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Tesla: Soaring share price creates army of 'Teslanaires'

olivermarks 6y ago
I find this illogical and scary: 'Tesla stock is now worth more than the combined valuations of General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Toyota. Yet, Tesla makes just a fraction of the cars of its more established rivals.'
- marta_weber 6y ago
  The best part is really that Tesla has only competitive disadvantages. There is really nothing in Tesla that sets them apart. Yeah, they made electric cars popular, but other car manufacturers started to catch up and they have immense advantages, like brand lock-in and a long history of adapting and evolving to customer needs. And they were right not to jump into EV too quickly. It's a pretty unpredictable, developing market. Tesla got a head start, but at the end, they really have nothing going for them. The stock is gonna crash so hard in a couple of years, I am sure someone will make a movie out of it. I might actually buy a good bunch of options against Tesla, if they reach far enough into the future.
  - juancampa 6y ago
    The value doesn't come from the fact that they make electric cars, it comes from: The fact that they have a huge fleet of cars with cameras and sensors on the road feeding their ML models is a huge advantage. Battery factories. Supercharger network. Elon's Following. Edit: added following
    - new_realist 6y ago
      AOL. Walled garden. Captive audience. Original content.
  - tashoecraft 6y ago
    While I think Tesla is over valued, I feel your statement is one many made about Apple. That they just used commodity parts to create the iPhone. That the margins will be driven too small to maintain and they’ll never live up to their valuation. Tesla has atleast a 3 year advantage, a very strong hold on battery production, extreme brand loyalty, and an iteration cycle that puts all other car companies to shame. They’ve caught an entire industry with their pants down.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - pg_bot 6y ago
    Do I think Tesla is overvalued? Yes, but I find it laughable that you think Tesla has no competitive advantages. Off the top of my head I can think of their battery production + supply chain, direct sales to consumers, world class electrical engineering, best in class safety, and over the air software updates. All of those factors would be extremely hard or impossible to duplicate at an existing car manufacturer.
  - sliken 6y ago
    Tesla IMO is just less greedy. They provide class leading safety, range, acceleration, and don't nickle and dime you. The battery packs have generous lifetimes and they have an Apple like good (rwd), better (AWD), and best (AWD performance) setup. Try to buy a Lexus, BMW, MB, etc and you get a huge laundry list of incompatible features that bundle in the options you want into expensive bundles. So much so that to get even the basic safety things like rear view cameras and decent headlights laws had to be passed and companies embarrassed with poor safety ratings because their headlights were unsafe at highway speeds and much worse than a Toyota Prius unless you bought the many $k package with the fancy headlights. Want a reliable car that's likely to last a few 100k miles, 353 mile range, is one of the safest cars on the planet to drive, has a great charging networks, great headlights, generous interior room, and low cost per mile? Get a model 3 AWD for $48k, it's a hell of a deal, and that's assuming your state, city, and country have no incentives. Sure it's one of the "slow" Tesla's at 0-60 in 4.2 seconds, but still one of the quicker accelerating cars around. I'd be hard pressed to name a #2. There's a nice Porsche, but it's like twice as much. The ford Mach e is somewhat similar, less range, less accel (at the same price), not as safe, and nowhere close on the charging network. Chevy bolt is embarrassing in comparison, doesn't handle, doesn't accelerate, not as safe, nowhere close on range, not AWD, etc.
- slimsag 6y ago
  Serious question: does the same aspect scare you with most tech startups, which have valuations well beyond the actual value they produce (often losses) at the time of their IPOs? Tesla is being valued based on its potential future, not present.
  - veggieburglar 6y ago
    Software is much easier, faster and cheaper to scale than car manufacturers.
  - xnx 6y ago
    Tech startups are valued that way because software has [approximately] zero marginal cost. If everyone in the world wants to install Tiktok tomorrow, they can. If everyone in the world wants to buy a Tesla tomorrow, it would be impossible to fulfill that demand.
