5 ms·

Wish I could find estimates showing “At current / projected vaccination rates it will take X years to vaccinate 90% of the population”, per country. I heard on

by jpster 6y ago

Wish I could find estimates showing “At current / projected vaccination rates it will take X years to vaccinate 90% of the population”, per country. I heard on TWiV (This Week in Virology podcast) for the US it was ~6.6 years and I believe it was based on < 90% of pop.

rsynnott 6y ago
_Current_ rates are likely not worth worrying about, not this early on. Rates should be expected to increase fairly dramatically in the next weeks.
- jpster 6y ago
  I hope so. But, frankly, most national and local responses to this outbreak have been subpar. I do not take it for granted that we (the US) can pull off this major logistical challenge smoothly or on an aggressive timeline.
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    New vaccines will likely be approved over the next few weeks (particularly the Oxford one), greatly increasing supply, and the kinks around distribution and administration will be slowly worked out (the Oxford one will also reduce the logistical challenges there; no special transport or storage needed). I'd be very surprised if rates don't go up considerably within a month.
    - bb123 6y ago
      Is that likely to get approved in the US? My understanding is that the trial was not good enough to pass the FDA bar.
      - rsynnott 6y ago
        Ah, looks like they may hold off til Feb. for US approval. (Results expected from another trial by then)
  - jpster 6y ago
    Here’s why I worry: https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1343768397084053505?s=21 https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1343768397084053505?s=...