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Even if we manage to tackle the climate crisis, I wonder how we will address the accompanying ecological collapse that seems to be rapidly accelerating.
by jibcage 6y ago
Even if we manage to tackle the climate crisis, I wonder how we will address the accompanying ecological collapse that seems to be rapidly accelerating.
- diveanon 6y agoWe won't. It makes me sad to think that 50-100 years from now most of the species we know and many more we don't will be extinct. The only things left alive will be what we need to survive and whatever manages to carve a niche out of the blasted landscapes we leave in our wake.
- the-dude 6y agoIsn't this a bit exaggerated?
- eggsmediumrare 6y agoBetter to act like it isn't.
- pessimizer 6y agoCare to offer your own diagnosis, or just here to frown at people?
- diveanon 6y agoI'm old, I tried over my lifetime and failed. Give it a shot if you care. Education isn't the problem, it's the will to sacrifice our comfort for a better world.
- ironmagma 6y agoIn what sense? Seems realistic to me. The past ten years alone have been terrible for extinction; we lost about 500 species. And there is a feedback loop with these sorts of things.
- mimikatz 6y agoYou're not accounting for adaptation, which nature is very good at.
- cloudwalking 6y agoNot at the timescale humans are forcing.
- sp332 6y agoThings will probably fill in niches later, but there will still be a lot fewer species by the end of the century, which is what the original comment said.
- diveanon 6y agoEvolution takes time. We are much better at consumption than nature is at adaptation.
- the-dude 6y agoDo you have a source for that fishy number?
- Omnitaus 6y ago"Since 1900, 543 species of vertebrates have gone extinct. And those are just the ones we know of. In the past century, we have witnessed the disappearance of the ivory-billed woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), the Round Island burrowing boa (Bolyeria multocarinata), the laughing owl (Ninox albifacies), the sea mink (Neovison macrodon), and the golden toad (Incilius periglenes), to name a few." https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/less-than-a-thousand-remain-new-list-of-animals-on-the-brink-of-extinction/ https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/less-than-a-thousand-remai...
- the-dude 6y ago@Omnitaus, you seem to be dead? Check the thread in incognito.
- 6y ago
- sp332 6y agoHere's an estimate that shows one third of all species going extinct by 2070 https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/21/weather/species-extinction-climate-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/21/weather/species-extinction-cl... And "In a worst-case scenario, that number could rise to over 55%."
- ckastner 6y agoThis protected death of millions of species, 50 years out from now, is based on an analysis of 538 of them. That sounds woefully inadequate information for something as complex as what this model is trying predict. That's like predicting the weather from only a handful of temperature sensors, or doing patient studies with N=4.
- hanniabu 6y agoIf you select the proper species then you can make fairly accurate deductions due to cascading effects of the food chain.
- diveanon 6y agoKey indicators and foundational species like coral are effective metrics. A mass die offs of coral, which is currently happening, will decimate ocean ecosystems and have a cascading effect on the rest of the world. People have been saying this for decades, its not new news. Its just inconvenient and impacts shareholders.
- giardini 6y agoLuckily no one is able to predict most anything beyond 4 years in the future. Ask any economist or epidemiologist.
- diveanon 6y agoThis is false. We have been accurately modeling climate change for over 50 years now. Also, epidemiologist have been predicting a coronavirus outbreak specifically for about 10 years, and a larger global pandemic for about 100. You can choose to ignore science if you want, but that doesn't mean people havent been warning us.
- alltakendamned 6y agoI think we can debate magnitude, but not direction. I feel recently it's been a long time since I came across examples of where nature is increased or restored. Every time it's about nature disappearing.
- sojournerc 6y agoBeware of availability bias here. Bad news is reported far more often than good. There are signs of the planet greening as a result of higher CO2, for instance. That doesn't diminish the potential damage, but it's not all bad.
- diveanon 6y agoThe largest mass extinction in history was due to rising 02 levels. Its the rate of change, not the change itself that causes mass extinctions.
- diveanon 6y agoThe only example I can think of is the area around Chernobyl seeing a return of many species. Which just goes to show that deadly radiation is better for the environment than the presence of humans.
- diveanon 6y agoNot really, we have lost 50% of the life in our oceans over the last 30 years. Current trends show major ecological collapse within our lifetimes.
