4 ms·
In an average year there are about 350,000 deaths in the UK. This year we've had 415,000 - 18% more deaths. The promises from the covid-skeptics were that covi
by iso1210 6y ago
In an average year there are about 350,000 deaths in the UK. This year we've had 415,000 - 18% more deaths.
The promises from the covid-skeptics were that covid "just killed off people a few months earlier". That hasn't borne out -- in the North West where we suffered from a second wave in October, which led to 40% increase on expected deaths each week for the entire of November (people catching in October) and hospitals reached the peaks they were at in April. The partial tiered restrictions stopped the growth, but it took the full blown lockdown to bring those deaths down to "just" 10% above normal.
The figures for this latest wave, starting from the South East, are far more concerning than the mini wave we had in the north in October - not just cases, but hospitilations too.
Now I'm under 45, I don't have much to worry about from actually contracting covid and dying (about 1 in 4,000, normal risk of death is about 1 in 1,000)
The potential longer term effects are a little more concerning, but what worries the hell out of me is hospital overload.
In the last year there have been 260,000 people going into hospital with a positive covid test. Now not all people who died while having covid died because of covid, but the number with covid on the death certificate is actually higher than the excess deaths.
Even if I don't care at all about the over 50s, given the number of people who have had covid and the percentage going into hospital, if it ran rampant throughout the UK over the next 3 months, we'd be looking at another 600,000 excess deaths and 2 million+ extra hospitalisations, in for an average 10 days.
There are about 100,000 hospital beds in total in the UK, and staffing to just about meet that number.
What will we do with the millions who won't be able to get a bed (including under 45s who get run over?). Should the law be changed so that anyone over the age of 60 forfeits their right to hospital care?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- xkbarkar 6y agoWhere are you getting these numbers? "There were 616,014 deaths registered in the UK in 2018, an increase of 1.5% from 607,172 in 2017." https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/vitalstatisticspopulationandhealthreferencetables https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati...
- iso1210 6y agoSorry yes, those were expected deaths since March, not per year. Excess deaths from https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surve... So 18% up in the last 9 months. Lockdown 2 dropped that to 10%/week, but that was before the effect of the December spike and the large numbers going into hospital has been truely seen.