3 ms·

We have seen this movie before

• faitswulff 15y ago
  The formatting choices were jarring, though I wholeheartedly agree with the large bolded words in the last paragraph.
  • bradpineau 15y ago
    Good stuff. Agree as well.
    • whatwhatwhat 15y ago
      >I will pay you $10 for everyday I don't come to the gym and get on that bike for at least 25 minutes. Not to nitpick, but I think that "dont" shouldnt be in that sentence? The way it's worded incentivizes the trainer to make sure I don't show up. Without the "dont" it sort of encourages me to not show up because it costs an extra $10, but at the same time the other guy is going to be encouraged to get me to show up. Or maybe the analogy just doesn't work. I get your point entirely though. I liked the article.
      • JohnnyBrown 15y ago
        You are correct that the trainer is incentivized such that he would prefer I not show up. But /I/ am incentivized /to/ show up.
• lazyjeff 15y ago
  I think the problem with this argument is that our observations are pre-selected before see them. This biases our predictions towards spectacular success/failure stories and exaggerated anecdotes. What would have happened if you were Facebook and thought, "we know social networking startups end in failure, and so we should try something else".
  • bricestacey 15y ago
    I'm not sure Facebook thought that in 2004. Besides, it's all relative. Some people reading this will think, "Gym? Bring it on!!" Obviously, a successful path would somehow diverge from previous failures. Also, I think the article is more about addiction to HN and not so much startup advice.