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The atmosphere on Earth makes the temperatures a lot higher on re-entry. For rockets without the heat shielding, you need to do a re-entry burn just to slow dow

The atmosphere on Earth makes the temperatures a lot higher on re-entry. For rockets without the heat shielding, you need to do a re-entry burn just to slow down. Interestingly enough, unlike the Falcon 9, Rocket Lab's Electron uses carbon fiber wihch doesn't actually need a heat shield. The atmosphere can help slow the vehicle down a lot, but the Earth's higher gravity has a big impact on the rocket equation. I think China will master Falcon 9 level re-usability in the late-2020s. Given SpaceX's development speed so far, by that point the launch market will have moved on Starship super-heavy lift vehicles with full re-usability of both stages. China is blocked from competing in the international launch vehicle market (due to concerns over Chinese military espionage and tech transfer) so the benefit of having a commercially competitive rocket is not actually there. Unlike SpaceX, China can't tap into the demand for 100 launches per year on the global market. Perhaps we'll see a People Liberation Army version of Starlink being launched in 2030, but the pocketbook of the government of China isn't infinite. They are already starting to struggle to provide the aged pension to their people -- culminating in the current push to move the women's retirement age back 10+ years. I can't see China developing a competitive re-usable launcher for anything other than military payloads. Especially given a United States that will sanction any company linked to the Chinese military (just like they sanctioned SMIC when it appeared to be catching up while being a People's Liberation Army supplier).

blackrock 6y ago
Yeah, it doesn’t seem like China is in any rush to do reusability. This is more of a fun hobby now for them. It seems they are more interested in throw-weight, in pursuing the Long March 9. It’s safer to establish the capability first, then, to work on reusability afterwards. And they’re locked out of the western commercial launch market, so, that’s irrelevant to them. So they’ll just have to stick with domestic demand. The next interesting play, is if they go forward with space based solar power. In which, they will need the Long March 9, for its excellent Saturn V level throw-weight.

blackrock 6y ago

Yeah, it doesn’t seem like China is in any rush to do reusability. This is more of a fun hobby now for them. It seems they are more interested in throw-weight, in pursuing the Long March 9. It’s safer to establish the capability first, then, to work on reusability afterwards. And they’re locked out of the western commercial launch market, so, that’s irrelevant to them. So they’ll just have to stick with domestic demand. The next interesting play, is if they go forward with space based solar power. In which, they will need the Long March 9, for its excellent Saturn V level throw-weight.