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Are you suggesting that COVID tests were widely submitted with kiwi fruit rather than saliva?
by jawarner 6y ago
Are you suggesting that COVID tests were widely submitted with kiwi fruit rather than saliva?
- hnuser847 6y agoHe's suggesting that the PCR tests are too sensitive to produce meaningful information. Here's an article that explains how a false-positive rate of 0.5% and an infection rate of 1% can result in 40% of positive results being wrong: https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19 https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-fo...
- doubleunplussed 6y agoVictoria, Australia has done maybe 5-15k tests per day and had zero cases in I think 61 days now. They do get false positives, about one in ten or twenty thousand it seems, but most of them had the virus at some point in the past and the test was still detecting dead virus fragments, so the "completely false" positive rate is even lower. The false positives are re- tested, and it's almost always concluded that they're false. Hence 61 days with no cases - any false positives in that time have been identified as such, so the process taken as a whole has a very low false positive rate indeed. But even the raw "one in 10k" false positive rate they see is low enough that almost all positive tests anywhere with an active COVID outbreak are true positives.
- andred14 6y agococa-cola also has covid19: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/292952 https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/292952
- codemac 6y agoIt could, but it's not showing up in the correlated data that way. If our rate of tests produced the rate of false positives you claim are possible, what is the reason for the excess deaths across the globe? That occurred simultaneously, and in a delayed rate right along with positive test rates?
- andred14 6y agoIndeed. We can see here that deaths in Sweden, where "safety" was very relaxed, are around the same or less than previous years ie. there is no new emergency: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-...
- brasetvik 6y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy#False_positive_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy#False_positi...