I see. Knowing now where you are coming from, I think that there are headwinds against your progression in an elite ($500k/yr +) direction without a PhD, but n

I see. Knowing now where you are coming from, I think that there are headwinds against your progression in an elite ($500k/yr +) direction without a PhD, but no hard barriers. That can be mitigated if you have the mathematical / statistical chops, or if you happen to work at the right place on the right problem. So basically a PhD would be momentum for you to get on the elite track, but there are still plenty of ways to stand out. If you are the guy who designs the research infrastructure, or builds the team, and the group is wildly successful, you can still make it.