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> One dangerous example being the distortion of the truth about COVID-19 spread in the run up to the Olympics. I expect the same over the next few months. Can

> One dangerous example being the distortion of the truth about COVID-19 spread in the run up to the Olympics. I expect the same over the next few months. Can you give an example? I read a lot of speculation on the internet that there was some conspiracy by the Japanese government to conceal the extent of covid infections prior to the Olympics, but have yet to see any concrete evidence. In fact, I would give Japan pretty high marks for their handling of pandemic thus far. They rank 140 in world currently in deaths per 1M population [1] (meaning 139 countries have suffered more deaths), despite taking a fairly soft stance toward lock downs. And in my opinion the government has done a good job delivering clear and consistent messaging about the number of new infections, what actions they are taking to prevent the spread of the virus, what types of things residents should avoid doing, etc. [2] [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ [2] NHK Covid page (in Japanese, but translates reasonably well in Chrome) https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/

presentation 6y ago
Living here I find their messaging contradictory and confusing. You should social distance—but we'll give you discounts on eating out, the more people the bigger the discount (Go To Eat Campaign)! But actually you should stay home... but hey if you travel around the country we'll give you steep discounts on your hotels and local expenses (Go To Travel Campaign)!! Coupled with the articles earlier on in the pandemic talking about doctors being unable to give their patients COVID tests (which may have had more to do with limited supplies or the lack of treatment capability, to be fair) [1][2][3]; as well as the pretty high cost of getting a negative PCR test result here (I got a test, tested positive (minor case), and it was covered by national insurance for around $15; but my friends who tested negative after coming in contact with me, paid about $300 each for their tests) leads me to think the published numbers are probably pretty inaccurate. I'm not really complaining as society seems to be functioning fine, but if the numbers were worse I would be. [1] http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13188937 http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13188937 [2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/07/national/testing-corpses-coronavirus/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/07/national/testin... [3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-testing/japan-uses-just-a-fraction-of-its-coronavirus-testing-capacity-idUSKBN2150ZR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-...
- freetime2 6y ago
  If Japan were not doing enough testing, you would expect to see a high positivity rate on PCR tests. But positivity rates have been relatively low. Well under 10% since April, and even under 5% for much of the year [1]. A 5% positivity rate or lower is the WHO’s recommendation for when countries can begin to loosen restrictions [2]. Currently the rate is above 5% in Japan which is a concern. We are starting to see the government take measures to curb the spread, by suspending “Go To Travel” subsidies over New Years for example. And they have said they will do more if necessary. And fortunately growth seems to at least have leveled off a bit in recent weeks. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=~JPN&region=Asia https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoot... [2] https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-und...
brigandish 6y ago
I can[1], it reached the HN frontpage a while ago. As to concrete evidence, I obviously don't have it but it might be hard to acquire: > The ministry has admitted tampering with paperwork to make it tally with testimony given in parliament, and on Wednesday admitted orders were given to destroy documents for the same reason, according to a document distributed to reporters by opposition lawmaker Osaka. And it's not as if I would believe the figures anyway, from [3]: > According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, there were some 3,700 “unaccompanied deaths” in Japan in 2013. However, other experts estimate the number is nearer 30,000 a year. Why is there such a disparity between the figures academics are claiming which would embarass the government and those that the government are claiming? How are we supposed to measure the impact of COVID-19 with such low testing and no idea what the expected death tally to have been? It's not as if things like that are isolated cases of government numbers going awry. I ask myself, would the Japan government go ahead with something even if it endangered large numbers of people but brought money or prestige? The answer appears to be yes[4]. > They based their claim on a 2002 report in which government experts estimated there was a one in five chance of a magnitude-8 earthquake occurring and triggering a powerful tsunami within the next 30 years. > At the time of the disaster, Japan’s nuclear regulator was severely criticised for its collusive ties with the nuclear industry, resulting in the formation of a new watchdog that has imposed stricter criteria for the restart of nuclear reactors that were shut down in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. So, in the face of all that (and more) I'm of the opinion that they were doing their best not to scupper the Olympics. I'm willing to be proven wrong but I'm not going to wait for absolute proof to fall in my lap, I'm not sentencing anyone to prison. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22728674 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22728674 [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/japan-ministry-releases-scandal-papers-it-said-were-destroyed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/japan-min... [3] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-aging-japan-thousands-die-alone-and-unnoticed-every-year-their-bodies-often-go-unnoticed-for-weeks.html https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-agi... [4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/japanese-government-liable-negligence-fukushima-daiichi-nuclear-disaster https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/japanese-gover... Edit: missed off a reference number.
- freetime2 6y ago

