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Covid-19 Vaccinations in the United States
- throwaway189262 6y agoWow. That's initial doses for 1/30 people already, a few weeks after approval. And there's still more vaccines yet to be approved and distributed. If the Defence Production Act really ends up being used we could see the US hit herd immunity in 3 months. Since we're distributing to old and vulnerable first, I speculate we'll see fataility rate plunge in as little as 3 weeks. Maybe enough to take the whole US out of lockdown
- goseeastarwar 6y agoIt'll be closer to 6-8 weeks since these early vaccines require two doses.
- throwaway189262 6y agoSubstantial resistance is built up after 8 days from the stuff I've read. Yeah immunity level is not great, but look at mortality in the studies. AFAIK nobody that got even a single dose ended up in the hospital. That's huge if true. That means hospitizations will plummet well before everyone is through their second dose.
- double0jimb0 6y agoIt’s 12 days https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
- davycro 6y agoDo you have a citation for this claim? I heard or read similar but then couldn’t find the source.
- throwaway189262 6y agoI dug deep for this lol... It looks like somebody ballparked it from a graph, I read it in a news story I can't find. It looks like COVID incidence among study participants comes to a screeching halt somewhere around 8-12 days after first dose Page 30 of https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download See this graph > Cumulative Incidence Curves for the First COVID-19 Occurrence After Dose 1, Dose 1 All-Available Efficacy Population Also keep in mind this graph is probably based on COVID diagnosis date. Since it's unrealistic to test positive the day you contract COVID, I think it's reasonable to say it might even be effective from day 3-5 on
- davycro 6y agoAmazing! Thank you for digging! This is the most common question that I am asked at work.
- bawolff 6y agoThey allegedly have partial immunity after the first dose (how partial i have no idea, and it might fade really quickly if you don't get the second), but its possible its enough to have some effect if enough of the right populations have the first dose.
- almost_usual 6y agoI wish I was this optimistic.
- yokaze 6y agoThe production of those doses started long time before the approval. I've heard that we can count ourselves lucky, if we reach sufficient vaccination rate before winter. One thing to keep in mind, obesity is a risk factor.
- mrslave 6y agoYou should really put your normal account against interesting - and rather bold - predictions like this. Other than getting it wrong, I can't imagine what reason you might have to throwaway on this subject? HN is a largely good faith audience.
- throwaway1777 6y agoThe risk of getting cancelled is too high, so it’s best to always use a throwaway.
- TaylorAlexander 6y agoSorry, but you piqued my interest. What does “getting canceled” mean here? You made some projections which may or may not be correct... but do you think people would remember who you are and hold it against you in the future if you made that comment with your main account? I apologize if that isn’t what you meant, I’m just trying to understand your thinking.
- TeMPOraL 6y agoI'm guessing they mean in general. HN crowd doesn't cancel people, but HN is also a public board with a somewhat peculiar fan following on Twitter...
- altano 6y agoWhat's an example of a person being "canceled" by leaving a good faith Hacker News comment?
- throwaway201103 6y agoCanceling can be something that hasn't happened yet. All that we write online is forever.
- throwaway189262 6y ago
- dehrmann 6y ago> If the Defence Production Act really ends up being used we could see the US hit herd immunity in 3 months. We've had so much time to ramp up production that using the defense production act would just confuse things. We were actually producing vaccines before they were approved in order to rush this out.
- throwaway189262 6y agoVaccines are traditionally not very profitable. Companies don't have an incentive to ramp up production ASAP because they know as soon as everybody is vaccinated demand will tank. There's plenty more profitable things to spend their time and resources on. However, for everyone besides the drug companies it's advantageous to manufacture doses as quickly as possible. It's the same reason DPA is used in wars. It would be vastly more profitable to produce scarce luxury items but not in the best interest of society. The interests of drug companies and society are not completely aligned here and DPA would force them to apply all their resources to the problem, rather than maximum profitability.
- dehrmann 6y ago> Since we're distributing to old and vulnerable first, I speculate we'll see fataility rate plunge in as little as 3 weeks. As others have said, there's more lag than you think, so it'll be more like 6-9 weeks, especially with a Christmas surge. The other thing to remember is that we have a poor understanding of how it spreads. I don't mean that it's airborne, but that there isn't much evidence to suggest vaccinating the elderly and first responders is the best way to stop the spread. It's not an unreasonable choice, but there's a lot we failed to understand going into the winter.
