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The Brexit referendum was the answer to a long running battle within the Conservative party between Eurosceptics and the rest dating back to the early 1990s. As

The Brexit referendum was the answer to a long running battle within the Conservative party between Eurosceptics and the rest dating back to the early 1990s. As such Brexit may be seen to be a success. It has united the party behind a common policy (those who objected have been kicked out) and healed the division. Even better (for the party) they have created a 'foe' which can be blamed for Britain's ills with political impunity. If Scotland leaves the UK - which looks likely - they will be close to guaranteed a majority in parliament. Their recent election majority has given them the opportunity to ignore, weaken or ignore controls on the executive's behaviour. For all his buffoonish behaviour and administrative incompetence Alex Johnson is a ruthless political operator. I make no comment on the benefits or otherwise for the UK and its people which should be obvious by now.

thinkingemote 6y ago
Re Scotland, I suspect that the EU made some concessions to make them leaving less likely. On the whole the EU doesn't like countries becoming independent (Catalonia, for example) of their parent country. Coherence is key for the EU
- breakfastduck 6y ago
  Really relevant point. EU wants deeper integration, the last thing it needs is a second independent nation with a land border to the UK.
  - lottin 6y ago
    That doesn't make any sense. An independent Scotland would likely join the EU and thus become more integrated with it.
    - breakfastduck 6y ago
      Yeah but it would be really disruptive to the EU. I imagine they just want to get on with usual business now brexit is 'done with'.
      - Rexxar 6y ago
        Why would it be more disruptive that any other country that have integrated the union before ?
        breakfastduck 6y ago
        Because the new country joining has a land border with the UK which wont be legislated for whatsoever in the brexit trade deal.
        rndmio 6y ago
        So? The EU had other land borders with non EU countries. There are 25 road crossings between England and Scotland compared to 300 between NI and ROI and no GFA to sustain.
        breakfastduck 6y ago
        So it creates a lot of admin work for the EU and disruption to their business as usual. No need to be so hostile, just making the point.
        toyg 6y ago
        It doesn't create any new admin work, unless Scotland tries to get some special deal. In which case they might well reuse the Irish framework. It would be a walk in the park and a total propaganda victory for the EU. The only real obstacle was the "meddling in internal state affairs" argument, but that's just gone out of the window now that the UK is a third country. Now Scotland is more like Kosovo or Boznia was - a territory that would be a useful addition to the EU market once it's dislodged from the controlling entity.
        breakfastduck 6y ago
        Scotland would need a special deal though, at least for a reasonable transition period. I actually think Scotland should have its own independence, so I'd be happy to see it. Would be a massive arse ache for everyone involved, though - probably worse than brexit based on how deeply integrated the England and Scotland are.
- sleavey 6y ago
  I completely disagree. The EU remained silent during the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 because they didn't want to be seen to be publicly undermining the UK government, but since relations have soured they've been pretty open to say that Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU and that it already meets the requirements. Not to say that Scotland rejoining the EU would be a massive moral victory for the EU over England.
  - breakfastduck 6y ago
    Disagree with your final point. The last thing the EU wants is disruption - ever. They want clear, stable operations backed by huge bureaucracy. They'll be glad Brexit is over so they can just get on with BAU. The ordeal of an independent Scotland forming and applying to join would be a huge disruption.
    - Someone 6y ago
      The EU may be a bureaucracy, but it isn’t a huge one. Its budget is too small for that. https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/transparency/fact-check_en#howbigistheeubudget https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/transparency/fa...: “At some €148 billion (2019 figure), the EU budget is in fact smaller than the budgets of Austria or Belgium. This was a tiny fraction (2%) of the combined national budgets of all EU countries (€7,524 billion) in 2019.”
