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I think the problem with this argument is that our observations are pre-selected before see them. This biases our predictions towards spectacular success/failur
by lazyjeff 15y ago
I think the problem with this argument is that our observations are pre-selected before see them. This biases our predictions towards spectacular success/failure stories and exaggerated anecdotes. What would have happened if you were Facebook and thought, "we know social networking startups end in failure, and so we should try something else".
- bricestacey 15y agoI'm not sure Facebook thought that in 2004. Besides, it's all relative. Some people reading this will think, "Gym? Bring it on!!" Obviously, a successful path would somehow diverge from previous failures. Also, I think the article is more about addiction to HN and not so much startup advice.