    - virgilp 6y ago
      But if half of people in the world have Teslas with self driving, Tesla can also sell entertainment (they've already started, with video games!). They can also sell fancier version of self driving where you can "rent" your car (Uber-like). The hardware is a gateway to potentially more services. I still feel that Tesla is overvalued, but there exists a potential future where it still has room to grow (I'm not sure I'd like that future - so this, coupled with the stock volatility, kept me from investing in Tesla. Which, TBH, was a poor decision so far :D )
  - Udik 6y ago
    > Tesla is being valued based on its potential future This is what I don't get. Tesla's potential (but unlikely) future is that of replacing some of its competitors. And yet it's valued more than all its current competitors combined. Something just doesn't add up.
    - olivermarks 6y ago
      Exactly!
- elamje 6y ago
  In fact, Michael Burry from the Big Short has been tweeting about this lately. It's actually more valuable the all WORLDWIDE auto makers combined, and sells <1% of global volume.
  - newacct583 6y ago
    Because the bet is that in 30 years, Tesla will still be here and the legacy companies will not, having failed to pivot to the emerging markets. Yours is the same logic that has been deployed against tech industry P/E ratios for decades. No, it doesn't make "sense" per the balance sheet. But it's clear what the bet is.
    - est31 6y ago
      Some legacy companies will certainly fail the pivot, but I think it's wrong by the stock market to be so certain that they will collectively fail.
      - newacct583 6y ago
        Well, it doesn't bet that they'll "fail" exactly. It's simply betting that they aren't going to grow. The collective opinion of Wall Street is that the only value to owning Toyota or GM or Volkswagen stock is the immediate value: dividend payments, the value of liquidatable assets, etc... But with Tesla, the bet is that in 30 years that company is going to own most of the market all these existing firms do. That may be wrong, but like I said it's clear that this is the bet.
  - changoplatanero 6y ago
    I’m pretty sure that Twitter account is not run by Michael burry
    - adnzzzzZ 6y ago
      There are articles from "real institutions" saying it is him, for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-b.... It wouldn't surprise me that it is him, he seems like a contrarian in nature (if the movie did his personality any justice) and what he's been saying this year is pretty in line with that.
- prof-dr-ir 6y ago
  If that scares you then may I suggest you consult your cardiologist before you check what bitcoin has been going for recently? Excusez le mot, but I really do see these developments as two sides of the same coin.
  - kylebenzle 6y ago
    Difference is that for anyone paying attention it has been clear for years that Bitcoin was hijacked by corporate interests (Adam Back's Blockstream) years ago and intentionally crippled in order to push their own "second layer" solutions to problems they themselves created. Tesla's controlling interest at least wants Tesla to succeed, the people that hijacked the Bitcoin GitHub repo specifically want it to fail as, "Digital Peer-to-Peer Cash". Just look into nonsense like "Replace by Fee", Greg Maxwell and the company Blockstream itself. All social engineering to get Bitcoin to fail.
  - Udik 6y ago
    I agree, but then let's stop pretending that there's an underlying value which the price of Tesla shares reflect. If Tesla is like Bitcoin, then it's an asset with no intrinsic value except for its rarity. And the only reason people buy it is that they hope reselling it at a higher price. Nothing wrong with it, just let us be clear about that.
- derefr 6y ago
  Try measuring Tesla's output in Ampere-hours of EV batteries produced, vs. all those other manufacturers combined.
vuciv1 6y ago
I am scared of this stock. I would not touch it with a 10 foot pole.
- sjg007 6y ago
  So Bitcoin? More seriously, if Tesla can ramp up Model SUV tech with 400+ miles they can revamp the whole model. I would buy an electric suburban with 300+ max range with a 15 year lifespan tomorrow.
  - kylebenzle 6y ago
