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No one ever answers a question like that to a satisfying degree. I made a bunch of money speculating on the swings of stocks. Not with options, just patience,

No one ever answers a question like that to a satisfying degree. I made a bunch of money speculating on the swings of stocks. Not with options, just patience, and it enabled me to make wild returns. For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months, which tripled my initial capital. I did similar but with a risky few pharma stocks. PLTR tripled since IPO (and unlike AirBNB it wasn't rigged to benefit banks-and-friends) so that's another 200% return. While many people dump their capital into index funds, I keep most of my money in cash and speculate wildly with a fraction of it, and my returns over the past 5 years exceed what many large funds do. I also learn about industries and follow news that I wouldn't otherwise. Stock market index funds terrify me because I want to use the cash in the coming years for property. I don't know, but none of this seems healthy and normal. I've been following the financial press for a long time almost daily, and I'm pretty confident no one's proclamations of the bottom or top can be trusted in advance. We'll know in months or years whether we're in a top.

thewarrior 6y ago
What portions of your returns are due to luck in your view ? Also you said you entered and exited virgin 13 times. How do you time your exits. Are you willing to reveal your strategies or algorithms?
- Gustomaximus 6y ago
  > For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months
hanoz 6y ago
> For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months, which tripled my initial capital You would have more than tripled your capital if you'd bought 14 months ago and held until today.
- mancerayder 6y ago
  That's patently incorrect, actually. Today the stock is 24.39. On 30/10/2019 I purchased a quantity at $12.40. Let's continue. I sold it all in 2/2020 in 3 separate transactions between $32-$37. Later, I repurchased it at $22, and again two more times as it dropped to the 18's. I then sold everything again at $28... about 10 days ago. So it was two sets of purchases and sales, not three. So no, buying and holding would have not maximized my gains. And this is true for many stocks. By the way, this is in an IRA account so there is no need to think about short v. long-term cap gain taxes here. The behavior in my main brokerage accounts accounts a bit more for the potential tax implications. However, if it's a volatile stock and I think went up or down in an extreme way that I think isn't justified, I'll jump in.
CarelessExpert 6y ago
No disrespect intended, but unless you have insider information, this is almost certainly luck and, used as an example, is simply selection bias. The markets have never been more efficient. Beating the market consistently over 5 years, particularly these last 5 years, which have been part of an unprecedented bull run in the market, means nothing. There's been many hedge fund managers who pulled off outsized returns over those sorts of timeframes only to go on and fail in subsequent endeavours.

thewarrior 6y ago

What portions of your returns are due to luck in your view ? Also you said you entered and exited virgin 13 times. How do you time your exits. Are you willing to reveal your strategies or algorithms?

Gustomaximus 6y ago
> For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months

hanoz 6y ago

> For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months, which tripled my initial capital You would have more than tripled your capital if you'd bought 14 months ago and held until today.

mancerayder 6y ago
That's patently incorrect, actually. Today the stock is 24.39. On 30/10/2019 I purchased a quantity at $12.40. Let's continue. I sold it all in 2/2020 in 3 separate transactions between $32-$37. Later, I repurchased it at $22, and again two more times as it dropped to the 18's. I then sold everything again at $28... about 10 days ago. So it was two sets of purchases and sales, not three. So no, buying and holding would have not maximized my gains. And this is true for many stocks. By the way, this is in an IRA account so there is no need to think about short v. long-term cap gain taxes here. The behavior in my main brokerage accounts accounts a bit more for the potential tax implications. However, if it's a volatile stock and I think went up or down in an extreme way that I think isn't justified, I'll jump in.

CarelessExpert 6y ago

No disrespect intended, but unless you have insider information, this is almost certainly luck and, used as an example, is simply selection bias. The markets have never been more efficient. Beating the market consistently over 5 years, particularly these last 5 years, which have been part of an unprecedented bull run in the market, means nothing. There's been many hedge fund managers who pulled off outsized returns over those sorts of timeframes only to go on and fail in subsequent endeavours.