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One of the "interesting" things about the new strain is that generally there is genetic drift happening all the time with the virus and you can trace it interna
by codeulike 6y ago
One of the "interesting" things about the new strain is that generally there is genetic drift happening all the time with the virus and you can trace it internationally into a sort of 'family tree'. This can be used to work out how it is spreading geographically, its like a fingerprint that changes as it spreads.
e.g. the tree diagrams in this tweet: https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1340359989395861506 https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1340359989395861506
The new strain is notable because it has no obvious ancestors - it has about 14 or so changes that can't be traced backwards in the tree. This points to it arising within one immunocompromised individual.
See https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisati...
"The accrual of 14 lineage-specific amino acid replacements prior to its detection is, to date, unprecedented in the global virus genomic data for the COVID-19 pandemic."
"These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections."
In all of this, its worth remembering we've never tracked an epidemic in this much detail before, so perhaps this sort of thing is just par for the course.
- bioinformatics 6y agoGenetic drift that fixates 14 new mutations, including deletions, in the most negative selected gene in this virus is an abomination, almost statistically impossible, very very close to 0. Even if the incubation and infection time inside this one individual was enough for 1,000,000 generations there's no way for something like that to happen. "The accrual of 14 lineage-specific amino acid replacements prior to its detection is, to date, unprecedented in the global virus genomic data for the COVID-19 pandemic." No, this unprecedented on any living and non-living thing that we know.[1] "In all of this, its worth remembering we've never tracked an epidemic in this much detail before, so perhaps this sort of thing is just par for the course." We tracked very well the flu during its high season, and influenza genomes are used constant to monitor mutations and other aspects of viral evolution, population genetics and phylogeny. [1] https://www.pnas.org/content/96/24/13910 https://www.pnas.org/content/96/24/13910
- yread 6y agoImpossible is a strong word in biology. Evolution goes faster when there are selective pressures - monoclonal antibodies treatment and weak immune system could plausibly create such pressure
- 1stcity3rdcoast 6y agoAre you saying that the mutation velocity is so unbelievable that it's clearly wrong? Or that it's so unprecedented that we should be worried?
- raverbashing 6y agoEvolution is not a random search. Hence why GA/GP is a thing in computing Especially if it all happened inside one person, negative selection of a gene means this person kept shedding until the changes made it to other people