3 ms·
> there's an estimated 8.7 million unique species of plants and animals currently on Earth. So [...] there's a one in 10 million chance of "intelligent" life ev
by Gupie 6y ago
> there's an estimated 8.7 million unique species of plants and animals currently on Earth. So [...] there's a one in 10 million chance of "intelligent" life evolving on a planet that supports life
Isn't that the probability that a species is intelligent. The probability that intelligence will eventually evolve on a planet with life is 1.0, from the evidence that we have so far.
- anonymousiam 6y agoSure, the probability is 1.0 given infinite time. It took 4.5 billion years for us to get here, and we didn't get started until 5 million years ago. That means Earth went through 99.89% of its existence with no intelligent life. Also, Earth has had numerous extinction events that killed off at least 3/4 of land-based life (and 96% of marine life). We have no way of knowing whether extinction events are more, or less common on other habitable planets, or whether such events might even be necessary for the evolution of intelligent life.
- Geminidog 6y agoThis is a serious misunderstanding of probability. When someone won the lottery in the past he did not have a 100% chance of winning the lottery even though in hind sight he won. A person who has a 1 in a million chance to win the lottery CAN still win the lottery. And if he does win the lottery, his chances of winning was STILL one in a million. Same with life in the universe. Just because it happened does not make the probability of it happening at all 100%. Far from it.
- Gupie 6y agoI was only joking when saying 100%, but it is high. It is like having a bag of 1000 marble and you put your hand in and pull out a green one. You now know that the probability that there are a lot of green marbles in the bag is high.