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Any bets on them sticking the landing next year? It looks like they got the landing legs prototyped and tested. And they’re able to stick the landing on the m

Any bets on them sticking the landing next year? It looks like they got the landing legs prototyped and tested. And they’re able to stick the landing on the moon, 3 times now. The moon engine needs to operate in a vacuum. And its landing craft can robotically land itself, after hovering, looking for a suitable landing site, and then softly sticking the landing. The question is if it’s harder to land on earth, where you must deal with the atmosphere, versus on the moon, where there is no atmosphere. My guess is that they’ll stick the landing. Or at least, get really close to success on the first shot.

someperson 6y ago
The atmosphere on Earth makes the temperatures a lot higher on re-entry. For rockets without the heat shielding, you need to do a re-entry burn just to slow down. Interestingly enough, unlike the Falcon 9, Rocket Lab's Electron uses carbon fiber wihch doesn't actually need a heat shield. The atmosphere can help slow the vehicle down a lot, but the Earth's higher gravity has a big impact on the rocket equation. I think China will master Falcon 9 level re-usability in the late-2020s. Given SpaceX's development speed so far, by that point the launch market will have moved on Starship super-heavy lift vehicles with full re-usability of both stages. China is blocked from competing in the international launch vehicle market (due to concerns over Chinese military espionage and tech transfer) so the benefit of having a commercially competitive rocket is not actually there. Unlike SpaceX, China can't tap into the demand for 100 launches per year on the global market. Perhaps we'll see a People Liberation Army version of Starlink being launched in 2030, but the pocketbook of the government of China isn't infinite. They are already starting to struggle to provide the aged pension to their people -- culminating in the current push to move the women's retirement age back 10+ years. I can't see China developing a competitive re-usable launcher for anything other than military payloads. Especially given a United States that will sanction any company linked to the Chinese military (just like they sanctioned SMIC when it appeared to be catching up while being a People's Liberation Army supplier).
- blackrock 6y ago
  Yeah, it doesn’t seem like China is in any rush to do reusability. This is more of a fun hobby now for them. It seems they are more interested in throw-weight, in pursuing the Long March 9. It’s safer to establish the capability first, then, to work on reusability afterwards. And they’re locked out of the western commercial launch market, so, that’s irrelevant to them. So they’ll just have to stick with domestic demand. The next interesting play, is if they go forward with space based solar power. In which, they will need the Long March 9, for its excellent Saturn V level throw-weight.
billfruit 6y ago
Does the Space-X boosters land autonomously? What sort of sensors does it use for landing on the selected spot, some kind of image processing?
valuearb 6y ago
They are at least three years away from attempting a landing. And flying and landing a hypersonic booster OIG earths atmosphere is far different than landing a small lander in a vacuum.

someperson 6y ago

The atmosphere on Earth makes the temperatures a lot higher on re-entry. For rockets without the heat shielding, you need to do a re-entry burn just to slow down. Interestingly enough, unlike the Falcon 9, Rocket Lab's Electron uses carbon fiber wihch doesn't actually need a heat shield. The atmosphere can help slow the vehicle down a lot, but the Earth's higher gravity has a big impact on the rocket equation. I think China will master Falcon 9 level re-usability in the late-2020s. Given SpaceX's development speed so far, by that point the launch market will have moved on Starship super-heavy lift vehicles with full re-usability of both stages. China is blocked from competing in the international launch vehicle market (due to concerns over Chinese military espionage and tech transfer) so the benefit of having a commercially competitive rocket is not actually there. Unlike SpaceX, China can't tap into the demand for 100 launches per year on the global market. Perhaps we'll see a People Liberation Army version of Starlink being launched in 2030, but the pocketbook of the government of China isn't infinite. They are already starting to struggle to provide the aged pension to their people -- culminating in the current push to move the women's retirement age back 10+ years. I can't see China developing a competitive re-usable launcher for anything other than military payloads. Especially given a United States that will sanction any company linked to the Chinese military (just like they sanctioned SMIC when it appeared to be catching up while being a People's Liberation Army supplier).

blackrock 6y ago
Yeah, it doesn’t seem like China is in any rush to do reusability. This is more of a fun hobby now for them. It seems they are more interested in throw-weight, in pursuing the Long March 9. It’s safer to establish the capability first, then, to work on reusability afterwards. And they’re locked out of the western commercial launch market, so, that’s irrelevant to them. So they’ll just have to stick with domestic demand. The next interesting play, is if they go forward with space based solar power. In which, they will need the Long March 9, for its excellent Saturn V level throw-weight.

billfruit 6y ago

Does the Space-X boosters land autonomously? What sort of sensors does it use for landing on the selected spot, some kind of image processing?

valuearb 6y ago

They are at least three years away from attempting a landing. And flying and landing a hypersonic booster OIG earths atmosphere is far different than landing a small lander in a vacuum.