    Bitcoin is equally in "Ponzi" territory. When devs like Greg Maxwell and Adam Back social engineered the GitHub repo away from the original contributors they more or less killed the idea of Bitcoin as a currency and have since been pushing the idea that it is a "settlement" layer, or something like digital gold, not Digital Cash as it was intended. Without any real world use case and intentionally high fees Bitcoin, like Tesla, is pointlessly overvalued by people who could care less about the underlying technology and just hope to get rich off the hype train and sell to a greater fool. Real users and developers moved to projects like Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Monero years ago. All that are left are fan boys and marketers.
- edoceo 6y ago
  Puts then?
  - kylec 6y ago
    The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - geerlingguy 6y ago
    The problem is it goes up, it goes down, it goes sideways... but nobody has any clue why or when. Buy a put, lose money. Buy stock, lose money. Buy options, lose money. Or gain. Nobody knows; it's the definition of a speculative stock this past year. But to the amazement of all, it just seems to go up and up in the long term.
tormeh 6y ago
Honestly seems like absolute complete madness. Cars, batteries, and solar panels are all basically commodities. There is a certain value to a car brand, of course, but still. The only way this valuation makes any sort of sense is if Tesla manages to pull off 100% self-driving, as that field will have few competitors for a long time. The guy in the article should definitely sell half his shares and put them into an ACWI index fund or something. Super scary seeing these people apparently not hedging.
- bfieidhbrjr 6y ago
  The value is really in the inept cluelessness of the legacy automakers. If any of them woke up and got a Clue(TM) then, after they build a car that isn't crappy, and a charging network, and self-driving... Then TSLA stock might drop.
  - davewritescode 6y ago
    GM arguably has a better self driving solution than Tesla at the moment. At least it’s safer. Ford has the Mach-E which is getting really favorable press from the “car guy” world (i.e people who are a little more skeptical of Tesla) which supposedly is getting self driving and is $7k less with tax credit than the Model Y. https://youtu.be/c4n5iPqxpaw https://youtu.be/c4n5iPqxpaw Honestly, given Tesla’s quality issues and how they address them, I wouldn’t mind seeing what the more risk-averse, mature automakers come up with. The way Tesla has handled design flows in the Model S front suspension is downright disgraceful. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-safety-investigation/u-s-agency-opens-probe-into-115000-tesla-vehicles-over-suspension-issue-idUSKBN287172 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-safety-investigatio...
    - bfieidhbrjr 6y ago
      Mach-E looks ok but there's no way I'm driving long distance on J1772. You might convince people ChaDeMo is okay... but not if they've done a v3 supercharger. Like I said, its not just the car. You may be right about SuperCruise, I have a small amount of experience with it, but I'm skeptical. As for cars having design faults and the manufacturer being disgraceful... That's a pretty long list? We could start with the Pinto exploding? Or the Bronco roof collapsing?
dukeofdoom 6y ago
Wave of better built electric cars is coming from all the regular car manufactures. The Ford mach e is the latest one. Better made car. But ford doesn't yet have fast charge network built out.
- indemnity 6y ago
  I simply don’t understand what Tesla’s moat is once the other companies have the same range / performance. The build quality and ride comfort of my gas Audi surpass that of an equivalently priced Tesla by miles, once they have a comparable electric car, that’s what I’ll buy. The current e-tron is not it, but VAG built the super impressive Taycan, they’ll figure it out.
  - cptskippy 6y ago
    > I simply don’t understand what Tesla’s moat is... You said it yourself, no other car maker has their range, performance, and price. An Audi priced similarly to a Tesla has a better trim because EVs cost more. Audi couldn't built anything with comparable price, performance, range, and Audi interior trim quality. > VAG built the super impressive Taycan, they’ll figure it out. What's super impressive about it? I'm not saying it isn't nice but only manages to beat a Model S on track performance. In all other aspects, it's inferior.
    - namdnay 6y ago
      I think whats impressive about the Taycan is that the performance is reproducible time and time again, like an ICE car. It doesn’t overheat. So you can cane it on the Autobahn for 45mn until the battery runs out, instead of for 5mn until it overheats. I agree that there isn’t any impact to real world driving, but then again any car above 200hp isn’t really making a difference to real world driving
- cptskippy 6y ago
