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> there is nothing different this day and age except awareness And the fact that crime has dropped like a rock, with a ~20 year lag, after leaded fuel was phas

> there is nothing different this day and age except awareness And the fact that crime has dropped like a rock, with a ~20 year lag, after leaded fuel was phased out.

lostlogin 6y ago
If someone hasn’t seen the Drum article, here it is. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
- HeWhoLurksLate 6y ago
  Thanks, hadn't read that before, and now I know more than I did. That's a kinda heavy article to read esp. considering what we might be doing that'll have unknown effects in 20 years
nearbuy 6y ago
This New Zealand study [1] attempted to look at the crime-lead relation in a place where it wasn't confounded by childhood socioeconomic status, and "failed to support a dose-response association between BLL (blood lead level) and consequential criminal offending". I'm not trying to say the theory is wrong; just that correlations are really tricky to study, it's hard to control for all confounding variables, and it's hard to know for certain when a correlation is due to causation. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2666777 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/...
- mleonhard 6y ago
  > Blood lead level measured at age 11 years. The harm by lead occurs in the first 3 years of life. High blood lead in early childhood is not detected later in childhood [0]. The New Zealand study uses blood tests performed ten years too late. This flaw makes the study almost useless. Additionally, only 30 of the children in the study had low blood lead, <5 ug/dL. This is because the blood was collected in the 1980s and New Zealand only banned leaded gasoline in 1996. Look at Figure 1 in [1], and notice that at 5ug/dL, the damage is already done. [0] Caito, S., & Aschner, M. (2017). Developmental Neurotoxicity of Lead. Neurotoxicity of Metals, 3–12. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-60189-2_1 [1] Nevin, R. (2000). How Lead Exposure Relates to Temporal Changes in IQ, Violent Crime, and Unwed Pregnancy. Environmental Research, 83(1), 1–22. doi:10.1006/enrs.1999.4045
  - nearbuy 6y ago
    That does sound like a flaw, although the paper by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes I often see mentioned that argues lead causes crimes isn't based on measuring lead levels in individuals at all, but on the total lead released by cars during the time studied. That sounds even less robust. I'm not sure if the paper you linked measures the correlation between blood lead levels in the first 3 years and crime rates because it's behind a paywall.
    - mleonhard 6y ago
      You can get the paper in 30 seconds on sci-hub.
      - nearbuy 6y ago
        I wasn't aware of sci-hub, but it seems awesome. Thanks! The paper you linked by Nevin seems to be doing the same thing as the paper by Reyes. They didn't test the lead levels in individuals studied, but looked at the total lead released by vehicles at the time.

> there is nothing different this day and age except awareness And the fact that crime has dropped like a rock, with a ~20 year lag, after leaded fuel was phased out.

lostlogin 6y ago

If someone hasn’t seen the Drum article, here it is. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

HeWhoLurksLate 6y ago
Thanks, hadn't read that before, and now I know more than I did. That's a kinda heavy article to read esp. considering what we might be doing that'll have unknown effects in 20 years

nearbuy 6y ago

This New Zealand study [1] attempted to look at the crime-lead relation in a place where it wasn't confounded by childhood socioeconomic status, and "failed to support a dose-response association between BLL (blood lead level) and consequential criminal offending". I'm not trying to say the theory is wrong; just that correlations are really tricky to study, it's hard to control for all confounding variables, and it's hard to know for certain when a correlation is due to causation. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2666777 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/...

mleonhard 6y ago
> Blood lead level measured at age 11 years. The harm by lead occurs in the first 3 years of life. High blood lead in early childhood is not detected later in childhood [0]. The New Zealand study uses blood tests performed ten years too late. This flaw makes the study almost useless. Additionally, only 30 of the children in the study had low blood lead, <5 ug/dL. This is because the blood was collected in the 1980s and New Zealand only banned leaded gasoline in 1996. Look at Figure 1 in [1], and notice that at 5ug/dL, the damage is already done. [0] Caito, S., & Aschner, M. (2017). Developmental Neurotoxicity of Lead. Neurotoxicity of Metals, 3–12. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-60189-2_1 [1] Nevin, R. (2000). How Lead Exposure Relates to Temporal Changes in IQ, Violent Crime, and Unwed Pregnancy. Environmental Research, 83(1), 1–22. doi:10.1006/enrs.1999.4045
- nearbuy 6y ago
  That does sound like a flaw, although the paper by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes I often see mentioned that argues lead causes crimes isn't based on measuring lead levels in individuals at all, but on the total lead released by cars during the time studied. That sounds even less robust. I'm not sure if the paper you linked measures the correlation between blood lead levels in the first 3 years and crime rates because it's behind a paywall.
  - mleonhard 6y ago
    You can get the paper in 30 seconds on sci-hub.
    - nearbuy 6y ago
      I wasn't aware of sci-hub, but it seems awesome. Thanks! The paper you linked by Nevin seems to be doing the same thing as the paper by Reyes. They didn't test the lead levels in individuals studied, but looked at the total lead released by vehicles at the time.