      - breakfastduck 6y ago
        The EU bureaucracy is at a higher level, like the Euro Working Group made up of financial ministers from EU countries. There is a LOT of red tape involved in getting stuff done.
  - LoSboccacc 6y ago
    > it already meets the requirement I wonder whether that is actually true, isn't the state budget coming in significant part from the UK? I wonder how would that be stacked against Maastricht treaty parameters
- antr 6y ago
  Your comment is the exact definition of a false premise: the use of an incorrect proposition (Catalonia is or was a country) that forms the basis of an argument (the EU doesn't like countries becoming independent).
dTal 6y ago
Who's Alex Johnson?
- klelatti 6y ago
  Boris is a stage name. Alex is the name he uses when not in his "persona".
  - Smaug123 6y ago
    You could have just called him "Johnson". To use his birth forename seems especially inappropriate when you are explicitly commenting on the behaviour of his political persona, not on his personal life.
    - klelatti 6y ago
      I was making a point that "Boris" is part of an act to make a deeply cynical and ruthless politician seem fun and approachable. I don't think anyone reasonable would think that using someone's birth forename that he personally uses and prefers when not in his 'act' as inappropriate in any way at all.
      - Smaug123 6y ago
        Au contraire, I believe it would be inappropriate to refer to Harry Houdini as "Erik Weisz" except when discussing his personal life, for the same reason.
        klelatti 6y ago
        Alex Johnson uses his "Boris" persona as part of an act. It's a calculating and deliberate effort, not to separate his personal life from politics - which would be reasonable - but to create a more attractive persona to present to the electorate. It's one which is quite different from his real persona. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to resist that effort. No idea what Harry Houdini has to do with this. I don't recall him standing for election as Harry Houdini.
hardlianotion 6y ago
I think events have shown that the debate was not simply within the Conservative party.
- klelatti 6y ago
  I didn't say it was. The referendum was as a result though of Cameron's wish to have his party 'stop banging on about Europe' and his desire to make the party secure against UKIP.
jariel 6y ago
"We have a European bureaucracy totally unaccountable to anybody, powers have gone from national parliaments - they haven't gone to the European Parliament, they've gone to the Commission and to some extent the Council of Ministers. These are quite serious matters." — Jeremy Corbyn (who was a Eurosceptic for most of his life) Please don't politicize too much the modern notion of 'Brexit' as actually being an easy left/right issue, it's much more complicated than that.
oxfordmale 6y ago
This deal will only bring a short term truce in the Conservative party. As the economic reality of Covid starts to bite, certain fractions in the party wil urge for a more generous deal with the EU, especially as a quick trade deal with the USA no longer seems to be on the table. Boris is not likely going to last until the next GE, either by choice or because he will be forced out. When the Tories will finally be relegated to the opposition benches, it is very likely the party will tear itself apart about this too. There is a pro business section in the Tories that do not like where the party is headed, but are so far powerless to anything about it.
- klelatti 6y ago
  The historian David Edgerton has an interesting take on the last part - he says that there is no longer a British national capitalism - that is that most big business in the UK is internationally owned or has an outlook that doesn't see itself as particularly British. Good examples would be motor manufacturing and chemicals (so no ICI but instead we have Ineos). There are exceptions of course but the trend is clear. If you look at the backers of the tories now it's not big business any more (in the sense of the CBI say) but often niche financial services firms - who often loathe the EU. If you follow the money then I can't see the Tories worrying too much about traditional business in the UK.

