One of the the mistakes that O'Reilly makes is that he's looking for revolutionary leaps in established technologies. He's underestimating the impact of gradual

One of the the mistakes that O'Reilly makes is that he's looking for revolutionary leaps in established technologies. He's underestimating the impact of gradual, incremental improvements over a long period of time. I think that's the real promise of computer networks and web technology. Its not going to make any one field 90% more efficient. But, it will help us squeeze 5% bits of efficiency from many different fields. Add up enough small gains, and the big gains become unnecessary. This discussion reminds me a bit of the energy debate. Government and corporate leaders are looking for radical new solutions (e.g. biofuels, solar thermal, hydrogen, etc.) and are ignoring incremental improvements in efficiency that have the potential to bring about the same amounts of savings without radical restructuring of energy infrastructure. PS: That's the flaw in looking for the next big thing. It blinds you to all the little things that can add up to have the same impact.