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Check https://OurWorldInData.org https://OurWorldInData.org to see that a lot of our woes do not get worse with time. A lot of things are actually getting bette

Check https://OurWorldInData.org https://OurWorldInData.org to see that a lot of our woes do not get worse with time. A lot of things are actually getting better quite fast. That does not mean that everything is good yet but at least it is better than it was in the past. The past sucked. A lot. Also: peak population growth rate was 50 years ago and it has been decreasing since then: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth-past-future https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth-past-futu...

jl2718 6y ago
Net population growth has not certainly peaked. The earth’s resources are limited in absolute terms, not in terms of exponential growth. A linear increase looks like a declining exponential rate, but still grows unbounded. Any trend of growth exceeding a constant multiple of the inverse total is unbounded.
- _Microft 6y ago
  > Net population growth has not certainly peaked. Net population growth peaked 30 years ago, see [0]. The rest is "technically true" if you argue solely based on an exponential model. That's not how it works. There is more to modelling population growth (or a pandemic for that matter) than just fitting an exponential. People had lots of children in the past because almost half of them died young and the parents needed children to care for them when they were old. So they defaulted to "more children". Then child mortality was brought down and people adapted with delay - which lead to more people growing up and increasing the population. Then people adapted and the fertility rate fell a lot and in some cases even very fast. Compare how fast Iran an South Korea transitioned and see how long it took the United Kingdom to do so before [1]. The articles on "Our World in Data" are really interesting and the people behind it make lots of effort to ensure good quality of the data. I can really recommend to checkout the website. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-population https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-... [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?tab=chart&country=GBR~IRN~KOR&region=World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?t...
renjimen 6y ago
Yeah, OWID is great, as is Hans Rosling's work (mentioned below) concerning human welfare improvement. The past definitely sucked a lot. My main concern with overpopulation is that we may have already exceeded the sustainable carrying capacity of the planet, which can have disastrous consequences for all. Soil and fresh water availability spring to mind as ever pressing issues resulting from unsustainable practices in many parts of the world. Climate change is sure to stress agriculture further. Dietary changes and technology will surely help but judging from how reactive we appear to be as species, I don't have high hopes. https://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/ https://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/

jl2718 6y ago

Net population growth has not certainly peaked. The earth’s resources are limited in absolute terms, not in terms of exponential growth. A linear increase looks like a declining exponential rate, but still grows unbounded. Any trend of growth exceeding a constant multiple of the inverse total is unbounded.

_Microft 6y ago
> Net population growth has not certainly peaked. Net population growth peaked 30 years ago, see [0]. The rest is "technically true" if you argue solely based on an exponential model. That's not how it works. There is more to modelling population growth (or a pandemic for that matter) than just fitting an exponential. People had lots of children in the past because almost half of them died young and the parents needed children to care for them when they were old. So they defaulted to "more children". Then child mortality was brought down and people adapted with delay - which lead to more people growing up and increasing the population. Then people adapted and the fertility rate fell a lot and in some cases even very fast. Compare how fast Iran an South Korea transitioned and see how long it took the United Kingdom to do so before [1]. The articles on "Our World in Data" are really interesting and the people behind it make lots of effort to ensure good quality of the data. I can really recommend to checkout the website. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-population https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-... [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?tab=chart&country=GBR~IRN~KOR&region=World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?t...

renjimen 6y ago

Yeah, OWID is great, as is Hans Rosling's work (mentioned below) concerning human welfare improvement. The past definitely sucked a lot. My main concern with overpopulation is that we may have already exceeded the sustainable carrying capacity of the planet, which can have disastrous consequences for all. Soil and fresh water availability spring to mind as ever pressing issues resulting from unsustainable practices in many parts of the world. Climate change is sure to stress agriculture further. Dietary changes and technology will surely help but judging from how reactive we appear to be as species, I don't have high hopes. https://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/ https://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/