The headline and article are garbage. The paper (peer review still pending: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2012/2012.07902.pdf https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/p

The headline and article are garbage. The paper (peer review still pending: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2012/2012.07902.pdf https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2012/2012.07902.pdf) does not draw any such conclusions. They identify possible explanations for the Fermi paradox, but it is the article that picked one of those and declared it "likely". > We also concluded that at the current time of the study, most intelligent life in the Galaxy is younger than 0.5 Gyr, with values of probability parameter for self-annihilation between 0-0.01; with a relatively higher value of the annihilation parameter (≥0.1), most intelligent life is younger than 0.01 Gyr. > As we cannot assume a low probability of annihilation, it is possible that intelligent life elsewhere in the Galaxy is still too young to be observed by us. Therefore, our findings can imply that intelligent life may be common in the Galaxy but is still young, supporting the optimistic aspect for the practice of SETI. > Additionally, we found the potential self-annihilation to be highly influential in the quantity of galactic intelligent life, suggesting another possible answer to the Fermi Paradox; if intelligent life is likely to destroy themselves, it is not surprising that there is little or no intelligent life elsewhere. --- Edit: Here is possibly the most immediately digestible result of their simulations. I cannot vouch for how reasonable their model assumptions are, but this is the table of maximum number of planets bearing intelligent life in the Milky Way according to three model parameters: https://i.imgur.com/hpSfiqO.png https://i.imgur.com/hpSfiqO.png λA is the rate of abiogenesis (assuming a Poisson process) per Myr - the two chosen values are apparently minimum and maximum of literature estimates. Tevo is the time from formation of life to it becoming intelligent. Pann is the probability of self (!) annihilation per Myr. (They model annihilation due to nearby supernovae separately). Their model also computes the spatial and temporal distribution of those planets, but for that you will have to read the paper.