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The change is because of sheer economic force and basic technological progress. Coal is becoming relatively more expensive and it's been outmoded by superior te

The change is because of sheer economic force and basic technological progress. Coal is becoming relatively more expensive and it's been outmoded by superior technology Coal production is down for the same reason arithmometer and rotary dial telephone production is down. Nobody needs it. The economics of overproduction doesn't change the unit cost. Unless the UK wants to heavily subsidize coal at a major loss and force themselves to continue to use antiquated technology to prop up this energy buggy whip, it's done. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_sourc...

roenxi 6y ago
There is a 110 year roughly-linear downtrend in UK coal production. Recent technical improvements would have had some, but minor, impacts on the UK de-coaling their economy compared to that. > Unless the UK wants to heavily subsidize coal at a major loss and force themselves to continue to use antiquated technology to prop up this energy buggy whip, it's done. If the buggy whip drove further & faster than a motor vehicle we'd still be using them. Coal produced more electricity than their new setup does. This is more akin to all the horses being dead so everyone has to move to bicycles. Arguably not a big step back, but not obviously better.
- inglor_cz 6y ago
  "This is more akin to all the horses being dead" In this case, the horses are far from dead, but people are unhappy about all the manure that stems from their use. Accidentally, the problem with manure in city streets was a major motivator for a switch from horse carriages to early cars.
  - patrickk 6y ago
    > In this case, the horses are far from dead, but people are unhappy about all the manure that stems from their use. Very nice analogy. Having major coastal cities underwater or regularly threatened with huge flooding is the 21st century version of manure piling up on the street.
- kristopolous 6y ago
  It's trended downward because of the basic economics of the "peak oil" argument - it has become more scarce and thus more expensive to extract. The "more electricity" point is a red herring. Cost per kwh is all that matters. That's like pointing to AM radio being around longer saying it produced more hours of audio and then trying to use that as a basis for it being of superior quality. It's just older. The bicycle argument is also a total misunderstanding of the vast technical superiority of things like modern solar. The aptera and light-year one automobiles for instance, both due next year, will feature solar panels, that in sunny climates, will charge a vehicle more miles than an average daily commute. This means that in typical use, the owner will never need to plug in or otherwise fuel up the vehicle, at all. For a WFHer like myself it means I effectively will always hop in with a "full tank". I'm excited and you should be too. These are the 1.0 version of the cars. Wait until the 5th or 10th year. In 2030, a 1,500 or 2,000 mile range vehicle that fueled itself merely by sitting outside is what I'll be driving. You can continue going to the gas station and paying $10-20/gallon if you wish. Have fun. There's significant revolutions in energy coming in the 2020s. Such as partially transparent photovoltaics that transition window UV exposure with the sunlight so you get a pleasant adaptive window coating that also powers your home. We're on the road to effectively unmetered energy. We are doimg much better than coal now. Let's keep moving
  - DrBazza 6y ago
    > In 2030, a 1,500 or 2,000 mile range vehicle that fueled itself merely by sitting outside is what I'll be driving. You can continue going to the gas station and paying $10-20/gallon if you wish. Have fun. Battery technology seems to anecdotally increase capacity at 10% year on year, at best. The typical electric car has a battery that gets 150-200 miles at the moment. I don't expect to see a 1500-2000 mile range battery in 10 years. Or even 20 years. You'll also "pay" the same tax/duty per mile as you currently do, when the law changes to include GPS chips in every car to track your mileage, since the government can no longer tax petrol at the pump. The next 10 years might be the golden 'cheap' era for electric cars before governments figure out how to make up the fossil fuel tax shortfall.
    - kristopolous 6y ago
caeril 6y ago
> it's been outmoded by superior technology I assume you mean natural gas, since renewables are still a small portion of the overall energy mix. Bear in mind that fracked gas wells decline much faster than conventional ones, and the only reason gas is so cheap is due to fracked wells. It's anybody's guess how long this "superior technology" will last. Let's also not ignore the fact that coal use has effectively been exported to China as the UK/US increasingly rely on manufacturing abroad. We still share a single atmosphere, and global coal consumption is up 6.2% from 2010, regardless of how much the UK/US have reduced their specific share: https://www.worldometers.info/coal/ https://www.worldometers.info/coal/
alexchamberlain 6y ago
Isn't coal used as an ingredient to products, such as stainless steel, too though?
- pjc50 6y ago
  Any steel. It's OK, most of that industry is gone already, partly due to the Thatcherite era, and partly due to the exhaustion of the iron mines that caused it to be built in the first place. (It's most efficient to do iron refining as close as possible to the iron and coal mines since all the components are so heavy and much of the ore ends up as waste slag)
vkou 6y ago
Coal isn't becoming meaningfully more expensive. Coal costs ~$30/tonne. It's why it's been so difficult to replace.