- loopz 6y agoDavid Attenborough thinks we can. We simply can't afford not to in the newest Netflix documentary: David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet (2020) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11989890/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11989890/ But it doesn't mean it won't happen without a wake-up call. The answer is simple, just stop destroying what has caused unprecedented equilibrium in temperatures during the latest rise of civilization in the past 10k years.
- diveanon 6y agoDavid Attenborough believes its his responsibility to give a message of hope in the effort of making a change. I admire his drive, but I also believe it is futile. Humankind has done nothing but expand and devour over its short history on this planet, nothing that we have done makes me think this trend will stop.
- electricEmu 6y agoFor years I've watched the rivers in Washington State receive consideration. Progress has been made and continues to be. Saying humankind has done "nothing" is not only mistaken, but makes for poor conversation. Perhaps more people should take a page from Attenborough. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/dec/17/for-the-first-time-in-more-than-80-years-salmon-sp/ https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/dec/17/for-the-first-...
- diveanon 6y agoI think it speaks volumes that the very people responsible for this positive change were themselves victims of near extinction due to consumption and greed. The only real hope the worlds ecosystems have is drastic and sudden reduction in human population, which won't be pleasant for anyone. This was proved by the resurgence of nature in the areas surrounding Chernobyl. I've been a part of a coral conservation project in SEAsia for the last 15 years, and we have seen more recovery over the last year due to tourists being gone than ever before. Unfortunately the boat captains who were ferrying snorkelers before have gone back to fishing the reefs, so that change was short lived. We are also beginning to see signs of a major bleaching event. The long term impacts of COVID are going to see a relaxation of ecological protections worldwide, which I imagine will have a similar effect.
- cloudwalking 6y agoIt’s not just climate change which is destroying these ecosystems. A huge factor is pesticide killing huge numbers of bugs, which these birds eat.
- giardini 6y agoPlease post relevant links and arguments showing that pesticide is killing huge numbers of bugs unnecessarily (we do use pesticides for farming, after all).
- cloudwalking 6y agohttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeti... "More than 40% of insect species are declining and a third are endangered" "The analysis, published in the journal Biological Conservation, says intensive agriculture is the main driver of the declines, particularly the heavy use of pesticides."
- whalesalad 6y agoclimate crisis == ecological collapse they are one in the same
- anonuser123456 6y agoPersonally, I envision a world like blade runner 2049. Humans thrive with technology and the earth ceases to be our parent, providing for us. I don't personally worry about the collapse of the ecosystem as some major long term issue. Major extinction events have occurred in the past, and it portends a massive explosion of diversity as life adapts to the new ecosystem. In a few million years our AI ancestors will tend an amazing garden of native, artificial and synthetic hybrid life. And if we don't make it... multicellular life will continue to flourish and evolve.
- walleeee 6y ago> Humans thrive with technology and the earth ceases to be our parent, providing for us. What leads you to believe this? I often see similar sentiments on this website. I don't understand it. Maybe I'm missing something. High technology is fragile. As far as I can tell, it's nowhere close to self-sufficient. It's the pinnacle of a massive edifice whose foundation is biology: in particular non-human life. Kick that out and the whole thing collapses. > And if we don't make it... multicellular life will continue to flourish and evolve. This does seem reasonably likely. Life is resilient. Human life and human engineering, not so much.
- hh3k0 6y agoWow. Just wow. That has to be the dumbest comment about climate change and biodiversity collapse I've read so far. If you are not concerned about anything which is not still impacting earth after time-scales that are approaching aeons have passed then you will surely have no qualms about wiring me all your money -- and hell, take some loans before you do that -- because what is it in the grand scheme of things, am I right?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- Mc_Big_G 6y agoThe height of nihilism. "I don't care what happens to humanity..."
- 6y ago
- hh3k0 6y agoI've recently seen a real hard-hitter of a picture online: https://i0.wp.com/mackaycartoons.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020-03-11revised3.jpg https://i0.wp.com/mackaycartoons.net/wp-content/uploads/2020...
- coderaptor 6y agoCan someone more familiar with the field post some applicable models for review?
