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On Betfair the house is you. You determine the odds. Let's assume that cards are dealt randomly. If I know the exact probabilities of every outcome I bet on, an

On Betfair the house is you. You determine the odds. Let's assume that cards are dealt randomly. If I know the exact probabilities of every outcome I bet on, and I always bet with odds which have a margin over those probabilities, then I win in the long run.

biztos 6y ago
Forgive my ignorance, but: why would anyone bet against you?
- asdf3331 6y ago
  for fun
- jpcooper 6y ago
  Consider the case of betting with a traditional bookmaker. The bookmaker lays (bets against) an outcome. You back (bet for) the outcome. Each party is betting against the other.
- albedoa 6y ago
  I'm a long-time poker player and recent political bettor. Gamblers routinely overestimate their edge or don't care whether they win. Often it's a mix of both. There are still many many many people who are willing to bet on the results of the US presidential election: https://www.thedailybeast.com/gamblers-bet-big-on-trump-and-now-they-now-claim-fraud https://www.thedailybeast.com/gamblers-bet-big-on-trump-and-...
  - jpcooper 6y ago
    What do you base your political bets on?
    - albedoa 6y ago
      For one-offs, picking the favorite is good enough for most players. Thy are just seeking entertainment and maybe to win a little money. For instance, in a race between two candidates priced at $0.70 and $0.30 (ranging from $0.01 to $0.99 before resolution), many players are happy to pick the favorite indicated by the market. Of course, if those prices are accurate, then they will lose money in the long-run after fees. For players who are betting more frequently and over a longer term, it's like any other speculation: You might assess the $0.30 underdog to have a 40% chance of winning. She is still the underdog, but you profit over the long run by buying her at her too-low price. Those players are scooping that value wherever they can find it. For major electoral events that involve a populist with a large, loyal, and misinformed fanbase, the value pretty much finds you. Both of the described groups are making lots of money because the markets are wildly mispriced.
      - jpcooper 6y ago
        I wonder what you base your sentiment on. I can't imagine there's much juice left in Twitter sentiment analysis.
        albedoa 6y ago
        You don’t have to be smarter than Twitter, just smarter than the crowd, who aren’t applying Twitter analysis. Take the above article as an extreme but not exceptional case: The correct price for Biden winning the election was $0.99 for weeks before the market was closed, but he was trading much lower over that time. We were betting on the results of an event that already happened. No Twitter analysis necessary.
        jpcooper 6y ago
        I need to find more of those.
- coldtea 6y ago
  The don't. They place bets. If they place bets on the opposite odds that you do on the same bet, then they play against you (and you're competing for that).
- andrepd 6y ago
  A recent example. Even after it became apparent that Biden won the election you could still sell 10:1 bets on Trump to win, on betfair, to suckers which refused to accept reality or vastly overestimated the probability for Trump to sabotage the elections and/or stage a coup. It's basically free money.

biztos 6y ago

Forgive my ignorance, but: why would anyone bet against you?

asdf3331 6y ago
for fun
jpcooper 6y ago
Consider the case of betting with a traditional bookmaker. The bookmaker lays (bets against) an outcome. You back (bet for) the outcome. Each party is betting against the other.
albedoa 6y ago
I'm a long-time poker player and recent political bettor. Gamblers routinely overestimate their edge or don't care whether they win. Often it's a mix of both. There are still many many many people who are willing to bet on the results of the US presidential election: https://www.thedailybeast.com/gamblers-bet-big-on-trump-and-now-they-now-claim-fraud https://www.thedailybeast.com/gamblers-bet-big-on-trump-and-...
- jpcooper 6y ago
  What do you base your political bets on?
  - albedoa 6y ago
    For one-offs, picking the favorite is good enough for most players. Thy are just seeking entertainment and maybe to win a little money. For instance, in a race between two candidates priced at $0.70 and $0.30 (ranging from $0.01 to $0.99 before resolution), many players are happy to pick the favorite indicated by the market. Of course, if those prices are accurate, then they will lose money in the long-run after fees. For players who are betting more frequently and over a longer term, it's like any other speculation: You might assess the $0.30 underdog to have a 40% chance of winning. She is still the underdog, but you profit over the long run by buying her at her too-low price. Those players are scooping that value wherever they can find it. For major electoral events that involve a populist with a large, loyal, and misinformed fanbase, the value pretty much finds you. Both of the described groups are making lots of money because the markets are wildly mispriced.
    - jpcooper 6y ago
      I wonder what you base your sentiment on. I can't imagine there's much juice left in Twitter sentiment analysis.
      - albedoa 6y ago
        You don’t have to be smarter than Twitter, just smarter than the crowd, who aren’t applying Twitter analysis. Take the above article as an extreme but not exceptional case: The correct price for Biden winning the election was $0.99 for weeks before the market was closed, but he was trading much lower over that time. We were betting on the results of an event that already happened. No Twitter analysis necessary.
        jpcooper 6y ago
        I need to find more of those.
coldtea 6y ago
The don't. They place bets. If they place bets on the opposite odds that you do on the same bet, then they play against you (and you're competing for that).
andrepd 6y ago
A recent example. Even after it became apparent that Biden won the election you could still sell 10:1 bets on Trump to win, on betfair, to suckers which refused to accept reality or vastly overestimated the probability for Trump to sabotage the elections and/or stage a coup. It's basically free money.