I agree Tesla's shipped software that doesn't inspire confidence in the current version. I only use it on highways and remain fully engaged. (If I had to guess,

I agree Tesla's shipped software that doesn't inspire confidence in the current version. I only use it on highways and remain fully engaged. (If I had to guess, in that scenario it does provide a marginal improvement in safety over fully manual driving.) However I don't think lack of confidence in the current software, particularly the production autopilot software, is really giving me much signal in helping predict if Tesla will have FSD anytime soon or not. Now that FSD (at least in Phoenix conditions) is known to be possible the prior that it will never be achieved by Tesla to me is near zero, beyond the chance that LIDAR is strictly necessary and they have a doomed hardware stack. I think there is a pretty big range of possible timelines though - I could see it happening in as soon as 18 months or as late as 10 years depending on how poorly things sift out with their hardware stack.