- spodek 6y agoSystemic change begins with personal transformation. On a personal level, online calculators tell me I've reduced my footprint about 90 percent. More than the material change, I didn't expect it would improve my life so much -- saving money, time, increasing connection to family and control over my career, plus being invited to communities like food deserts who can benefit most from such transitions. I would bet most Americans could reduce about 70 or 80 percent with simple improvements they wish they did earlier. Most Silicon Valley types maybe 90 percent before any difficult decisions. My podcast and nonprofit's missions are to help people realize they'll like the change. Everyone presents sustainability as a burden, chore, or sacrifice. In practice, it's the opposite, but no one tries so haven't experienced it. They think not flying means not working or seeing their family. We're creating systemic change by leading well-known people to change, publicly so listeners have role models. Community influences people more than facts and figures, so we're focusing on people in everyone's communities. Many opportunities for rewarding change.
- i_love_music 6y agoThis sounds interesting. I'm interested in your podcast. Link?
- spodek 6y agoGlad to hear. This Sustainable Life: https://joshuaspodek.com/podcast https://joshuaspodek.com/podcast Here's a list of popular guests based on downloads: https://joshuaspodek.com/leadership-and-the-environment-top-downloads https://joshuaspodek.com/leadership-and-the-environment-top-... though I recommend the solo episodes of my reflections without guests, starting here: https://joshuaspodek.com/guests/solo-episodes-volume-15 https://joshuaspodek.com/guests/solo-episodes-volume-15. My three TEDx talks: https://joshuaspodek.com/tedx https://joshuaspodek.com/tedx
- specialist 6y agoGood stuff, thanks. Subscribed to your podcast. My two cents... Due to this pandemic, I'm finally eating the way I've always intended to. Beans, legumes, brown rices, chilis, stews, novel flours, baking. I've dropped 30lbs, now close to my ideal weight. I'm also eating non-stop, so it's not due calorie restriction. To maximize social distancing, and maybe reduce risk of food shortages, I've been buying bulk as much as possible. Another unexpected benefit is my food waste is now super low.
- carapace 6y agoThe good news is that we have the solutions already, we can regenerate ecosystems if we put our mind to it. For example, regenerate forests using Miyawaki's method: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akira_Miyawaki#Method_and_conditions_for_success https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akira_Miyawaki#Method_and_cond... > The Miyawaki method of reconstitution of "indigenous forests by indigenous trees" produces a rich, dense and efficient protective pioneer forest in 20 to 30 years ... this method, if properly applied, quickly produces a multi-layered forest and according to him, a soil with a microbial and acari composition quickly approaching that of a normal primary forest. And regenerative ecologically-harmonious agriculture, e.g.: "Treating the Farm as an Ecosystem with Gabe Brown Part 1, The 5 Tenets of Soil Health" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A Reversing desertification: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_greening https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_greening
- specialist 6y agoThanks for links. Our future Garden Earth will need a lot of labor, investment. I recently observed a couple dozen volunteers working on restoring some local woods (in a park). Removing rubbish, culling invasive species, restoring top soil, planting saplings, etc. It was real work. I couldn't believe how small the targeted area was. Less than an acre. Doing restoration, biomediation at scale would give a lot of people a lot of jobs. At this point in my life, I'd definitely do it for minimum wage and health insurance. My neighbor "retired" a few years ago, now does landscaping. He claims he's never been happier, more fit. He certainly looks it.
- carapace 6y agoCheers! There was an article that went by here on HN not long ago that claimed that this is the year that humans and their livestock outweigh all other (wild) biomass. In other words, I think Garden Earth is today, eh? And yeah, I agree with you that it's going to take a lot of work. Done well, regenerative agriculture is profitable, so that's great.
- seltzered_ 6y agoI think the answer I keep getting at is we change our lives substantially and engage local community to collaborate - gradually, through mutual learning. A number of us talk about this and what we're trying to do at individual/community scales at https://earth-regenerators.mn.co https://earth-regenerators.mn.co .
- xyst 6y agoBlue Origin, Virgin Galactic, SpaceX is the billionaire solution to fixing the world's impending doom. While the peasants are fighting over the limited supply of clean water, oil, and food, the billionaires of the world are off trying to colonize another planet. Unfortunately, they are likely to repeat the same patterns as Earth and bring that planet to a complete collapse. Some times I think that humanity is just a disease itself. Despite overwhelming evidence of our detrimental effects to this planet, we continue to plunge all of it's precious resources and while sitting on a pile of ashes. We ponder at the question of "why?"
- giardini 6y agoThe OP said nothing about an "accompanying ecological collapse".