presentation 6y ago

Living here I find their messaging contradictory and confusing. You should social distance—but we'll give you discounts on eating out, the more people the bigger the discount (Go To Eat Campaign)! But actually you should stay home... but hey if you travel around the country we'll give you steep discounts on your hotels and local expenses (Go To Travel Campaign)!! Coupled with the articles earlier on in the pandemic talking about doctors being unable to give their patients COVID tests (which may have had more to do with limited supplies or the lack of treatment capability, to be fair) [1][2][3]; as well as the pretty high cost of getting a negative PCR test result here (I got a test, tested positive (minor case), and it was covered by national insurance for around $15; but my friends who tested negative after coming in contact with me, paid about $300 each for their tests) leads me to think the published numbers are probably pretty inaccurate. I'm not really complaining as society seems to be functioning fine, but if the numbers were worse I would be. [1] http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13188937 http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13188937 [2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/07/national/testing-corpses-coronavirus/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/07/national/testin... [3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-testing/japan-uses-just-a-fraction-of-its-coronavirus-testing-capacity-idUSKBN2150ZR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-...

freetime2 6y ago
If Japan were not doing enough testing, you would expect to see a high positivity rate on PCR tests. But positivity rates have been relatively low. Well under 10% since April, and even under 5% for much of the year [1]. A 5% positivity rate or lower is the WHO’s recommendation for when countries can begin to loosen restrictions [2]. Currently the rate is above 5% in Japan which is a concern. We are starting to see the government take measures to curb the spread, by suspending “Go To Travel” subsidies over New Years for example. And they have said they will do more if necessary. And fortunately growth seems to at least have leveled off a bit in recent weeks. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=~JPN&region=Asia https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoot... [2] https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-und...

brigandish 6y ago

I can[1], it reached the HN frontpage a while ago. As to concrete evidence, I obviously don't have it but it might be hard to acquire: > The ministry has admitted tampering with paperwork to make it tally with testimony given in parliament, and on Wednesday admitted orders were given to destroy documents for the same reason, according to a document distributed to reporters by opposition lawmaker Osaka. And it's not as if I would believe the figures anyway, from [3]: > According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, there were some 3,700 “unaccompanied deaths” in Japan in 2013. However, other experts estimate the number is nearer 30,000 a year. Why is there such a disparity between the figures academics are claiming which would embarass the government and those that the government are claiming? How are we supposed to measure the impact of COVID-19 with such low testing and no idea what the expected death tally to have been? It's not as if things like that are isolated cases of government numbers going awry. I ask myself, would the Japan government go ahead with something even if it endangered large numbers of people but brought money or prestige? The answer appears to be yes[4]. > They based their claim on a 2002 report in which government experts estimated there was a one in five chance of a magnitude-8 earthquake occurring and triggering a powerful tsunami within the next 30 years. > At the time of the disaster, Japan’s nuclear regulator was severely criticised for its collusive ties with the nuclear industry, resulting in the formation of a new watchdog that has imposed stricter criteria for the restart of nuclear reactors that were shut down in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. So, in the face of all that (and more) I'm of the opinion that they were doing their best not to scupper the Olympics. I'm willing to be proven wrong but I'm not going to wait for absolute proof to fall in my lap, I'm not sentencing anyone to prison. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22728674 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22728674 [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/japan-ministry-releases-scandal-papers-it-said-were-destroyed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/japan-min... [3] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-aging-japan-thousands-die-alone-and-unnoticed-every-year-their-bodies-often-go-unnoticed-for-weeks.html https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-agi... [4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/japanese-government-liable-negligence-fukushima-daiichi-nuclear-disaster https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/japanese-gover... Edit: missed off a reference number.

freetime2 6y ago