6 ms·

In 10 years, the biggest markets will likely be: 1. Mobile (I include cars, IoT etc) 2. Server/cloud (most new servers will be deployed to AWS, MS, Google, an

In 10 years, the biggest markets will likely be: 1. Mobile (I include cars, IoT etc) 2. Server/cloud (most new servers will be deployed to AWS, MS, Google, and maybe Alibaba) 3. Graphics / ML (you mentioned Nvidia and CUDA) How would your suggested option 4 help Intel gain a significant foothold in any of those markets? (or stop the Arm transition in the case of #2)

ethbr0 6y ago
Crazy idea: Why doesn't Intel launch their own cloud IaaS offering? Value proposition: Intel needs to scale manufacturing and R&D, in a way that doesn't leave them in a performance bind (ie without performance, they can't sell at scale, and thus can't afford to buy performance). Abstracting compute behind an IaaS offering would let them do exactly that while providing an alternate sink for binned chips. Furthermore, they've got decent HW/SW integration talent in-house, and they could offer a key feature other clouds couldn't: vendor agnosticism. Building {PaaS product} on an Intel cloud seems strategically smarter than building on one of the continually-vertically-integrating clouds.
- wmf 6y ago
  I think an IaaS-only cloud is a losing proposition. Customers want a variety of services at different levels on the same account. There may be room for innovation in federation/reselling higher-layer services but I'm not sure. Also, Intel-only would be limited compared to other clouds offering Intel/AMD/ARM. It's more likely that Intel will increase market development funding to the existing cloud providers as their market share declines.
- mcintyre1994 6y ago
  Is x86 likely to stay as the dominant cloud architecture though? My understanding of ARM on AWS is that if your stuff supports it then it’s better performance per dollar and basically a no brainer. I don’t see why x86 would continue to be the dominant deployment target long term, especially with Apple moving their line to ARM meaning that developers will increasingly demand compatibility with it across the stack.
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    You're ultimately buying ops-per-dollar. It seems like Intel could create a pretty compelling offering. Especially since AWS, Azure, and GCP all seem to be giving them the strategic middle finger.
- discodave 6y ago
  I like that idea, just for how crazy it is! My bear case for Intel Web Services would be: 1. As IBM, HP and others discovered, the expertise required to run cloud services is very different from what's required to sell servers (or CPUs). 2. To compete with Amazon and MS, you would need to spend several tens of billions of dollars just to get a similar infrastructure footprint. A variation on your proposal would be for Intel to buy a bunch of smaller cloud players, like DigitalOcean, and CloudFlare. Intel has the huge amounts of cash that these companies need to compete with AWS and Azure, Intel would then be vertically integrated, just like AWS is, and they would get the customer base and expertise from those acquisitions.
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    I think Intel's core offering would be value-add neutrality, which is attractive compared to building on (and competing with) first party AWS/GCP. DigitalOcean, CloudFlare, etc would definitely have to be involved... but it's a tricky balancing act to avoid their becoming dominant solutions, at which point you would have AWS, except as a combination of companies. Not sure how to square that circle. Maybe an extension of the Open Compute group + FRAND licensing of Apache-style preferred value add solutions on top, with Intel operating the hardware as a certified implementation? Essentially enabling MVNOs for cloud. Intel's key distinction from foundry-less competitors, is that they can scale capacity to whatever they want, at least on older nodes. And the more volume they scale to, the more they ammortize their own costs (ie fab version of Amazon's AWS rationale). The key would be establishing an ecosystem where innovation at the higher levels, and FRAND licensing of same, financially rewarded and incentivized players to invest in the platform.

ethbr0 6y ago

Crazy idea: Why doesn't Intel launch their own cloud IaaS offering? Value proposition: Intel needs to scale manufacturing and R&D, in a way that doesn't leave them in a performance bind (ie without performance, they can't sell at scale, and thus can't afford to buy performance). Abstracting compute behind an IaaS offering would let them do exactly that while providing an alternate sink for binned chips. Furthermore, they've got decent HW/SW integration talent in-house, and they could offer a key feature other clouds couldn't: vendor agnosticism. Building {PaaS product} on an Intel cloud seems strategically smarter than building on one of the continually-vertically-integrating clouds.

wmf 6y ago
I think an IaaS-only cloud is a losing proposition. Customers want a variety of services at different levels on the same account. There may be room for innovation in federation/reselling higher-layer services but I'm not sure. Also, Intel-only would be limited compared to other clouds offering Intel/AMD/ARM. It's more likely that Intel will increase market development funding to the existing cloud providers as their market share declines.
mcintyre1994 6y ago
Is x86 likely to stay as the dominant cloud architecture though? My understanding of ARM on AWS is that if your stuff supports it then it’s better performance per dollar and basically a no brainer. I don’t see why x86 would continue to be the dominant deployment target long term, especially with Apple moving their line to ARM meaning that developers will increasingly demand compatibility with it across the stack.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  You're ultimately buying ops-per-dollar. It seems like Intel could create a pretty compelling offering. Especially since AWS, Azure, and GCP all seem to be giving them the strategic middle finger.
discodave 6y ago
I like that idea, just for how crazy it is! My bear case for Intel Web Services would be: 1. As IBM, HP and others discovered, the expertise required to run cloud services is very different from what's required to sell servers (or CPUs). 2. To compete with Amazon and MS, you would need to spend several tens of billions of dollars just to get a similar infrastructure footprint. A variation on your proposal would be for Intel to buy a bunch of smaller cloud players, like DigitalOcean, and CloudFlare. Intel has the huge amounts of cash that these companies need to compete with AWS and Azure, Intel would then be vertically integrated, just like AWS is, and they would get the customer base and expertise from those acquisitions.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  I think Intel's core offering would be value-add neutrality, which is attractive compared to building on (and competing with) first party AWS/GCP. DigitalOcean, CloudFlare, etc would definitely have to be involved... but it's a tricky balancing act to avoid their becoming dominant solutions, at which point you would have AWS, except as a combination of companies. Not sure how to square that circle. Maybe an extension of the Open Compute group + FRAND licensing of Apache-style preferred value add solutions on top, with Intel operating the hardware as a certified implementation? Essentially enabling MVNOs for cloud. Intel's key distinction from foundry-less competitors, is that they can scale capacity to whatever they want, at least on older nodes. And the more volume they scale to, the more they ammortize their own costs (ie fab version of Amazon's AWS rationale). The key would be establishing an ecosystem where innovation at the higher levels, and FRAND licensing of same, financially rewarded and incentivized players to invest in the platform.