  > Better made car. In what regards? Teslas are mechanically sound, the paint and panel gaps seem to be the biggest complaint. > The Ford mach e is the latest one. Is the build quality different than what's in their current car and truck lines? Ford interiors have always been utter garbage IMO. There's nothing like plugging a USB cable into a USB port and then trying to unplug it and the whole interior trim panel comes off instead. And the squeaks and creaks... We could compare to Fiat Chrysler who is "Highest in Initial Quality" by JD Powers. The chrome starts to rub of the interior finishes inside 18 months. The paint oxidizes on the exterior in roughly the same time.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
aminozuur 6y ago
"Tesla stock price is too high imo" - Elon Musk Source: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184
- FartyMcFarter 6y ago
  The crazy thing is that the stock is worth 4x as much now!
  - 0xCMP 6y ago
    And he still thinks it's too high. There was an internal email basically saying "investors are trusting us" meaning that they are no where near as valuable as the stock price says unless they execute perfectly (which he goes on to say is why everyone must work harder, smarter, etc.).
FartyMcFarter 6y ago
> Many investors also believe there is strong growth to come from other parts of Tesla's business including its self-driving software Do they? How is Tesla's self-driving software going to lead to growth?
- sidibe 6y ago
  I wonder what happens if Tesla doesn't achieve full self-driving for the lifetime of current cars where the owners paid for it after all the annual "it'll be ready by the end of the year" promises
davewritescode 6y ago
Yeah, and hopefully a lot of them sell more quickly that the bitcoin folks did. Tesla’s stock priced in a way that suggests the market will never catch up. I think betting against any given car company is fair, but betting against all of them is completely foolish. I like what Tesla has done for the electric car market. They’re at least smart enough to have issued a bunch of stock at these crazy prices to keep them afloat for a while.
enjoylife 6y ago
I wonder how Tesla will incentivize the employees who joined circa 2016~2017 to stick around. As they would be fully vested with offers given before the 700% increases. They probably have base salaries in the 100k range but would have equity in the 10m. I could foresee some pretty big turnover as those employees practically retire or head into angel investing. I mean it’s not like Tesla’s Hr is going to refresh their equity anywhere near what they already have.
strulovich 6y ago
Does anyone have good numbers on the brand loyalty to Tesla? If I’m a Tesla owner, what’s the chance of me buying Tesla again? Historically Mercedes and Lexus lead with ~40%. I won’t be surprised if Tesla beats them by a margin. Alas, Tesla is a young company and I couldn’t find any reliable numbers. Extreme brand loyalty could explain why Tesla could be so big (in addition to other reason such as owning the vertical of selling insuring and energy being a possible outcome, which is not the case for traditional automakers)
JohnHammersley 6y ago
Original poster here -- is there a reason this was flagged? I thought it was interesting that Tesla stock has done so well, in what is a very different year to that which everyone expected back in Jan.
- sidibe 6y ago
  People often flag Tesla articles that have mostly negative comments.
  - JohnHammersley 6y ago
    Aha ok, fair enough. I know for next time!
    - tinco 6y ago
      Lol, no it's just off topic. What are hackers supposed to with the information in this article? How does it inspire you to start a new business, make an invention or apply technology? It's just meaningless banter over stock prices. Sure that's fun, and I partake, but it's not what HN is for.
      - IThinkImOKAY 6y ago
        From the HN Guidelines ([0]): >On-Topic: Anything that good hackers would find interesting. That includes more than hacking and startups. If you had to reduce it to a sentence, the answer might be: anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity. It certainly gratified my intellectual curiosity. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
SheinhardtWigCo 6y ago
It’s all going to end in tears in the days following wide deployment of FSD beta. Just one pedestrian death was enough to end Uber’s autonomy program and the political dynamics haven’t really changed since then.
sys_64738 6y ago
Sometimes you get lucky with a stock and this is one such scenario. Another is Apple back in the early 2000s. Not everybody will win big. I made only $278 from TSLA.

