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Back in the 20th century, I might have said the same thing when I was enamored with Larry Niven’s hard sci-fi. Nowadays, I find it hard to entertain the possibi

Back in the 20th century, I might have said the same thing when I was enamored with Larry Niven’s hard sci-fi. Nowadays, I find it hard to entertain the possibility of civilizations much more advanced than our own: the persistently dismal news and noticeable slowdown in materials-science technological innovation since the turn of the millennium, makes me suspect that races inevitably hit the Great Filter around the point where we are now. After all, hasn’t it been noted that science-fiction is no longer as optimistic about technological progress as it used to be?

m4rtink 6y ago
I think it's not that bad scientific progress wise if you know where to look - just a couple days ago I learned about an apparent revolution going on with camera optics via metamaterials for example. Back at university less then a decade ago I attended a talk by one of the leading metamaterial experts back then and the field of study was promissing nice benefits but was far from ready & it was not clear optical metematerials are even possible. Now major camera manufacturers are apparently close to shipping metamaterial camera lenses with before unseen performance at low cost. And that's just one of the examples - we might not be doubling airplane performance records every year as we did in the 1950s but a lot of (progressively harder) cool tech is being introduced every day (5 nm chips, HBM RAM, practical non volatile RAM from Intel, TsV technology making much more stacked chips possible & actual 3D designs in the future, massive expansion of 3D printing everywhere, quick to produce RNA vaccines, ubiqutous joint and even organ replacements, etc.). Not to mention all the IT systems now deployed making all these advances easily accessible to basically anyone on Earth. Also in some cases we hit the "road not taken" territory - with SpaceX Starship for example the Raptor engines are indeed novel and very huge achievement (and the best liquid rocket engine in existence effectively) but the fact that some types of stainless steel being stronger at cryogenic temperatures being was known before yet no one really realized how good match it is for reusable rocket manufacturing.

m4rtink 6y ago

I think it's not that bad scientific progress wise if you know where to look - just a couple days ago I learned about an apparent revolution going on with camera optics via metamaterials for example. Back at university less then a decade ago I attended a talk by one of the leading metamaterial experts back then and the field of study was promissing nice benefits but was far from ready & it was not clear optical metematerials are even possible. Now major camera manufacturers are apparently close to shipping metamaterial camera lenses with before unseen performance at low cost. And that's just one of the examples - we might not be doubling airplane performance records every year as we did in the 1950s but a lot of (progressively harder) cool tech is being introduced every day (5 nm chips, HBM RAM, practical non volatile RAM from Intel, TsV technology making much more stacked chips possible & actual 3D designs in the future, massive expansion of 3D printing everywhere, quick to produce RNA vaccines, ubiqutous joint and even organ replacements, etc.). Not to mention all the IT systems now deployed making all these advances easily accessible to basically anyone on Earth. Also in some cases we hit the "road not taken" territory - with SpaceX Starship for example the Raptor engines are indeed novel and very huge achievement (and the best liquid rocket engine in existence effectively) but the fact that some types of stainless steel being stronger at cryogenic temperatures being was known before yet no one really realized how good match it is for reusable rocket manufacturing.