Obesity is strongly correlated with chronic healthcare issues (stroke, coronary artery disease, cardiac issues, diabetes, cancer, etc) and poor health outcomes

Obesity is strongly correlated with chronic healthcare issues (stroke, coronary artery disease, cardiac issues, diabetes, cancer, etc) and poor health outcomes overall. This has partially been directly linked back to signaling from adipose tissue. Being fat is unhealthy; this has been known for awhile; full stop. We can absolutely expect an aging, obese population to contribute to increased healthcare costs. Additionally, while end of life care for the elderly is one significant contributor to health care costs, managing patients with multiple chronic healthcare conditions actually is the single largest cause of healthcare spend. If we want to be blunt, your assumptions are wrong: Fat people typically don't die suddenly while young, they die slowly after battling chronic disease, and they rack up costs while doing so.