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I think this sounds like a fairly reasonable solution to the paradox. Fermi's Paradox always assumed that at least one civilization would attempt to "colonize"
by pharke 6y ago
I think this sounds like a fairly reasonable solution to the paradox. Fermi's Paradox always assumed that at least one civilization would attempt to "colonize" the galaxy as fast as possible but if you think about that logistically it doesn't make much sense. What is the driving motive, cui bono? If we take our own history of colonization as an example, we didn't set out to establish colonies for no reason. We sought out new lands due to a number of reasons, population pressure, lack of opportunity, political oppression, to capitalize on virgin resources such as lumber, gold, and fish. Imagine being an English farmer in 1560, chances are you don't have enough wealth to expand your production even if your neighbours were willing to sell but you would have enough funds if you liquidated your belongings to take a chance on a new world with more land than people. Combine that with the fact that space is big and resources much more plentiful than on a planet alone and it would take a civilization a long time to populate their entire solar system. I don't even think true space faring civilizations would be primarily dependent on planets, once you have enough tonnage in space it would be easier to just build everything in space to begin with rather than trying to drag it out of a gravity well. At that point you have almost infinite real estate since you can just build more land. It wouldn't be a stretch of the imagination to think that a new colony wouldn't be seriously attempted until the current one had formed something akin to a dyson swarm made up of space habitats. The timeline for galactic colonization would have to take this into account. Most of the estimates I've seen assume geometric increase in the number of colonies with the shortest possible dwell time at each star but I think that's an extremely aggressive assumption without any evidence to back it up. I think there are also a large number of confounding variables such as the possibility of civilizational collapse or large scale disaster that may set back colonization efforts.