To clarify, I'm not saying your assumptions are necessarily wrong, or that you shouldn't try to test them and see what happens. I'm just proposing another poss

To clarify, I'm not saying your assumptions are necessarily wrong, or that you shouldn't try to test them and see what happens. I'm just proposing another possibility is that everyone playing on both sides is a "punter" having fun (or deceiving themselves). In any case, that everyone is losing long-term. With 5% vig I'd guess that's the most likely possibility.