4 ms·
It is a hypothesis with a small prior, yes. But when considering the data - that the strain has grown faster than all others in the UK at the time - the likeli
by Jabbles 6y ago
It is a hypothesis with a small prior, yes.
But when considering the data - that the strain has grown faster than all others in the UK at the time - the likelihood becomes significant. Not certain, but not worthy of your casual dismissal.
You dismiss their observational evidence as weak, but offer no further analysis. Please do so.
- irq11 6y ago“Hypothesis with a small prior” is a fancy way of saying “speculation”. There are literally dozens of strains on nextstrain that have rapidly grown to be the predominant strain in a region. That alone is not a strong indication of anything other than founder effect.