You're right that Putin has had people murdered in far more conspicuous fashion before, and there's now the big risk of Magnitsky sanctions. It's hard to say w

You're right that Putin has had people murdered in far more conspicuous fashion before, and there's now the big risk of Magnitsky sanctions. It's hard to say whether the blowback and sanctions from an assassination would be worse from an 'unfortunate accident' or someone dying suddenly and inexplicably in a manner very similar to a nerve agent that Russia exclusively uses. It seems like for them to get away with the Novichok poisoning they should've chosen to assassinate Navalny locally so they're be little chance of getting the victim to a neutral location for treatment or autopsy. That's just my speculation, ultimately this whole situation could be explained by malice and incompetence.