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Agree that's the situation in the short term, but there's no avoiding that. We can go on to negotiate and agree our own deals with those countries ourselves in

Agree that's the situation in the short term, but there's no avoiding that. We can go on to negotiate and agree our own deals with those countries ourselves in the long term. They will be different agreements, obviously - while they may be lesser overall they can at least be more targeted to our specific interests rather than a whole bloc, which may yield some advantages for the UK. Again, not trying to say this is necessarily better than staying in, but it does have its own advantages as well as compromises.

simonh 6y ago
It has severe disadvantages right now and for the near future, but might possibly lead to some benefits if we’re lucky eventually if you squint right. You’re not selling me on it.
- breakfastduck 6y ago
  Not trying to, just rationalizing why the deals been set. I think it's actually a pretty fair compromise from both sides - doesn't necessarily mean it's better than being in though!
rndmio 6y ago
Which countries? What major untapped markets are in need of what the UK exports but don't already have it? About 60% of our exports are services, particularly financial and insurance and we just lost passporting rights to the EU on those. The EU is not perfect but we've fucked off out of it without planning or preparing what to do next. I mean the deal that we'll be trading under in 7 days time has only just been agreed and isn't even ratified.
- breakfastduck 6y ago
  Again, it's not that we don't have access to those other markets in the EU, it's that the terms are set by the EU as a bloc. Now, it'll be up to the UK to negotiate the specific terms with those markets, while being able to access free trade with the single market. Absolutely agree it's absurd that the deal comes so late with basically 0 time to really prepare, but negotiations between blocs, countries and even small domestic businesses always go right down to the wire, just a human thing.
  - TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
    None of which answers the question - which significant new markets exist for UK goods and services? Unless you count tax evasion and money laundering - something the UK was doing okay at already - there simply aren't any. There is no promised land here, no sunlit uplands, no glorious future as an independent trading nation. In reality the UK has just pulled the rug out from under its most productive service sector and cut out the heart of its tax base. And it doesn't have the skills or the culture to develop new service markets, because it's thinking like a 19th century imperial power running a 19th century economy, not like an interconnected smaller power with significant unique skills and talents in a mixed 21st century economy. When you sell a plane or a computer or a tractor to a foreign country you don't just sell an item that needs to be shipped. You also sell training, spares, continuing support, consultancy. and business development. These were relatively friction-free when freedom of movement was a thing. Now they're much harder, because they rely on employees visiting customers and possibly staying with them for long periods - which can't be done with paperwork and restrictions. This "deal" makes all of this much harder for EU trade, and does nothing at all to make it easier in Rest of World. And all of this held up for weeks by arguments about fish, which are barely a rounding error in GDP terms.
- djmobley 6y ago
  There’s a long list of major economies that don’t have free trade deals with the EU, such as the United States, China, India and Australia.
  - Kalium 6y ago
    Why would the US sign a free trade deal with the UK, when it wouldn't sign one with the much larger EU? I fully expect my government to insist on conditions favorable towards the much larger and much richer party in UK-US trade relations.
    - dukeyukey 6y ago
      Because before the EU can sign off on a trade agreement, it needs to be unanimously accepted by every member state, which takes an absolute ton of time. The CETA deal with Canada was held up solely by a region of Belgium at one point. It's a lot easier to get a trade deal with the UK, where you're only dealing with one government with a much more specific set of interests. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37749236 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37749236
      - GekkePrutser 6y ago
        They were right imo, ceta was a big mistake. Unfortunately this kind of resistance always caves to internal pressure. Similar to the resistance to software patents by Poland.
    - djmobley 6y ago
      Because a free trade deal between the US and UK would be mutually beneficial. Talks have been ongoing for some time now, and I would expect a deal to materialize in the coming years.
  - CraigJPerry 6y ago
    Free Trade agreement with China sounds like a potentially ruinous idea for British industry? We’ve always just struck trade agreements with these countries until now. E.g. we export petrol and medicines to China and import electrical gizmos. An FTA with the EU and the US (in that order) could make sense though. Australia’s a perfect trading partner in a lot of ways but it’s just too far away in a world that cares about reducing carbon footprints.
spzb 6y ago
Except now we're a small economy and one that's shown itself willing to break international laws we'd only just signed up to. Not something most trading partners are looking for.