- jsinai 6y agoI’ve always thought that vaccinating elderly and first responders was less about stopping spread and more about reducing fatalities among the most vulnerable. After all it is the least vulnerable who are most likely to be the main spreaders, and until a reasonable portion of <65 year olds are vaccinated, the spread is likely to continue and probably even flatten before that point. However since most countries in the world are in the middle of a 2nd/3rd wave, it makes absolute sense to vaccinate the vulnerable first rather than try race against the curve with a vaccination programme. Especially when the vaccination lag is longer than the spread.
- dehrmann 6y ago> less about stopping spread and more about reducing fatalities among the most vulnerable This is a reasonable strategy, but I disagree with it. > the least vulnerable who are most likely to be the main spreaders [citation needed]. To my main point, we just don't understand how it spreads well enough to really say.
- surfmike 6y agoRight, I think parent isn’t talking about slowing the spread, but fatality rate in isolation. Since the deaths are highly concentrated in older people, once they’re all vaccinated then COVID will, on average, be much less lethal and there will be much less pressure on ICU beds.
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- kart23 6y agoThe people going out, being social and contributing to case counts are mostly younger healthy people. Which are among the last to get vaccinated. There was a fascinating article here a while ago claiming that if we vaccinated those people first, we actually would stop the spread far quicker.
- throwaway189262 6y agoYoung people have far lower fatality and hospitalization rates though. If COVID only infected people under 40 it would be equivalent to a bad flu season. A lot of reason for mask wearing and social distancing is to protect the vulnerable
- kart23 6y agoyeah, i mean that’s why we are vaccinating the most vulnerable first and i agree that’s the ethically right thing to do. but doing it the other way around would probably stop it quicker.
- Pinguinsan 6y agoHas the vaccine been shown to prevent transmission?
- redis_mlc 6y agoNah, half of Americans won't take it. I'm interested if the vaccine works on all strains.
- supernova87a 6y agoIs anyone else totally unclear about how exactly you are supposed to sign up or be placed in a waiting line for the vaccine? I'm not too concerned about myself, but say, my parents? Who is keeping the order of the queue or adding people to it in a way that you know when you're supposed to expect to get the vaccine? Is it just up to your personal doctor? A local hospital? The county? Who is keeping the list? Who do you ask to be added? Maybe I'm not a key/critical category person so I am not in the target group, but aside from the high level CDC guidance on who should get it, there seems to be a vast chasm of lack of information / authority connecting to the individual person to know how to take action to receive the vaccine. But again, maybe I'm missing something. It seems like a total chaos fest, muddling / random walking our way through the crisis. I guess the same theme as the entire handling of the situation in the US. God forbid we have some centralized authoritative list of who is who, and who does what, to know when someone should get the vaccine. But I guess when 0% are vaccinated, anything even half-assed is useful.
- knrz 6y agoThere’s pilots you can sign up for, eg for SF https://wecanbeatcovid.org/ https://wecanbeatcovid.org/ Pre-screening questions and then they’ll call you if they’re interested. Roommate got a call within a week, but another three of us haven’t heard back. Probably depends somewhat on diversity. My guess is that your best shot is applying as soon as one of these studies open up registration. FIFO.
- birken 6y agoThere is an extremely large difference between taking an approved (with emergency authorization) vaccine and joining a research study where you could be getting a different vaccine at earlier stages of approval or potentially a placebo. Joining a research study is great and helps push the science forward with other vaccines or whatever the researchers are studying, but it is not at all the same thing as scheduling when you are going to be getting an approved vaccine.
- Exmoor 6y agoAt this point I believe it's just frontline health workers and elderly individuals in assisted living facilities. In those situations eligible people are being notified by their applicable institutions (employer, etc.) to schedule their first dose. I'm not sure what the process will look like once things get more broad (over 65, etc.), but I suspect it will be well publicized.
- bawolff 6y agoLooking on from canada, /me jelly. I know we'll get there too and i just have to be patient. I just really want covid to be over with already.
