4 ms·

The S&P 500 about halved following the dot com bubble, and did the same thing again in 2007-8. That doesn’t seem to fit your thesis.

• lotsofpulp 6y ago
  I wrote that you have to be able to wait 5 years.
  • dash2 6y ago
    That doesn’t work either. The S&P 500 was only just back to its 2000 level in 2008... and then crashed again.
    • lotsofpulp 6y ago
      True about times before 2008, I only entered the game that year. I guess my feelings are more based on the fact that I have only seen the Fed have a trigger finger anytime markets go down or stagnate, and so I assume their strategy is to prop them up. I also see the pension mess wreaking having on state and local governments, plus increasing baby boomer population retiring with 401k/IRAs, so there's lots of political will to keep markets going higher.
      • dash2 6y ago
        Yup, this is true. But that is not unlimited. I doubt if most central bankers would accept taking the health of major indices as a target. If some indices start to look very overvalued, or if pumping the markets starts to cause inflation more generally, then there will be a pressure to take the punch bowl away. Interesting times.
  • dash2 6y ago
    Nb also this, which just came out: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28253 https://www.nber.org/papers/w28253