roenxi 6y ago

There is a 110 year roughly-linear downtrend in UK coal production. Recent technical improvements would have had some, but minor, impacts on the UK de-coaling their economy compared to that. > Unless the UK wants to heavily subsidize coal at a major loss and force themselves to continue to use antiquated technology to prop up this energy buggy whip, it's done. If the buggy whip drove further & faster than a motor vehicle we'd still be using them. Coal produced more electricity than their new setup does. This is more akin to all the horses being dead so everyone has to move to bicycles. Arguably not a big step back, but not obviously better.

inglor_cz 6y ago
"This is more akin to all the horses being dead" In this case, the horses are far from dead, but people are unhappy about all the manure that stems from their use. Accidentally, the problem with manure in city streets was a major motivator for a switch from horse carriages to early cars.
- patrickk 6y ago
  > In this case, the horses are far from dead, but people are unhappy about all the manure that stems from their use. Very nice analogy. Having major coastal cities underwater or regularly threatened with huge flooding is the 21st century version of manure piling up on the street.
kristopolous 6y ago
It's trended downward because of the basic economics of the "peak oil" argument - it has become more scarce and thus more expensive to extract. The "more electricity" point is a red herring. Cost per kwh is all that matters. That's like pointing to AM radio being around longer saying it produced more hours of audio and then trying to use that as a basis for it being of superior quality. It's just older. The bicycle argument is also a total misunderstanding of the vast technical superiority of things like modern solar. The aptera and light-year one automobiles for instance, both due next year, will feature solar panels, that in sunny climates, will charge a vehicle more miles than an average daily commute. This means that in typical use, the owner will never need to plug in or otherwise fuel up the vehicle, at all. For a WFHer like myself it means I effectively will always hop in with a "full tank". I'm excited and you should be too. These are the 1.0 version of the cars. Wait until the 5th or 10th year. In 2030, a 1,500 or 2,000 mile range vehicle that fueled itself merely by sitting outside is what I'll be driving. You can continue going to the gas station and paying $10-20/gallon if you wish. Have fun. There's significant revolutions in energy coming in the 2020s. Such as partially transparent photovoltaics that transition window UV exposure with the sunlight so you get a pleasant adaptive window coating that also powers your home. We're on the road to effectively unmetered energy. We are doimg much better than coal now. Let's keep moving
- DrBazza 6y ago
  > In 2030, a 1,500 or 2,000 mile range vehicle that fueled itself merely by sitting outside is what I'll be driving. You can continue going to the gas station and paying $10-20/gallon if you wish. Have fun. Battery technology seems to anecdotally increase capacity at 10% year on year, at best. The typical electric car has a battery that gets 150-200 miles at the moment. I don't expect to see a 1500-2000 mile range battery in 10 years. Or even 20 years. You'll also "pay" the same tax/duty per mile as you currently do, when the law changes to include GPS chips in every car to track your mileage, since the government can no longer tax petrol at the pump. The next 10 years might be the golden 'cheap' era for electric cars before governments figure out how to make up the fossil fuel tax shortfall.
  - kristopolous 6y ago

caeril 6y ago

> it's been outmoded by superior technology I assume you mean natural gas, since renewables are still a small portion of the overall energy mix. Bear in mind that fracked gas wells decline much faster than conventional ones, and the only reason gas is so cheap is due to fracked wells. It's anybody's guess how long this "superior technology" will last. Let's also not ignore the fact that coal use has effectively been exported to China as the UK/US increasingly rely on manufacturing abroad. We still share a single atmosphere, and global coal consumption is up 6.2% from 2010, regardless of how much the UK/US have reduced their specific share: https://www.worldometers.info/coal/ https://www.worldometers.info/coal/

alexchamberlain 6y ago

Isn't coal used as an ingredient to products, such as stainless steel, too though?

pjc50 6y ago
Any steel. It's OK, most of that industry is gone already, partly due to the Thatcherite era, and partly due to the exhaustion of the iron mines that caused it to be built in the first place. (It's most efficient to do iron refining as close as possible to the iron and coal mines since all the components are so heavy and much of the ore ends up as waste slag)

vkou 6y ago

Coal isn't becoming meaningfully more expensive. Coal costs ~$30/tonne. It's why it's been so difficult to replace.