are. Granted, we have to act on imperfect information at times.
antris 6y ago
Anti-maskers made masks political. Even people who aren't anti-mask themselves can be surrounded by a political atmosphere where wearing a mask can be construed as a political message. Also, people can get demoralized in their personal efforts when they see mask wearing as a "divisive" thing that is a matter of opinion, and when they see other people, especially public leaders not wearing masks themselves.
- in_cahoots 6y ago
  This may be true, but if you want to blame LA’s situation on anti-maskers you also need to answer the question of why LA wasn’t so bad in April or November when much of the rest of the country was spiking. And on the flip side, why is LA so much worse than ‘red states’ today? I think a more likely explanation is that the lockdown worked up through the holidays, and then people went overboard the other way. If you lived in Texas or North Carolina, you may have seen your friends and family throughout the year. So it’s easier to keep Thanksgiving small, because the public messaging has been, ‘now it’s serious’. If you live in California, you’ve been told since March that basically any activity puts you at risk of the virus. Depending on your county, this year you’ve been told to wear a mask when you’re within 30 feet of someone outdoors; that playgrounds and parks must be closed while bars can stay open; that indoor dining is banned unless you’re the governor; that there’s a 10pm curfew despite no evidence that such a curfew will slow the spread. At some point people get COVID fatigue and start to tune the messaging out. And I’m betting that point is around the holidays for many, many people.
  - sjg007 6y ago
    California is a dense place. And a lot of people live there. It was inevitable since people won’t social distance.
  - Armisael16 6y ago
    The problem with the holiday theory is that the spike started being detected around Nov 1, not thanksgiving. Cases nearly doubled in the first week of the month - and tests are always a lagging indicator.
  - antris 6y ago
    I really have no idea of the specifics between different states and timing in the USA. I live in Finland, so here's what US looks like from here since February: - leaders downplaying the virus - no top-down leadership in tackling the virus - masks made political - hundreds of thousands of people dead - media focused on wedge issues and Trumps fantastical statements while people are dying I do not live in the US and I don't for a second believe that everyone is anti-mask there, but judging from the outside looking at your numbers and media coverage, your whole attitude towards this deadly disease seems f'd up. I don't mean to direct this as an insult to the American people, more as a criticism towards the cultural and political attitudes surrounding this crisis. Anti-maskers of course are not solely to blame - nobody is - but they certainly seem to play a huge role culturally when compared to other countries.
  - IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
    You may still be right. We will know in 2 weeks
raziel2701 6y ago
Their anti-reality stance should not be tolerated. In a time of crisis we are divided over a piece of cloth. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. There's nothing redeemable about them.
- basicneo 6y ago
  They are anti-reality. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. I can see why you are scornful of them. But that doesn't make them a significant cause.
alacombe 6y ago
> How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? Probably less than BLM protesters.
- avs733 6y ago
  Logic and numbers tell us otherwise. No probably needed.
avs733 6y ago
You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. ‘Actual cause’ implies a singular input and output relationship which is both rarely accurate and the type of logic that enables things like anti mask lunacy, and vaccines, and other conspiracy theories. Overall I don’t see the problem as anti mask protests...I see anti mask protests as a symptom of the selfish stupidity that seems to impede progress.
- basicneo 6y ago
  > You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. No, I acknowledge and want to account for indirect effects. I just want to hold ourselves to empirical evidence, not just our political leanings.

mattzito 6y ago

My suspicion is that these events directly contributed very little overall. However, they normalized non-compliance and increased the number of people who don't wear masks as a point of resistance.

basicneo 6y ago
I agree it will have had some effects, both directly and indirectly. It's not clear to me how significant the effects are. Granted, we have to act on imperfect information at times.

antris 6y ago

Anti-maskers made masks political. Even people who aren't anti-mask themselves can be surrounded by a political atmosphere where wearing a mask can be construed as a political message. Also, people can get demoralized in their personal efforts when they see mask wearing as a "divisive" thing that is a matter of opinion, and when they see other people, especially public leaders not wearing masks themselves.

in_cahoots 6y ago
This may be true, but if you want to blame LA’s situation on anti-maskers you also need to answer the question of why LA wasn’t so bad in April or November when much of the rest of the country was spiking. And on the flip side, why is LA so much worse than ‘red states’ today? I think a more likely explanation is that the lockdown worked up through the holidays, and then people went overboard the other way. If you lived in Texas or North Carolina, you may have seen your friends and family throughout the year. So it’s easier to keep Thanksgiving small, because the public messaging has been, ‘now it’s serious’. If you live in California, you’ve been told since March that basically any activity puts you at risk of the virus. Depending on your county, this year you’ve been told to wear a mask when you’re within 30 feet of someone outdoors; that playgrounds and parks must be closed while bars can stay open; that indoor dining is banned unless you’re the governor; that there’s a 10pm curfew despite no evidence that such a curfew will slow the spread. At some point people get COVID fatigue and start to tune the messaging out. And I’m betting that point is around the holidays for many, many people.
- sjg007 6y ago
  California is a dense place. And a lot of people live there. It was inevitable since people won’t social distance.
- Armisael16 6y ago
  The problem with the holiday theory is that the spike started being detected around Nov 1, not thanksgiving. Cases nearly doubled in the first week of the month - and tests are always a lagging indicator.
- antris 6y ago
  I really have no idea of the specifics between different states and timing in the USA. I live in Finland, so here's what US looks like from here since February: - leaders downplaying the virus - no top-down leadership in tackling the virus - masks made political - hundreds of thousands of people dead - media focused on wedge issues and Trumps fantastical statements while people are dying I do not live in the US and I don't for a second believe that everyone is anti-mask there, but judging from the outside looking at your numbers and media coverage, your whole attitude towards this deadly disease seems f'd up. I don't mean to direct this as an insult to the American people, more as a criticism towards the cultural and political attitudes surrounding this crisis. Anti-maskers of course are not solely to blame - nobody is - but they certainly seem to play a huge role culturally when compared to other countries.
- IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
  You may still be right. We will know in 2 weeks

raziel2701 6y ago

Their anti-reality stance should not be tolerated. In a time of crisis we are divided over a piece of cloth. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. There's nothing redeemable about them.

basicneo 6y ago
They are anti-reality. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. I can see why you are scornful of them. But that doesn't make them a significant cause.

alacombe 6y ago

> How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? Probably less than BLM protesters.

avs733 6y ago
Logic and numbers tell us otherwise. No probably needed.

avs733 6y ago

You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. ‘Actual cause’ implies a singular input and output relationship which is both rarely accurate and the type of logic that enables things like anti mask lunacy, and vaccines, and other conspiracy theories. Overall I don’t see the problem as anti mask protests...I see anti mask protests as a symptom of the selfish stupidity that seems to impede progress.

basicneo 6y ago
> You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. No, I acknowledge and want to account for indirect effects. I just want to hold ourselves to empirical evidence, not just our political leanings.