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Agreed, if you think that the BTC price is not driven by /dev/random and that statistics apply, then you should sell at an all time high like now.
by tutfbhuf 6y ago
Agreed, if you think that the BTC price is not driven by /dev/random and that statistics apply, then you should sell at an all time high like now.
- ahelwer 6y agoPfft. Market movements don't follow a Gaussian distribution. Reversion to the mean does not exist in domains governed by power law.
- tutfbhuf 6y agoI think I have you covered by stating, that you have to believe in statistics like mean reversion for financials in order to sell. If you don't believe that, okay, that's fine too.
- ahelwer 6y agoThat isn't statistics, it's nonsense. Returns do not follow a Gaussian distribution, therefore do not exhibit mean reversion behavior. This is true in the price of any widely-traded financial instrument. You can't just say patently untrue things about the world and call it "statistics".
- tutfbhuf 6y agoYou might not accept Wikipedia as a source but anyways: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis > Professors Andrew W. Lo and Archie Craig MacKinlay, professors of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management and the University of Pennsylvania, respectively, have also presented evidence that they believe shows the random walk hypothesis to be wrong. Their book A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, presents a number of tests and studies that reportedly support the view that there are trends in the stock market and that the stock market is somewhat predictable. It's an open question/debate in academia whether the random walk hypothesis is true or false.