5 ms·
I'm struggling to see what this new measure is actually telling us that's useful. We know bond yeilds are super low, whcih is putting pressure on people to move
by Traster 6y ago
I'm struggling to see what this new measure is actually telling us that's useful. We know bond yeilds are super low, whcih is putting pressure on people to move into more risky investments like the S&P. This measure seems to simply show that pressure. What it says nothing about is whether those investments are good. What it seems to show is that there's enormous pressure on the stock market to go up. At some point though, those companies have to actually make money. We know they're not going to be making hugely higher earnings - we're a long way into a good economy, there's no real reason to think everything is going to get massively better. The only alternative is that inflation sky rockets and that's how earnings go up.
So what happens if inflation goes up? Well for inflation to have any meaningful effect it would have to blast past the fed's targets and the fed would need to massively increase bond yields. Which would remove the pressure on stocks, causing stock prices to drop.
What I'm not so sure about is what happens if inflation really does stay flat. If inflation stays flat, then everyone is just holding a load of stock with really bad yeild. Does that also cause a crash when people realise they're holding bad investments and those bonds don't look so bad because there isn't inflation?