3 ms·
> Net population growth has not certainly peaked. Net population growth peaked 30 years ago, see [0]. The rest is "technically true" if you argue solely based
by _Microft 6y ago
> Net population growth has not certainly peaked.
Net population growth peaked 30 years ago, see [0].
The rest is "technically true" if you argue solely based on an exponential model. That's not how it works. There is more to modelling population growth (or a pandemic for that matter) than just fitting an exponential.
People had lots of children in the past because almost half of them died young and the parents needed children to care for them when they were old. So they defaulted to "more children". Then child mortality was brought down and people adapted with delay - which lead to more people growing up and increasing the population. Then people adapted and the fertility rate fell a lot and in some cases even very fast. Compare how fast Iran an South Korea transitioned and see how long it took the United Kingdom to do so before [1].
The articles on "Our World in Data" are really interesting and the people behind it make lots of effort to ensure good quality of the data. I can really recommend to checkout the website.
[0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-population https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-...
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?tab=chart&country=GBR~IRN~KOR®ion=World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?t...