4 ms·

Super tragic for sure. Seems like something was screwed up because the goal was to flatten the curve below hospital capacity, not merely delay the spike until l

Super tragic for sure. Seems like something was screwed up because the goal was to flatten the curve below hospital capacity, not merely delay the spike until later. At this point it seems like LA will probably be another Italy or NYC.

Retric 6y ago
An extra 10+ months to gain experience and increase capacity made a huge difference in the 3rd spike. If this had happened 8 months ago things would have been vastly worse nationally. Further, this is very much a flattened curve. We could have easily seen 2 or more times the current rates of infection back then.
avs733 6y ago
> Seems like something was screwed up because the goal was to flatten the curve below hospital capacity, not merely delay the spike until later. Yes, people are screwed up. You have antimask morons protesting grocery stores. [1] The goal of flattening the curve was to flatten the curve...we never really did that. We gave it a shot until everyone got bored or were deemed essential or had a pre-existing condition of being poor. [1] https://citizen.com/-MPkpO03IQfFeYb_MLWT https://citizen.com/-MPkpO03IQfFeYb_MLWT
- basicneo 6y ago
  How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? They got a lot of coverage in [social] media, but what's the marginal impact they have, given their frequency? It's important to establish the actual significant causes of issues, so we now how to improve in future. Actions of those on opposing political sides would be a convenient and perhaps comforting significant cause, so we should be careful in prematurely concluding that.
  - mattzito 6y ago
    My suspicion is that these events directly contributed very little overall. However, they normalized non-compliance and increased the number of people who don't wear masks as a point of resistance.
    - basicneo 6y ago
      I agree it will have had some effects, both directly and indirectly. It's not clear to me how significant the effects are. Granted, we have to act on imperfect information at times.
  - antris 6y ago
    Anti-maskers made masks political. Even people who aren't anti-mask themselves can be surrounded by a political atmosphere where wearing a mask can be construed as a political message. Also, people can get demoralized in their personal efforts when they see mask wearing as a "divisive" thing that is a matter of opinion, and when they see other people, especially public leaders not wearing masks themselves.
    - in_cahoots 6y ago
      This may be true, but if you want to blame LA’s situation on anti-maskers you also need to answer the question of why LA wasn’t so bad in April or November when much of the rest of the country was spiking. And on the flip side, why is LA so much worse than ‘red states’ today? I think a more likely explanation is that the lockdown worked up through the holidays, and then people went overboard the other way. If you lived in Texas or North Carolina, you may have seen your friends and family throughout the year. So it’s easier to keep Thanksgiving small, because the public messaging has been, ‘now it’s serious’. If you live in California, you’ve been told since March that basically any activity puts you at risk of the virus. Depending on your county, this year you’ve been told to wear a mask when you’re within 30 feet of someone outdoors; that playgrounds and parks must be closed while bars can stay open; that indoor dining is banned unless you’re the governor; that there’s a 10pm curfew despite no evidence that such a curfew will slow the spread. At some point people get COVID fatigue and start to tune the messaging out. And I’m betting that point is around the holidays for many, many people.
      - sjg007 6y ago
        California is a dense place. And a lot of people live there. It was inevitable since people won’t social distance.
      - Armisael16 6y ago
        The problem with the holiday theory is that the spike started being detected around Nov 1, not thanksgiving. Cases nearly doubled in the first week of the month - and tests are always a lagging indicator.
      - 6y ago
  - raziel2701 6y ago
    Their anti-reality stance should not be tolerated. In a time of crisis we are divided over a piece of cloth. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. There's nothing redeemable about them.
    - basicneo 6y ago
      They are anti-reality. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. I can see why you are scornful of them. But that doesn't make them a significant cause.
  - alacombe 6y ago
    > How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? Probably less than BLM protesters.
    - avs733 6y ago
      Logic and numbers tell us otherwise. No probably needed.
  - avs733 6y ago
    You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. ‘Actual cause’ implies a singular input and output relationship which is both rarely accurate and the type of logic that enables things like anti mask lunacy, and vaccines, and other conspiracy theories. Overall I don’t see the problem as anti mask protests...I see anti mask protests as a symptom of the selfish stupidity that seems to impede progress.
    - basicneo 6y ago
      > You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. No, I acknowledge and want to account for indirect effects. I just want to hold ourselves to empirical evidence, not just our political leanings.
sjg007 6y ago
Because people refuse to social distance.