simonh 6y ago

It has severe disadvantages right now and for the near future, but might possibly lead to some benefits if we’re lucky eventually if you squint right. You’re not selling me on it.

breakfastduck 6y ago
Not trying to, just rationalizing why the deals been set. I think it's actually a pretty fair compromise from both sides - doesn't necessarily mean it's better than being in though!

rndmio 6y ago

Which countries? What major untapped markets are in need of what the UK exports but don't already have it? About 60% of our exports are services, particularly financial and insurance and we just lost passporting rights to the EU on those. The EU is not perfect but we've fucked off out of it without planning or preparing what to do next. I mean the deal that we'll be trading under in 7 days time has only just been agreed and isn't even ratified.

breakfastduck 6y ago
Again, it's not that we don't have access to those other markets in the EU, it's that the terms are set by the EU as a bloc. Now, it'll be up to the UK to negotiate the specific terms with those markets, while being able to access free trade with the single market. Absolutely agree it's absurd that the deal comes so late with basically 0 time to really prepare, but negotiations between blocs, countries and even small domestic businesses always go right down to the wire, just a human thing.
- TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
  None of which answers the question - which significant new markets exist for UK goods and services? Unless you count tax evasion and money laundering - something the UK was doing okay at already - there simply aren't any. There is no promised land here, no sunlit uplands, no glorious future as an independent trading nation. In reality the UK has just pulled the rug out from under its most productive service sector and cut out the heart of its tax base. And it doesn't have the skills or the culture to develop new service markets, because it's thinking like a 19th century imperial power running a 19th century economy, not like an interconnected smaller power with significant unique skills and talents in a mixed 21st century economy. When you sell a plane or a computer or a tractor to a foreign country you don't just sell an item that needs to be shipped. You also sell training, spares, continuing support, consultancy. and business development. These were relatively friction-free when freedom of movement was a thing. Now they're much harder, because they rely on employees visiting customers and possibly staying with them for long periods - which can't be done with paperwork and restrictions. This "deal" makes all of this much harder for EU trade, and does nothing at all to make it easier in Rest of World. And all of this held up for weeks by arguments about fish, which are barely a rounding error in GDP terms.
djmobley 6y ago
There’s a long list of major economies that don’t have free trade deals with the EU, such as the United States, China, India and Australia.
- Kalium 6y ago
  Why would the US sign a free trade deal with the UK, when it wouldn't sign one with the much larger EU? I fully expect my government to insist on conditions favorable towards the much larger and much richer party in UK-US trade relations.
  - dukeyukey 6y ago
    Because before the EU can sign off on a trade agreement, it needs to be unanimously accepted by every member state, which takes an absolute ton of time. The CETA deal with Canada was held up solely by a region of Belgium at one point. It's a lot easier to get a trade deal with the UK, where you're only dealing with one government with a much more specific set of interests. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37749236 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37749236
    - GekkePrutser 6y ago
      They were right imo, ceta was a big mistake. Unfortunately this kind of resistance always caves to internal pressure. Similar to the resistance to software patents by Poland.
  - djmobley 6y ago
    Because a free trade deal between the US and UK would be mutually beneficial. Talks have been ongoing for some time now, and I would expect a deal to materialize in the coming years.
- CraigJPerry 6y ago
  Free Trade agreement with China sounds like a potentially ruinous idea for British industry? We’ve always just struck trade agreements with these countries until now. E.g. we export petrol and medicines to China and import electrical gizmos. An FTA with the EU and the US (in that order) could make sense though. Australia’s a perfect trading partner in a lot of ways but it’s just too far away in a world that cares about reducing carbon footprints.

spzb 6y ago

Except now we're a small economy and one that's shown itself willing to break international laws we'd only just signed up to. Not something most trading partners are looking for.