3 ms·

Do these variants mean something? The UK has some of the best genomic testing in the world. I'm guessing most countries have their own variants floating around

Do these variants mean something? The UK has some of the best genomic testing in the world. I'm guessing most countries have their own variants floating around with no clue. I just don't buy the gloom and doom this time. Rona mutates relatively slowly, we are very lucky. This article says half the rate of flu https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 And we should remember that flu is much more deadly when nobody has existing immunity. Even when the virus mutates, humans create a broad spectrum of antibodies against different parts of a virus and usually at least some will still bind to variants, but maybe not as well. Once a significant portion of the population is vaccinated COVID may become as or less deadly than flu. This is why the only flu variants scientists freak out about are zoonotic strains. They're different enough that existing antibodies don't work. Zoonosis is unlikely to produce more coronavirus pandemic strains like flu because flu infects our livestock and birds, and these SARS-like coronaviruses seems to only exist in bats. Humans have very little interaction with bats. I find it likely that COVID vaccine will become a one-and-done vaccine given to children, given its low zoonotic hybridization potential and slowish mutation rate.

gizmo686 6y ago
SARS-CoV-1 spread to humans in 2003 MERS-CoV spread to humans in 2012 SARS-Cov-2 spread to humans in 2019 Coronavirus making the jump from bats (through intermediate species) to humans may not be as common as the flu making such a jump; but it is not exactly uncommon.
- Jon_Lowtek 6y ago
  The species that includes both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is part of the betacoronavirus genus which also includes MERS-CoV and HCoV-HKU1 as well as HCoV-OC43, which are different species. They are all part of the coronaviridae family which also includes CoV-229E and HCoV-NL63. Those are the seven we know about that infect humans. Coronaviridae are present in mammals, amphibians and birds, using techniques for protection, infection and replication that work among these, so jumps between them are typical, have happened multiple times and will happen again. For example HCoV-OC43 (humans), BCoV (cows), PHEV (pigs) and CRCoV-2 (dogs) are closely related and likely diverged in the late 19th century, around a time of a major pandemic. Many details of who infected who will probably never be known, because our genetic data from the late 19th century is ... let's say "lacking a few details". Even today data is sparse, to be honest i am surprised we have the technology to gene sequence virae at all, these things are small. Note that the "respiratory syndrome" naming of the species may align well with pictures of intubated intensive care patients and the call to wear masks, but can overshadow relevant details like the vulnerability of the gastrointestinal tract, among other organs, to coronaviridae infection. So a word of warning: be careful when handling bullshit and for fucks sake don't eat undercooked animals.
Jon_Lowtek 6y ago
> humans create a broad spectrum of antibodies against different parts of a virus and usually at least some will still bind to variants One of the big problems with our immune system is that a reaction can target markers shared with other less hostile things. Example: part of the spike protein reacts with TMPRSS2 and ACE2 on the cell membrane to smuggle the virus RNA through it. It's like a key and a door and this type of door is not only present in the pneumocytes of the respiratory system, but also in the gastrointestinal and endocrine systems, among many others. If the immune system attacks things that use this cell-membrane-access-key, the result can be a catastrophic auto-immune response leading to rather nasty long term problems and even death. From that it follows that creating a good mRNA vaccine means to identify parts for the immune system to target that are very common in virus strains, yet are also clearly distinct from those present in a healthy human. The whole mRNA tech is a major step forward and relies on selecting a piece of the spike protein unique to the virus. The old "make virus dead and consume it" approach seems primitive in comparison. However while a more specialized vaccine significantly reduces the risk of bad side effects, it is also means new variants, especially those that stick around for month, should be carefully analyzed. It is far too early to jump to any conclusion about this particular one.

gizmo686 6y ago

SARS-CoV-1 spread to humans in 2003 MERS-CoV spread to humans in 2012 SARS-Cov-2 spread to humans in 2019 Coronavirus making the jump from bats (through intermediate species) to humans may not be as common as the flu making such a jump; but it is not exactly uncommon.

Jon_Lowtek 6y ago
The species that includes both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is part of the betacoronavirus genus which also includes MERS-CoV and HCoV-HKU1 as well as HCoV-OC43, which are different species. They are all part of the coronaviridae family which also includes CoV-229E and HCoV-NL63. Those are the seven we know about that infect humans. Coronaviridae are present in mammals, amphibians and birds, using techniques for protection, infection and replication that work among these, so jumps between them are typical, have happened multiple times and will happen again. For example HCoV-OC43 (humans), BCoV (cows), PHEV (pigs) and CRCoV-2 (dogs) are closely related and likely diverged in the late 19th century, around a time of a major pandemic. Many details of who infected who will probably never be known, because our genetic data from the late 19th century is ... let's say "lacking a few details". Even today data is sparse, to be honest i am surprised we have the technology to gene sequence virae at all, these things are small. Note that the "respiratory syndrome" naming of the species may align well with pictures of intubated intensive care patients and the call to wear masks, but can overshadow relevant details like the vulnerability of the gastrointestinal tract, among other organs, to coronaviridae infection. So a word of warning: be careful when handling bullshit and for fucks sake don't eat undercooked animals.

Jon_Lowtek 6y ago

> humans create a broad spectrum of antibodies against different parts of a virus and usually at least some will still bind to variants One of the big problems with our immune system is that a reaction can target markers shared with other less hostile things. Example: part of the spike protein reacts with TMPRSS2 and ACE2 on the cell membrane to smuggle the virus RNA through it. It's like a key and a door and this type of door is not only present in the pneumocytes of the respiratory system, but also in the gastrointestinal and endocrine systems, among many others. If the immune system attacks things that use this cell-membrane-access-key, the result can be a catastrophic auto-immune response leading to rather nasty long term problems and even death. From that it follows that creating a good mRNA vaccine means to identify parts for the immune system to target that are very common in virus strains, yet are also clearly distinct from those present in a healthy human. The whole mRNA tech is a major step forward and relies on selecting a piece of the spike protein unique to the virus. The old "make virus dead and consume it" approach seems primitive in comparison. However while a more specialized vaccine significantly reduces the risk of bad side effects, it is also means new variants, especially those that stick around for month, should be carefully analyzed. It is far too early to jump to any conclusion about this particular one.