I find this illogical and scary: 'Tesla stock is now worth more than the combined valuations of General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Toyota. Yet, Tesla makes just a fraction of the cars of its more established rivals.'

marta_weber 6y ago
The best part is really that Tesla has only competitive disadvantages. There is really nothing in Tesla that sets them apart. Yeah, they made electric cars popular, but other car manufacturers started to catch up and they have immense advantages, like brand lock-in and a long history of adapting and evolving to customer needs. And they were right not to jump into EV too quickly. It's a pretty unpredictable, developing market. Tesla got a head start, but at the end, they really have nothing going for them. The stock is gonna crash so hard in a couple of years, I am sure someone will make a movie out of it. I might actually buy a good bunch of options against Tesla, if they reach far enough into the future.
- juancampa 6y ago
  The value doesn't come from the fact that they make electric cars, it comes from: The fact that they have a huge fleet of cars with cameras and sensors on the road feeding their ML models is a huge advantage. Battery factories. Supercharger network. Elon's Following. Edit: added following
  - new_realist 6y ago
    AOL. Walled garden. Captive audience. Original content.
- tashoecraft 6y ago
  While I think Tesla is over valued, I feel your statement is one many made about Apple. That they just used commodity parts to create the iPhone. That the margins will be driven too small to maintain and they’ll never live up to their valuation. Tesla has atleast a 3 year advantage, a very strong hold on battery production, extreme brand loyalty, and an iteration cycle that puts all other car companies to shame. They’ve caught an entire industry with their pants down.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- pg_bot 6y ago
  Do I think Tesla is overvalued? Yes, but I find it laughable that you think Tesla has no competitive advantages. Off the top of my head I can think of their battery production + supply chain, direct sales to consumers, world class electrical engineering, best in class safety, and over the air software updates. All of those factors would be extremely hard or impossible to duplicate at an existing car manufacturer.
- sliken 6y ago
  Tesla IMO is just less greedy. They provide class leading safety, range, acceleration, and don't nickle and dime you. The battery packs have generous lifetimes and they have an Apple like good (rwd), better (AWD), and best (AWD performance) setup. Try to buy a Lexus, BMW, MB, etc and you get a huge laundry list of incompatible features that bundle in the options you want into expensive bundles. So much so that to get even the basic safety things like rear view cameras and decent headlights laws had to be passed and companies embarrassed with poor safety ratings because their headlights were unsafe at highway speeds and much worse than a Toyota Prius unless you bought the many $k package with the fancy headlights. Want a reliable car that's likely to last a few 100k miles, 353 mile range, is one of the safest cars on the planet to drive, has a great charging networks, great headlights, generous interior room, and low cost per mile? Get a model 3 AWD for $48k, it's a hell of a deal, and that's assuming your state, city, and country have no incentives. Sure it's one of the "slow" Tesla's at 0-60 in 4.2 seconds, but still one of the quicker accelerating cars around. I'd be hard pressed to name a #2. There's a nice Porsche, but it's like twice as much. The ford Mach e is somewhat similar, less range, less accel (at the same price), not as safe, and nowhere close on the charging network. Chevy bolt is embarrassing in comparison, doesn't handle, doesn't accelerate, not as safe, nowhere close on range, not AWD, etc.
slimsag 6y ago
Serious question: does the same aspect scare you with most tech startups, which have valuations well beyond the actual value they produce (often losses) at the time of their IPOs? Tesla is being valued based on its potential future, not present.
- veggieburglar 6y ago
