9 ms·

Do you account for people who died from psychological effects of lockdown and job loss, and from not requesting medical assistance for other conditions because

Do you account for people who died from psychological effects of lockdown and job loss, and from not requesting medical assistance for other conditions because of fear of covid-19?

cygx 6y ago
Look at the time evolution of excess deaths in countries such as Belgium that were hit hard by the virus: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=~BEL&region=World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... There's a clear signal we can attribute to Covid infections, whereas any such second order effects are not readily apparent.
- davrosthedalek 6y ago
  To be fair, many lock-down/fear-of-going-to-the-doctor related things have a much longer fuse. A cancer missed now might kill you in a year or two.
thebruce87m 6y ago
Countries like Norway show no significant excess mortality for the year despite lockdowns. Suicides also seem unaffected in the UK: https://twitter.com/samaritans/status/1326184288958746625?s=21 https://twitter.com/samaritans/status/1326184288958746625?s=... Happy to see evidence otherwise.
- xkbarkar 6y ago
  Did you read the report you linked to ? - The post-lockdown figures were higher than in the equivalent period in 2019 - The higher figures in 2020 should be seen in the context of a rising national rate and maturing real-time surveillance systems; They say , Yes there were more suicides in 2020 than 2019 but that is because suicide rates were rising anyway. and we now monitor them better than we have before. AND the also state (3)There are several important caveats. These are early figures and could change over time or with the inclusion of more areas. We cannot rule out higher rates in some local areas or population sub-groups, especially as the effect of COVID-19 itself has varied between communities; http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861 http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861 So not unaffected by any means but lockdown impact is still not determined.
  - thebruce87m 6y ago
    Yes? I think you covered the main points which don’t seem to disagree with what I was saying although from your response it seems like you think they do? The caveat about the sample size and area is valid, but it did cover 9 million people which is a significant proportion of the population.
    - xkbarkar 6y ago
      You claimed that suicide rates are unaffected. They are not. They have increased. We don't know why they have increased, we don't even know if the current numbers are accurate. It may very well be due to lockdown. Suicide rates may well be higher than has currently been reported. This report acknowledges that. You however did not. You pretty much trivialized the severity of the truth behind these horrible numbers. I think you never read the report and just copied the twitter statement, and are now irritated because you got called on it. For arguments sake If I state that medical doctors have the highest suicide rates among all the professions (which is true). Would you still trivialize the 2020 increase in suicide rates if I could show you that more oncologists took their own lives in 2020 than in 2019? What if I could show you that the increase comes from unemployed, physically healthy men under the age of 35? What if there is a steep increase in suicides among the elderly who have sheltered in place since march ? Context is everything. This report acknowledges that proper context is still missing, and it's preliminary to draw conclusions other than that it looks like the increase was to be expected. Which in itself is (pardon my french) fucking abysmal and should not go ignored.
      - thebruce87m 6y ago
        That was... wild. You definitely seem to want to come to the opposite conclusion of what the report is suggesting and I don’t think I’ll change your mind here. I stick by my original interpretation of the report in line with your highlighted points, which is also in line with how the Samaritans (!!!) interpreted the report.
triceratops 6y ago
If we're doing second-order effects, did you account for the lives saved by less driving around due to lockdowns? The lives saved by less air pollution? The lives saved by ensuring the healthcare systems weren't overloaded?

Do you account for people who died from psychological effects of lockdown and job loss, and from not requesting medical assistance for other conditions because of fear of covid-19?

cygx 6y ago

Look at the time evolution of excess deaths in countries such as Belgium that were hit hard by the virus: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=~BEL&region=World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... There's a clear signal we can attribute to Covid infections, whereas any such second order effects are not readily apparent.

davrosthedalek 6y ago
To be fair, many lock-down/fear-of-going-to-the-doctor related things have a much longer fuse. A cancer missed now might kill you in a year or two.

thebruce87m 6y ago

Countries like Norway show no significant excess mortality for the year despite lockdowns. Suicides also seem unaffected in the UK: https://twitter.com/samaritans/status/1326184288958746625?s=21 https://twitter.com/samaritans/status/1326184288958746625?s=... Happy to see evidence otherwise.

xkbarkar 6y ago
Did you read the report you linked to ? - The post-lockdown figures were higher than in the equivalent period in 2019 - The higher figures in 2020 should be seen in the context of a rising national rate and maturing real-time surveillance systems; They say , Yes there were more suicides in 2020 than 2019 but that is because suicide rates were rising anyway. and we now monitor them better than we have before. AND the also state (3)There are several important caveats. These are early figures and could change over time or with the inclusion of more areas. We cannot rule out higher rates in some local areas or population sub-groups, especially as the effect of COVID-19 itself has varied between communities; http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861 http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861 So not unaffected by any means but lockdown impact is still not determined.
- thebruce87m 6y ago
  Yes? I think you covered the main points which don’t seem to disagree with what I was saying although from your response it seems like you think they do? The caveat about the sample size and area is valid, but it did cover 9 million people which is a significant proportion of the population.
  - xkbarkar 6y ago
    You claimed that suicide rates are unaffected. They are not. They have increased. We don't know why they have increased, we don't even know if the current numbers are accurate. It may very well be due to lockdown. Suicide rates may well be higher than has currently been reported. This report acknowledges that. You however did not. You pretty much trivialized the severity of the truth behind these horrible numbers. I think you never read the report and just copied the twitter statement, and are now irritated because you got called on it. For arguments sake If I state that medical doctors have the highest suicide rates among all the professions (which is true). Would you still trivialize the 2020 increase in suicide rates if I could show you that more oncologists took their own lives in 2020 than in 2019? What if I could show you that the increase comes from unemployed, physically healthy men under the age of 35? What if there is a steep increase in suicides among the elderly who have sheltered in place since march ? Context is everything. This report acknowledges that proper context is still missing, and it's preliminary to draw conclusions other than that it looks like the increase was to be expected. Which in itself is (pardon my french) fucking abysmal and should not go ignored.
    - thebruce87m 6y ago
      That was... wild. You definitely seem to want to come to the opposite conclusion of what the report is suggesting and I don’t think I’ll change your mind here. I stick by my original interpretation of the report in line with your highlighted points, which is also in line with how the Samaritans (!!!) interpreted the report.

triceratops 6y ago

If we're doing second-order effects, did you account for the lives saved by less driving around due to lockdowns? The lives saved by less air pollution? The lives saved by ensuring the healthcare systems weren't overloaded?