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When realistic distributions of uncertainty are applied to the Drake Equation, the paradox dissolves: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 https://arxiv.org/abs/18

• gus_massa 6y ago
  They don't use realistic distributions (in spite the abstract says that). They assume uniform distributions in the interval [0, x] where x is somewhat like the current best guess. It is well known that the product of variables with an uniform distribution has a result that has not an uniform distribution, but some distribution that has more values closer to 0. So there is no surprise that multiplying almost 10 variables with uniform distribution you get something that almost 0 almost all the time. But it is not realistic to use an uniform distribution. All the variables depend on a lot a subparts, so a realistic distribution must be something that looks like a log normal distribution with a peak near the current best guess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution
  • taktoa 6y ago
    They use log-uniform and log-normal distributions, see page 10.