  Software is much easier, faster and cheaper to scale than car manufacturers.
- xnx 6y ago
  Tech startups are valued that way because software has [approximately] zero marginal cost. If everyone in the world wants to install Tiktok tomorrow, they can. If everyone in the world wants to buy a Tesla tomorrow, it would be impossible to fulfill that demand.
  - virgilp 6y ago
    But if half of people in the world have Teslas with self driving, Tesla can also sell entertainment (they've already started, with video games!). They can also sell fancier version of self driving where you can "rent" your car (Uber-like). The hardware is a gateway to potentially more services. I still feel that Tesla is overvalued, but there exists a potential future where it still has room to grow (I'm not sure I'd like that future - so this, coupled with the stock volatility, kept me from investing in Tesla. Which, TBH, was a poor decision so far :D )
- Udik 6y ago
  > Tesla is being valued based on its potential future This is what I don't get. Tesla's potential (but unlikely) future is that of replacing some of its competitors. And yet it's valued more than all its current competitors combined. Something just doesn't add up.
  - olivermarks 6y ago
    Exactly!
elamje 6y ago
In fact, Michael Burry from the Big Short has been tweeting about this lately. It's actually more valuable the all WORLDWIDE auto makers combined, and sells <1% of global volume.
- newacct583 6y ago
  Because the bet is that in 30 years, Tesla will still be here and the legacy companies will not, having failed to pivot to the emerging markets. Yours is the same logic that has been deployed against tech industry P/E ratios for decades. No, it doesn't make "sense" per the balance sheet. But it's clear what the bet is.
  - est31 6y ago
    Some legacy companies will certainly fail the pivot, but I think it's wrong by the stock market to be so certain that they will collectively fail.
    - newacct583 6y ago
      Well, it doesn't bet that they'll "fail" exactly. It's simply betting that they aren't going to grow. The collective opinion of Wall Street is that the only value to owning Toyota or GM or Volkswagen stock is the immediate value: dividend payments, the value of liquidatable assets, etc... But with Tesla, the bet is that in 30 years that company is going to own most of the market all these existing firms do. That may be wrong, but like I said it's clear that this is the bet.
- changoplatanero 6y ago
  I’m pretty sure that Twitter account is not run by Michael burry
  - adnzzzzZ 6y ago
    There are articles from "real institutions" saying it is him, for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-b.... It wouldn't surprise me that it is him, he seems like a contrarian in nature (if the movie did his personality any justice) and what he's been saying this year is pretty in line with that.
prof-dr-ir 6y ago
If that scares you then may I suggest you consult your cardiologist before you check what bitcoin has been going for recently? Excusez le mot, but I really do see these developments as two sides of the same coin.
- kylebenzle 6y ago
  Difference is that for anyone paying attention it has been clear for years that Bitcoin was hijacked by corporate interests (Adam Back's Blockstream) years ago and intentionally crippled in order to push their own "second layer" solutions to problems they themselves created. Tesla's controlling interest at least wants Tesla to succeed, the people that hijacked the Bitcoin GitHub repo specifically want it to fail as, "Digital Peer-to-Peer Cash". Just look into nonsense like "Replace by Fee", Greg Maxwell and the company Blockstream itself. All social engineering to get Bitcoin to fail.
- Udik 6y ago
  I agree, but then let's stop pretending that there's an underlying value which the price of Tesla shares reflect. If Tesla is like Bitcoin, then it's an asset with no intrinsic value except for its rarity. And the only reason people buy it is that they hope reselling it at a higher price. Nothing wrong with it, just let us be clear about that.
derefr 6y ago
Try measuring Tesla's output in Ampere-hours of EV batteries produced, vs. all those other manufacturers combined.