Retric 6y ago

An extra 10+ months to gain experience and increase capacity made a huge difference in the 3rd spike. If this had happened 8 months ago things would have been vastly worse nationally. Further, this is very much a flattened curve. We could have easily seen 2 or more times the current rates of infection back then.

avs733 6y ago

> Seems like something was screwed up because the goal was to flatten the curve below hospital capacity, not merely delay the spike until later. Yes, people are screwed up. You have antimask morons protesting grocery stores. [1] The goal of flattening the curve was to flatten the curve...we never really did that. We gave it a shot until everyone got bored or were deemed essential or had a pre-existing condition of being poor. [1] https://citizen.com/-MPkpO03IQfFeYb_MLWT https://citizen.com/-MPkpO03IQfFeYb_MLWT

basicneo 6y ago
How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? They got a lot of coverage in [social] media, but what's the marginal impact they have, given their frequency? It's important to establish the actual significant causes of issues, so we now how to improve in future. Actions of those on opposing political sides would be a convenient and perhaps comforting significant cause, so we should be careful in prematurely concluding that.
- mattzito 6y ago
  My suspicion is that these events directly contributed very little overall. However, they normalized non-compliance and increased the number of people who don't wear masks as a point of resistance.
  - basicneo 6y ago
    I agree it will have had some effects, both directly and indirectly. It's not clear to me how significant the effects are. Granted, we have to act on imperfect information at times.
- antris 6y ago
  Anti-maskers made masks political. Even people who aren't anti-mask themselves can be surrounded by a political atmosphere where wearing a mask can be construed as a political message. Also, people can get demoralized in their personal efforts when they see mask wearing as a "divisive" thing that is a matter of opinion, and when they see other people, especially public leaders not wearing masks themselves.
  - in_cahoots 6y ago
    This may be true, but if you want to blame LA’s situation on anti-maskers you also need to answer the question of why LA wasn’t so bad in April or November when much of the rest of the country was spiking. And on the flip side, why is LA so much worse than ‘red states’ today? I think a more likely explanation is that the lockdown worked up through the holidays, and then people went overboard the other way. If you lived in Texas or North Carolina, you may have seen your friends and family throughout the year. So it’s easier to keep Thanksgiving small, because the public messaging has been, ‘now it’s serious’. If you live in California, you’ve been told since March that basically any activity puts you at risk of the virus. Depending on your county, this year you’ve been told to wear a mask when you’re within 30 feet of someone outdoors; that playgrounds and parks must be closed while bars can stay open; that indoor dining is banned unless you’re the governor; that there’s a 10pm curfew despite no evidence that such a curfew will slow the spread. At some point people get COVID fatigue and start to tune the messaging out. And I’m betting that point is around the holidays for many, many people.
    - sjg007 6y ago
      California is a dense place. And a lot of people live there. It was inevitable since people won’t social distance.
    - Armisael16 6y ago
      The problem with the holiday theory is that the spike started being detected around Nov 1, not thanksgiving. Cases nearly doubled in the first week of the month - and tests are always a lagging indicator.
    - 6y ago
- raziel2701 6y ago
  Their anti-reality stance should not be tolerated. In a time of crisis we are divided over a piece of cloth. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. There's nothing redeemable about them.
  - basicneo 6y ago
    They are anti-reality. They are a net negative in our efforts to contain a highly contagious virus. I can see why you are scornful of them. But that doesn't make them a significant cause.
- alacombe 6y ago
  > How much has anti-mask protesters contributed to the surge? Probably less than BLM protesters.
  - avs733 6y ago
    Logic and numbers tell us otherwise. No probably needed.
- avs733 6y ago
  You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. ‘Actual cause’ implies a singular input and output relationship which is both rarely accurate and the type of logic that enables things like anti mask lunacy, and vaccines, and other conspiracy theories. Overall I don’t see the problem as anti mask protests...I see anti mask protests as a symptom of the selfish stupidity that seems to impede progress.
  - basicneo 6y ago
    > You’re implying that the impact only matters if it is direct. No, I acknowledge and want to account for indirect effects. I just want to hold ourselves to empirical evidence, not just our political leanings.

sjg007 6y ago

Because people refuse to social distance.