- dehrmann 6y agoIs it my US-centric news, or are the vaccines really getting distributed to the US much faster than other countries. I know one was approved in the UK recently, and Germany hasn't been happy that a vaccine they helped develop hasn't gotten approval there, yet. There is the Russian vaccine, but I haven't seen any peer-reviewed results.
- morsch 6y agoThe Biontech vaccine has actually been approved and distributed in the EU a couple of days ago. But the EU seems to have done a bad job on procurement, and vaccination will take longer as a result, with general availability in the summer, if and only if the AZ vaccine is approved. It's a disaster and I'm pretty sure unless they can conjure up a solution, there will be a public outcry. But the EU and its members are pretty good at disavowing responsibility to one another when something bad happens.
- the_mitsuhiko 6y agoWhat exactly is the disaster? The only holdup was that the EU countries did not want to use emergency use approvals so there is only a single approval so far (Pfizer). The procurement seems okay. Austria where I am has orders from Pfizer until end of Q2 for 25% of the population alone.
- morsch 6y agoI don't have an issue with the approval process itself. But Isreal, for example, expects delivery of enough doses to vaccinate 60% by the end of Q1. They just ordered more. We didn't. https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/israel-impfungen-coronavirus-101.html https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/israel-impfungen-coronavir...
- raverbashing 6y ago2Mi is a great number. But it is less than 1% of the US pop These things take time. And those are the more complicated shots, waiting for other cheaper/easier to store vaccines ends up being a necessity
- throwaway4good 6y ago"Based on current schedules, the Department of Health and Human Services estimates that there will be enough doses of COVID-19 vaccine available in the United States to vaccinate 20 million Americans by the end of 2020, 50 million by the end of January 2021 and 100 million by the end of the first quarter of 2021, HHS Secretary Alex Azar said in a press call on Dec. 9." From: https://www.pharmacypracticenews.com/Covid-19/Article/12-20/20-Million-Could-Be-Vaccinated-for-COVID-in-U-S-by-Year-s-End/61389 https://www.pharmacypracticenews.com/Covid-19/Article/12-20/...
- garmaine 6y agoAnd yet here we are at the end of 2020 with 2 million vaccinations, not the promised 20M. And in the same period of time, 3M have caught the disease.
- throwaway4good 6y agoYes. The pandemic has far from peaked and the plans and projections are overly optimistic.
- ryanwaggoner 6y agoActually, the claim was that 20M doses would be available, not administered. And just over 11M have been distributed, with 2.5 days remaining in the year. That's pretty good considering that quote was from three weeks ago. We can always do better, but I'm shocked at how well this has gone over the last month.
- garmaine 6y agoI’m not. At this rate it will take 8 years to fully vaccinate.
- ryanwaggoner 6y agoThere’s no reason to expect it’ll continue at this rate.
- cozzyd 6y agoI'm not sure I buy the wisdom of warehousing the second dose rather than giving more first doses. An eager allocation strategy seems like it would result in higher vaccine throughput, and it's unlikely to result in an out-of-vaccine situation for the people who received the first dose given the production rate...
- emptybits 6y agoFWIW, here's the Canadian plan,[1] since there seem to be a good number of us Canucks on HN and it's natural to wonder/follow/compare with our close neighbours. Some key points from the Canadian plan: (page 11) * Canada has access to 7 vaccine candidates and regulatory authorization for 4 of them (Pfizer, Moderna, Janssen, AstraZeneca) * 6 million doses (out of 38 million Canadians) to be delivered by March 2021 * "Pending regulatory authorization, Canada is well-positioned to immunize 100% of the population in 2021." * general population vaccinations begin in April 2021 [2] [1] https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/canadas-reponse/canadas-covid-19-immunization-plan-en.pdf https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/servic... [2] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-in-canada-by-province-explainer/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-vacc...
- kart23 6y agoI'd be VERY interested to see vaccination rates among healthcare workers. I've heard some anecdotes that nurses and even doctors are refusing the vaccine at this point in time. This article says from a survey only a third of nurses would voluntarily take a vaccine, which is a lot lower than I expected. https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/12/08/health-care-workers-can-decline-a-covid-19-shot-for-now https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/sta...