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There are exactly three other countries with the supply chain, manpower, funding, and infrastructure to build large scale commercial access to space. Not a sing

There are exactly three other countries with the supply chain, manpower, funding, and infrastructure to build large scale commercial access to space. Not a single one of them are members of NATO. Space X doesn't really have many options.

TeMPOraL 6y ago
You may be forgetting a bunch of other countries that do space together, and as a group they have "the supply chain, manpower, funding, and infrastructure to build large scale commercial access to space", and are members of NATO. That said, I haven't seen as much interest in commercial space launch vehicles over here as I'd like to.
- ben_w 6y ago
  I hope the European version of Musk/SpaceX attempts a non-rocket based launch system. Whoever eventually surpasses SpaceX almost certainly won’t be doing so by chasing after SpaceX‘s strengths.
  - TeMPOraL 6y ago
    > a non-rocket based launch system Do we have any feasible non-rocket options to do on Earth, though? Air-breathing first stage is all I can think of (but it's essentially still a rocket). Skyhooks and space elevators will have to wait for advances in materials science and will require orbital manufacturing capabilities. Launch loops seem to be too complicated either. Mini launch loops / big guns / other constructs that provide all kinetic energy at ground level won't work because of atmosphere density, and even if you had magic materials that'd survive hypersonic shocks and G forces, it'd still be a ridiculous waste of energy compared to rockets. At this point I think we don't need anyone surpassing SpaceX, we just need more people copying them. In of itself, it'll drive launch costs further down.
    - ben_w 6y ago
      > Do we have any feasible non-rocket options to do on Earth, though? Not yet, no — but a decade ago we didn’t have powered landing and rapid reuse of first stages either. While that observation doesn’t guarantee future tech could (or should) be made, I am an optimist when it comes to tech.
      - christophilus 6y ago
        One is an iteration on a proven design. One is a completely unknown new design. I’m not being defeatist, just pointing out that I’m not sure the latter is easier than chasing SpaceX’s strengths.
        mulmen 6y ago
        We had air-dropped spaceships [1] in the early 1960s. It's how some of the first American astronauts were made. It's proven tech but just hasn't had a practical application in the last half-century. Some kind of air-dropped passenger ferry could be imagined that gets people to something like a Starship in orbit, or maybe a space hotel. There are a couple of projects along these lines right now, both involving Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites [2,3]. Stratolaunch went through several iterations of spacecraft, at one point I believe it was even going to drop a SpaceX rocket! With Paul Allen's passing not sure what the plans are currently. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_X-15 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_X-15 [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight... [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_Stratolaunch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_Stratolaunch
Thlom 6y ago
France and ESA has a space port in French Guiana where at least Ariane is doing commercial launches. When launching to space you would want to launch to the east to get assistance from the earth rotation. You would want to launch over ocean so any debris/stages don't crash into populated areas. There's not that many places that is suitable. China has due to geo politics and secrecy three space ports deep inland and it's not unusual that launch stages crash into populated areas. Probably why they've started to launch from ocean platforms.

TeMPOraL 6y ago

You may be forgetting a bunch of other countries that do space together, and as a group they have "the supply chain, manpower, funding, and infrastructure to build large scale commercial access to space", and are members of NATO. That said, I haven't seen as much interest in commercial space launch vehicles over here as I'd like to.

ben_w 6y ago
I hope the European version of Musk/SpaceX attempts a non-rocket based launch system. Whoever eventually surpasses SpaceX almost certainly won’t be doing so by chasing after SpaceX‘s strengths.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago
  > a non-rocket based launch system Do we have any feasible non-rocket options to do on Earth, though? Air-breathing first stage is all I can think of (but it's essentially still a rocket). Skyhooks and space elevators will have to wait for advances in materials science and will require orbital manufacturing capabilities. Launch loops seem to be too complicated either. Mini launch loops / big guns / other constructs that provide all kinetic energy at ground level won't work because of atmosphere density, and even if you had magic materials that'd survive hypersonic shocks and G forces, it'd still be a ridiculous waste of energy compared to rockets. At this point I think we don't need anyone surpassing SpaceX, we just need more people copying them. In of itself, it'll drive launch costs further down.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    > Do we have any feasible non-rocket options to do on Earth, though? Not yet, no — but a decade ago we didn’t have powered landing and rapid reuse of first stages either. While that observation doesn’t guarantee future tech could (or should) be made, I am an optimist when it comes to tech.
    - christophilus 6y ago
      One is an iteration on a proven design. One is a completely unknown new design. I’m not being defeatist, just pointing out that I’m not sure the latter is easier than chasing SpaceX’s strengths.
      - mulmen 6y ago
        We had air-dropped spaceships [1] in the early 1960s. It's how some of the first American astronauts were made. It's proven tech but just hasn't had a practical application in the last half-century. Some kind of air-dropped passenger ferry could be imagined that gets people to something like a Starship in orbit, or maybe a space hotel. There are a couple of projects along these lines right now, both involving Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites [2,3]. Stratolaunch went through several iterations of spacecraft, at one point I believe it was even going to drop a SpaceX rocket! With Paul Allen's passing not sure what the plans are currently. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_X-15 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_X-15 [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight... [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_Stratolaunch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_Stratolaunch

Thlom 6y ago

France and ESA has a space port in French Guiana where at least Ariane is doing commercial launches. When launching to space you would want to launch to the east to get assistance from the earth rotation. You would want to launch over ocean so any debris/stages don't crash into populated areas. There's not that many places that is suitable. China has due to geo politics and secrecy three space ports deep inland and it's not unusual that launch stages crash into populated areas. Probably why they've started to launch from ocean platforms.