thinkingemote 6y ago

Re Scotland, I suspect that the EU made some concessions to make them leaving less likely. On the whole the EU doesn't like countries becoming independent (Catalonia, for example) of their parent country. Coherence is key for the EU

breakfastduck 6y ago
Really relevant point. EU wants deeper integration, the last thing it needs is a second independent nation with a land border to the UK.
- lottin 6y ago
  That doesn't make any sense. An independent Scotland would likely join the EU and thus become more integrated with it.
  - breakfastduck 6y ago
    Yeah but it would be really disruptive to the EU. I imagine they just want to get on with usual business now brexit is 'done with'.
    - Rexxar 6y ago
      Why would it be more disruptive that any other country that have integrated the union before ?
      - breakfastduck 6y ago
        Because the new country joining has a land border with the UK which wont be legislated for whatsoever in the brexit trade deal.
        rndmio 6y ago
        So? The EU had other land borders with non EU countries. There are 25 road crossings between England and Scotland compared to 300 between NI and ROI and no GFA to sustain.
        breakfastduck 6y ago
        So it creates a lot of admin work for the EU and disruption to their business as usual. No need to be so hostile, just making the point.
        toyg 6y ago
        It doesn't create any new admin work, unless Scotland tries to get some special deal. In which case they might well reuse the Irish framework. It would be a walk in the park and a total propaganda victory for the EU. The only real obstacle was the "meddling in internal state affairs" argument, but that's just gone out of the window now that the UK is a third country. Now Scotland is more like Kosovo or Boznia was - a territory that would be a useful addition to the EU market once it's dislodged from the controlling entity.
        breakfastduck 6y ago
        Scotland would need a special deal though, at least for a reasonable transition period. I actually think Scotland should have its own independence, so I'd be happy to see it. Would be a massive arse ache for everyone involved, though - probably worse than brexit based on how deeply integrated the England and Scotland are.
sleavey 6y ago
I completely disagree. The EU remained silent during the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 because they didn't want to be seen to be publicly undermining the UK government, but since relations have soured they've been pretty open to say that Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU and that it already meets the requirements. Not to say that Scotland rejoining the EU would be a massive moral victory for the EU over England.
- breakfastduck 6y ago
  Disagree with your final point. The last thing the EU wants is disruption - ever. They want clear, stable operations backed by huge bureaucracy. They'll be glad Brexit is over so they can just get on with BAU. The ordeal of an independent Scotland forming and applying to join would be a huge disruption.
  - Someone 6y ago
    The EU may be a bureaucracy, but it isn’t a huge one. Its budget is too small for that. https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/transparency/fact-check_en#howbigistheeubudget https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/transparency/fa...: “At some €148 billion (2019 figure), the EU budget is in fact smaller than the budgets of Austria or Belgium. This was a tiny fraction (2%) of the combined national budgets of all EU countries (€7,524 billion) in 2019.”
    - breakfastduck 6y ago
      The EU bureaucracy is at a higher level, like the Euro Working Group made up of financial ministers from EU countries. There is a LOT of red tape involved in getting stuff done.
- LoSboccacc 6y ago
  > it already meets the requirement I wonder whether that is actually true, isn't the state budget coming in significant part from the UK? I wonder how would that be stacked against Maastricht treaty parameters
antr 6y ago
Your comment is the exact definition of a false premise: the use of an incorrect proposition (Catalonia is or was a country) that forms the basis of an argument (the EU doesn't like countries becoming independent).

dTal 6y ago

Who's Alex Johnson?

klelatti 6y ago
Boris is a stage name. Alex is the name he uses when not in his "persona".
- Smaug123 6y ago
  You could have just called him "Johnson". To use his birth forename seems especially inappropriate when you are explicitly commenting on the behaviour of his political persona, not on his personal life.
  - klelatti 6y ago
    I was making a point that "Boris" is part of an act to make a deeply cynical and ruthless politician seem fun and approachable. I don't think anyone reasonable would think that using someone's birth forename that he personally uses and prefers when not in his 'act' as inappropriate in any way at all.
    - Smaug123 6y ago
      Au contraire, I believe it would be inappropriate to refer to Harry Houdini as "Erik Weisz" except when discussing his personal life, for the same reason.
      - klelatti 6y ago
        Alex Johnson uses his "Boris" persona as part of an act. It's a calculating and deliberate effort, not to separate his personal life from politics - which would be reasonable - but to create a more attractive persona to present to the electorate. It's one which is quite different from his real persona. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to resist that effort. No idea what Harry Houdini has to do with this. I don't recall him standing for election as Harry Houdini.

hardlianotion 6y ago

I think events have shown that the debate was not simply within the Conservative party.

klelatti 6y ago
I didn't say it was. The referendum was as a result though of Cameron's wish to have his party 'stop banging on about Europe' and his desire to make the party secure against UKIP.

jariel 6y ago

"We have a European bureaucracy totally unaccountable to anybody, powers have gone from national parliaments - they haven't gone to the European Parliament, they've gone to the Commission and to some extent the Council of Ministers. These are quite serious matters." — Jeremy Corbyn (who was a Eurosceptic for most of his life) Please don't politicize too much the modern notion of 'Brexit' as actually being an easy left/right issue, it's much more complicated than that.

oxfordmale 6y ago

This deal will only bring a short term truce in the Conservative party. As the economic reality of Covid starts to bite, certain fractions in the party wil urge for a more generous deal with the EU, especially as a quick trade deal with the USA no longer seems to be on the table. Boris is not likely going to last until the next GE, either by choice or because he will be forced out. When the Tories will finally be relegated to the opposition benches, it is very likely the party will tear itself apart about this too. There is a pro business section in the Tories that do not like where the party is headed, but are so far powerless to anything about it.

klelatti 6y ago
The historian David Edgerton has an interesting take on the last part - he says that there is no longer a British national capitalism - that is that most big business in the UK is internationally owned or has an outlook that doesn't see itself as particularly British. Good examples would be motor manufacturing and chemicals (so no ICI but instead we have Ineos). There are exceptions of course but the trend is clear. If you look at the backers of the tories now it's not big business any more (in the sense of the CBI say) but often niche financial services firms - who often loathe the EU. If you follow the money then I can't see the Tories worrying too much about traditional business in the UK.