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The theory how to scale up car production is well known, and the established players like Toyota are already masters at that (lean and just-in-time manufacturin
by vesinisa 6y ago
The theory how to scale up car production is well known, and the established players like Toyota are already masters at that (lean and just-in-time manufacturing were after all invented at Toyota). It's Tesla who's having issues with scaling up production[1].
We're in the middle of a turning point in the car industry. I'd wager in 2-3 years sales of electric cars will already be a sizeable chunk of the market. Within about a decade electric personal cars will take over sales of petrol cars. But nothing suggests that VW, Toyota etc. would not be any less apt at producing electric cars than Tesla. On the contrary, the established players have a MASSIVELY superior pre-existing production capacity and expertise.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-batteryday-productivity/tesla-warns-on-challenges-of-scaling-up-production-idUSKCN26D1BN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-batteryday-producti...
- teruakohatu 6y ago> and they have MASSIVELY superior pre-existing production capacity and expertise. They need batteries for those cars. Are they also investing in battery production?
- vesinisa 6y agoYes, they are. Volkswagen for example is ramping up its own battery production capacity and opening factories: https://electrek.co/2019/09/23/volkswagen-battery-cell-production-electric-cars-pilot-line/ https://electrek.co/2019/09/23/volkswagen-battery-cell-produ...
- ekianjo 6y agoBatteries are commodities these days. Not competitive advantages.
- ozborn 6y agoAgree for 12V car batteries, AA batteries, etc... but not for EV batteries. The form has not standardized, they evolve quickly, they can not be purchased in the volume required by all producers, and a better battery and matching charging infrastructure is a major competitive differentiating factor among EV manufacturers.
- lock-free 6y agoThe hard part of electric vehicle has never been assembly - its batteries and charging. Toyota and VW can ramp up as much as they want, but they'll probably have to buy the batteries from Tesla. Tesla is not without its problems, but I think it's a bit naive to focus on the solved problems as limiting their potential. It's also the wrong thing to look at - Tesla is concerned about dictating the future of transportation and energy, selling cars is a means to an end.
- gostsamo 6y agoWhat Toyota and VW have is politics and that's why they are still trailing behind Tesla. Big parts of their engineers and managers have expertise and background in internal combustion engines and this means much more coupling with this technology. A turnaround in such businesses is much harder than in software, so I expect that only those of the traditional manufacturers who can rebuild their strategies and sell it to their middle management to survive the next decade or two.
- vesinisa 6y agoWhy would Toyota and VW need to use Tesla batteries? Patents after all expire and are circumventable. And AFAIK Tesla does not hold too much original IP on battery tech to start with.