vuciv1 6y ago

I am scared of this stock. I would not touch it with a 10 foot pole.

sjg007 6y ago
So Bitcoin? More seriously, if Tesla can ramp up Model SUV tech with 400+ miles they can revamp the whole model. I would buy an electric suburban with 300+ max range with a 15 year lifespan tomorrow.
- kylebenzle 6y ago
  Bitcoin is equally in "Ponzi" territory. When devs like Greg Maxwell and Adam Back social engineered the GitHub repo away from the original contributors they more or less killed the idea of Bitcoin as a currency and have since been pushing the idea that it is a "settlement" layer, or something like digital gold, not Digital Cash as it was intended. Without any real world use case and intentionally high fees Bitcoin, like Tesla, is pointlessly overvalued by people who could care less about the underlying technology and just hope to get rich off the hype train and sell to a greater fool. Real users and developers moved to projects like Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Monero years ago. All that are left are fan boys and marketers.
edoceo 6y ago
Puts then?
- kylec 6y ago
  The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- geerlingguy 6y ago
  The problem is it goes up, it goes down, it goes sideways... but nobody has any clue why or when. Buy a put, lose money. Buy stock, lose money. Buy options, lose money. Or gain. Nobody knows; it's the definition of a speculative stock this past year. But to the amazement of all, it just seems to go up and up in the long term.

tormeh 6y ago

Honestly seems like absolute complete madness. Cars, batteries, and solar panels are all basically commodities. There is a certain value to a car brand, of course, but still. The only way this valuation makes any sort of sense is if Tesla manages to pull off 100% self-driving, as that field will have few competitors for a long time. The guy in the article should definitely sell half his shares and put them into an ACWI index fund or something. Super scary seeing these people apparently not hedging.

bfieidhbrjr 6y ago
The value is really in the inept cluelessness of the legacy automakers. If any of them woke up and got a Clue(TM) then, after they build a car that isn't crappy, and a charging network, and self-driving... Then TSLA stock might drop.
- davewritescode 6y ago
  GM arguably has a better self driving solution than Tesla at the moment. At least it’s safer. Ford has the Mach-E which is getting really favorable press from the “car guy” world (i.e people who are a little more skeptical of Tesla) which supposedly is getting self driving and is $7k less with tax credit than the Model Y. https://youtu.be/c4n5iPqxpaw https://youtu.be/c4n5iPqxpaw Honestly, given Tesla’s quality issues and how they address them, I wouldn’t mind seeing what the more risk-averse, mature automakers come up with. The way Tesla has handled design flows in the Model S front suspension is downright disgraceful. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-safety-investigation/u-s-agency-opens-probe-into-115000-tesla-vehicles-over-suspension-issue-idUSKBN287172 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-safety-investigatio...
  - bfieidhbrjr 6y ago
    Mach-E looks ok but there's no way I'm driving long distance on J1772. You might convince people ChaDeMo is okay... but not if they've done a v3 supercharger. Like I said, its not just the car. You may be right about SuperCruise, I have a small amount of experience with it, but I'm skeptical. As for cars having design faults and the manufacturer being disgraceful... That's a pretty long list? We could start with the Pinto exploding? Or the Bronco roof collapsing?

dukeofdoom 6y ago

Wave of better built electric cars is coming from all the regular car manufactures. The Ford mach e is the latest one. Better made car. But ford doesn't yet have fast charge network built out.

indemnity 6y ago
I simply don’t understand what Tesla’s moat is once the other companies have the same range / performance. The build quality and ride comfort of my gas Audi surpass that of an equivalently priced Tesla by miles, once they have a comparable electric car, that’s what I’ll buy. The current e-tron is not it, but VAG built the super impressive Taycan, they’ll figure it out.
- cptskippy 6y ago
  > I simply don’t understand what Tesla’s moat is... You said it yourself, no other car maker has their range, performance, and price. An Audi priced similarly to a Tesla has a better trim because EVs cost more. Audi couldn't built anything with comparable price, performance, range, and Audi interior trim quality. > VAG built the super impressive Taycan, they’ll figure it out. What's super impressive about it? I'm not saying it isn't nice but only manages to beat a Model S on track performance. In all other aspects, it's inferior.
  - namdnay 6y ago
    I think whats impressive about the Taycan is that the performance is reproducible time and time again, like an ICE car. It doesn’t overheat. So you can cane it on the Autobahn for 45mn until the battery runs out, instead of for 5mn until it overheats. I agree that there isn’t any impact to real world driving, but then again any car above 200hp isn’t really making a difference to real world driving
cptskippy 6y ago
> Better made car. In what regards? Teslas are mechanically sound, the paint and panel gaps seem to be the biggest complaint. > The Ford mach e is the latest one. Is the build quality different than what's in their current car and truck lines? Ford interiors have always been utter garbage IMO. There's nothing like plugging a USB cable into a USB port and then trying to unplug it and the whole interior trim panel comes off instead. And the squeaks and creaks... We could compare to Fiat Chrysler who is "Highest in Initial Quality" by JD Powers. The chrome starts to rub of the interior finishes inside 18 months. The paint oxidizes on the exterior in roughly the same time.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

