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Yes, you're right. It is about risk. There are hundreds of things that could go wrong on Tesla's path to converting the world to Autonomous EV transportation. N

Yes, you're right. It is about risk. There are hundreds of things that could go wrong on Tesla's path to converting the world to Autonomous EV transportation. No one knows which if any of those things will go wrong over the next 5-10 years. I'm not a day trader, so for me, saying that Tesla is overvalued today is like saying that people who buy flood insurance are stupid because there is no rain the 10 day forecast. If TSLA was $100k/share today then yes it would be overvalued. Just like if someone was paying $100k/month for flood insurance on a 200k house in the desert that would be stupid. For my analysis Tesla has a decent chance at building a 25k profitable EV and 5-6 other models at scale and succeeding in Autonomy within 5 years. So I'm comfortable buying today at anything below $1200.

mewpmewp2 6y ago
Funny you mention insurance. One way to think about buying tech stocks right now is to insure yourself against new "industrial revolution" type of thing, but more like "tech/ai revolution". I feel like I need to have at least something allocated in all of the tech companies that might be part of that revolution. Eventually unless governments are able to stop it, it seems like larger companies might grow even larger compared to others and it will be a very complex challenge to stop that monopolization. If Tesla success will be sure to happen it will be too late by then. It seems like FOMO and it is, but I think it is very reasonable. I don't invest in Tesla because I hope to double or triple short term, I just want to be part of what might very reasonably happen.