aminozuur 6y ago

"Tesla stock price is too high imo" - Elon Musk Source: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184

FartyMcFarter 6y ago
The crazy thing is that the stock is worth 4x as much now!
- 0xCMP 6y ago
  And he still thinks it's too high. There was an internal email basically saying "investors are trusting us" meaning that they are no where near as valuable as the stock price says unless they execute perfectly (which he goes on to say is why everyone must work harder, smarter, etc.).

FartyMcFarter 6y ago

> Many investors also believe there is strong growth to come from other parts of Tesla's business including its self-driving software Do they? How is Tesla's self-driving software going to lead to growth?

sidibe 6y ago
I wonder what happens if Tesla doesn't achieve full self-driving for the lifetime of current cars where the owners paid for it after all the annual "it'll be ready by the end of the year" promises

davewritescode 6y ago

Yeah, and hopefully a lot of them sell more quickly that the bitcoin folks did. Tesla’s stock priced in a way that suggests the market will never catch up. I think betting against any given car company is fair, but betting against all of them is completely foolish. I like what Tesla has done for the electric car market. They’re at least smart enough to have issued a bunch of stock at these crazy prices to keep them afloat for a while.

enjoylife 6y ago

I wonder how Tesla will incentivize the employees who joined circa 2016~2017 to stick around. As they would be fully vested with offers given before the 700% increases. They probably have base salaries in the 100k range but would have equity in the 10m. I could foresee some pretty big turnover as those employees practically retire or head into angel investing. I mean it’s not like Tesla’s Hr is going to refresh their equity anywhere near what they already have.

strulovich 6y ago

Does anyone have good numbers on the brand loyalty to Tesla? If I’m a Tesla owner, what’s the chance of me buying Tesla again? Historically Mercedes and Lexus lead with ~40%. I won’t be surprised if Tesla beats them by a margin. Alas, Tesla is a young company and I couldn’t find any reliable numbers. Extreme brand loyalty could explain why Tesla could be so big (in addition to other reason such as owning the vertical of selling insuring and energy being a possible outcome, which is not the case for traditional automakers)

JohnHammersley 6y ago

Original poster here -- is there a reason this was flagged? I thought it was interesting that Tesla stock has done so well, in what is a very different year to that which everyone expected back in Jan.

sidibe 6y ago
People often flag Tesla articles that have mostly negative comments.
- JohnHammersley 6y ago
  Aha ok, fair enough. I know for next time!
  - tinco 6y ago
    Lol, no it's just off topic. What are hackers supposed to with the information in this article? How does it inspire you to start a new business, make an invention or apply technology? It's just meaningless banter over stock prices. Sure that's fun, and I partake, but it's not what HN is for.
    - IThinkImOKAY 6y ago
      From the HN Guidelines ([0]): >On-Topic: Anything that good hackers would find interesting. That includes more than hacking and startups. If you had to reduce it to a sentence, the answer might be: anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity. It certainly gratified my intellectual curiosity. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

SheinhardtWigCo 6y ago

It’s all going to end in tears in the days following wide deployment of FSD beta. Just one pedestrian death was enough to end Uber’s autonomy program and the political dynamics haven’t really changed since then.

sys_64738 6y ago

Sometimes you get lucky with a stock and this is one such scenario. Another is Apple back in the early 2000s. Not everybody will win big. I made only $278 from TSLA.